Examining Bucs-Panthers showdown for NFC South, playoff spot

The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers know they control their own destiny after devastating losses in Week 15.

Despite their struggles, there's still a lot left to play for.

They face each other in Weeks 16 and 18 -- the first at Carolina on Sunday and the second at Tampa Bay on Jan. 4. If one team sweeps the matchups, it will win the division. If they both finish with the same record, the Bucs would win the division after the tiebreaker scenarios, according to ESPN Research.

Tampa Bay currently owns the preceding tiebreaker of record against common opponents. The Bucs are 5-5, and the Panthers are 4-6.

Neither team is playing at a consistently high level that should give it confidence a sweep is certain. The Bucs (7-7) have lost two straight and five of their past six games. The Panthers (7-7) haven't had consecutive wins since mid-October and have lost four of their past seven games.

Inconsistency is the biggest concern of Panthers coach Dave Canales, who said Monday, "This team is trying to find an identity of professionalism, of maturity, to just have that consistent outcome weekly.''

Bucs coach Todd Bowles summed up his concern after losing to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday with an expletive-laced postgame news conference. He spoke a lot about player accountability after his team blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, saying, "There is no f---ing answer for it."

If you're looking for straightforward advantages, the Bucs have won five in a row against Carolina since quarterback Bryce Young was selected No. 1 in 2023 and nine of the past 10 since 2020. The Bucs have won the past four NFC South titles. Carolina's last division title came in 2015, ending a string of three straight.

If you're looking for an unusual advantage, the Panthers are an NFL-worst 0-12 as the betting favorite since 2021. On Tuesday, they were 3-point underdogs, according to DraftKings, for the matchup Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox). All seven of Carolina's wins this season came as underdogs.

Coming into Week 16, the Bucs have a 75.4% chance to win the division, according to ESPN Analytics, but they still have to play the games.

"It's a three-game season," Bucs All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs said. "You've just got to lock in for three weeks and get it done, honestly. At the end of the day, just get the job done."

Here's a look at how each team can win the division, with NFL Nation reporters Jenna Laine (Bucs) and David Newton (Panthers) weighing in:

Incumbent NFC South champs: Buccaneers

Chances to get in with a head-to-head split (FPI): 81.5%

What do the Buccaneers need to do to get in?

The easiest way is to win the next two games. If the Bucs were to lose one of those, well, it could be a win-and-get-in scenario come Week 18. If the Panthers were to drop their next two games, the Bucs also would be in, regardless of the outcome the final week.

What are their biggest hurdles?

The Bucs' once-lauded red zone defense is surrendering a 72.2% red zone efficiency rating to opponents -- the worst (by 10 percentage points) in the Bowles era as head coach from 2023 to 2025 and defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2022. In terms of drives, 26.8% have ended in touchdowns, also the worst of the Bowles era and eighth worst in the league. That number jumps to 35.5% in the fourth quarter. They're also not generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they're missing tackles, they're blowing assignments in pass coverage and they're giving up chunk running plays (this was all on full display against the Falcons).

Can the offense get back on track now that it's getting healthy?

The return of receiver Mike Evans in Week 14 from a broken collarbone in Week 7 can't be overstated. The Bucs lost, but Evans' 132 receiving yards marked only the fifth 100-yard performance from a Bucs receiver this season and first since Week 10. Baker Mayfield completed more passes of 15 or more yards downfield (six) than he had in the previous six games combined when he was without Evans.

His return takes the strain off rookie Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan (fractured neck) made his season debut as well. But the issue right now is that Mayfield has not been accurate since sustaining a sprained AC joint in his left (non-throwing) arm. His off-target percentages the past two weeks (21.9% and 24.1%) represent his worst two-game stretch of the season. -- Laine

NFC South challenger: Panthers

Chances to get in with a head-to-head split (FPI): 18.5%

What do the Panthers need to do to get in?

Sweeping the Bucs is the best guarantee. Anything else, and they need help. For Carolina to make the playoffs with a split, it would need to win its game against the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) and the Buccaneers would need to lose their game against the Miami Dolphins (6-8), who could be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, in Week 17.

What are their biggest hurdles?

Inconsistency by the team and Young. As mentioned above, the Panthers haven't won consecutive games since October, so that likely rules out splitting the series and beating Seattle in between. However, if they continue their current trend of winning every other game, that would mean a sweep of the Bucs and a loss to the Seahawks.

Beating Seattle at home in Week 17 is a tall task considering the Seahawks could exit Thursday's game against the Los Angeles Rams as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Ultimately, this could come down to how well Young plays. When he doesn't turn the ball over and the Panthers have the run game going, that typically means good things for Carolina.

What's happened to rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan?

The rookie has been a huge part of the team's success. He averaged 4.9 catches in the first 11 games, but over the past three games, the yards and catches have slowed for the team's leading receiver -- catching five passes on 13 targets for 103 yards. The saving grace is he's had two touchdown catches. Getting him more involved against a Tampa Bay defense ranked 30th in pass yards allowed (246.9) could bode well for the offense. -- Newton