Death, taxes and, seemingly, the Waratahs failing to meet expectations.
For a third straight season Australia's alleged glamour Super Rugby Pacific club will almost certainly fail to reach the play-offs, despite the spread of international talent -- including Australia's highest paid player Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii -- and an experienced coaching team featuring Dan McKellar and assistant Mike Catt.
Yes, with three games to play the Waratahs remain a mathematical chance of climbing their way into the top six. But that only requires beating the Drua in Fiji, the Brumbies, and the Force in Perth, all the while hoping for losses from the Reds, Highlanders and the Brumbies. NSW fans won't be getting their hopes up.
And would anything be gained by extending their season another week anyway? The Waratahs would likely be trounced by the Hurricanes or Chiefs in the opening week of the finals -- having already suffered at the hands of both Kiwi teams -- so limp have been their performances been since their drought-breaking win over the Brumbies in Canberra in March.
The Waratahs barely landed a punch against the Western Force in Round 12 in what can only be described as one of the most uninspiring Super Rugby games ever played, before they followed up the performance a week later with a five-point loss to the Highlanders in Dunedin after falling to a 28-7 deficit at the halftime break.
Now with just three rounds remaining, having four wins and seven losses, the Waratahs' season has ostensibly come to an end. But what went wrong? And how did they end up here once more?
THE ISSUES UP FRONT
There was so much promise at the start of the year following an offseason full of strong recruitment.
Depth was added at lock, the back-row gained muscle and experience in Pete Samu and the front-row, despite losing star Wallabies prop Angus Bell, looked solid enough. But as the season has worn on it's become clear the big men of the forward pack haven't met the physical challenge, and have struggled to find a way to bend and break the defensive line.
Matt Philip has performed admirably, leading from the front and carrying the team on his back, but no pack can rely so much on a single player, and the Waratahs have suffered for it.
Against the Highlanders on Saturday their scrum was decimated, marched back and dominated, their lineout too suffered as hooker Ethan Dobbins failed to find his target on multiple occasions, while their defensive line was shredded in the first half, before they finished the game with 30 missed tackles and a 75% efficiency rate. It's a trend that's been growing all season. A week earlier against the Force, McKellar suggested the team had been "squeezed" and "bullied" out of the game, having been forced to make 285 tackles. Put simply, NSW were blown off the ball.
The perfect example came on Saturday in the 63rd minute when the Waratahs took a tap five metres from the line. Sending it straight to Jack Barrett, the replacement prop was pushed backwards, before Pete Samu attempted to break the line only to go straight to ground where his cleaners failed to blow a single Highlanders player away from the ruck. A perfect try-scoring opportunity squandered.
What happened to the forward pack that muscled up and gave it to the Brumbies in Canberra two months ago?
As the forward pack has failed to create a solid set-piece or get any go-forward, the attack has suffered because of it. They made just two entries into the Force's 22 in the second half two weeks ago, while they were forced to play catch up throughout the second half in Dunedin.
For three straight weeks the Waratahs have failed to bring a level of physicality or staunchness that is required to compete at Super Rugby level.
THE SUAALII PROBLEM
Lauded by then Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan as one of the biggest signings for the sport in Australia, Suaalii has only delivered sparing glimpses of his talent at NSW. At an alleged $1.6 million per season, Suaalii hasn't exactly screamed value for money in the blue jersey.
The Waratahs have yet to see the best of their "Ferrari" after he broke down in March with a hamstring injury, while a fractured jaw last year sidelined him for a month. Returning against the Force two weeks ago, he had just three carries for two metres, improving to 14 carries for 74 metres against the Highlanders. But the Highlanders spent 30 minutes a player down in the centres.
While there were flashes of his attacking brilliance at times on Saturday, the question continues to be asked: Where is Suaalii's best position?
Thrust into outside centre in his Wallabies debut -- a game in which he was named man of the match after he led the side to a drought-breaking 42-37 victory over England at Twickenham -- the 22-year-old has struggled to find the same kind of impact for the Waratahs and could struggle to earn himself a starting spot for the Wallabies for the Nations Championship in July, given Hunter Paisami's recent run of form and Len Ikitau's skill set.
While he made his debut at fullback under Dan McKellar last year -- and was named in the Super Rugby Team of the Season -- he has since primarily been used in the centres. Whether that's been an edict from Joe Schmidt or McKellar's decision, Suaalii has often been left short on space, with calls for him to move to the back three growing louder by the week.
Only a week ago former Wallabies and Stan Sport commentators Morgan Turinui and Michael Hooper were advocating for the switch with Turinui calling on McKellar to be "selfish".
"I think it's time to shelve that 13 experiment [for Suaalii]," said Turinui. "I understand at the Wallabies it might be different, but at the Waratahs they've got to be somewhat selfish, or more than selfish now.
"It's not just about how many touches he gets, it's the situation of those touches. He's just got to find some space. I think he's very much a get-the-ball-in-his-hands-early guy and let him create.
"I'm not sure he's a hit-the-line, hit-the-hole-hard [ball-carrier] -- and then he's going to carry over with three guys hanging off him, get us over the gain line, we play off the back.
"That's the way I'd do it. I haven't seen any evidence to change my mind."
Currently the side's most impactful strike weapon, Max Jorgensen, has been shifted to fullback with Andrew Kellaway battling injury and form, and youngster Sid Harvey still growing into Super Rugby, but the move has curtailed the speedster's game-breaking ability with the side missing his dynamism on the edge. Meanwhile, Triston Reilly has shown he was more than capable in limited appearances in the 13 jersey during Suaalii's absence earlier this season.
A move back would also help Suaalii's defensive frailties that have been exposed several times, including against the Highlanders, with his penchant for shooting out of the line often leaving the Waratahs exposed.
Given Suaalii's moments of brilliance come from space and in the air, it would seem a no-brainer to push him into the back three, giving him time and space and the advantage of seeing the gaps to manipulate. He has the potential to be as destructive as code-hopper Israel Folau was for the Waratahs, he need only be played in the same position.
The eternal search for a No. 10
While the Suaalii conundrum continues to plague the Waratahs, so too does their endless search for a fly-half around which they can build a team.
Lawson Creighton, Jack Debrezceni and, as of this week, Jack Bowen, have all donned the No. 10 jersey. As early as March, the Waratahs' attacking stats started to tumble with their ability to score, once inside the opponent's redzone, dropping drastically to just 31% by Round 5.
Yes, critical ball-handling errors and execution has played a large role in this, but so too has the lack of direction from their playmakers.
Creighton was handed the reins at the start of the season but has struggled with form, and later slotted into the centres in the absence of Suaalii, bringing Debreczeni into the starting playmaker role. While he has proven a steadying hand at times, and now has 100 games worth of Super Rugby experience, he too has struggled to get one of Australia's most expensive backlines humming.
Now Bowen has been thrown the challenge of steering the team around in Fiji, knowing that he is likely playing for a new contract. Creighton and Debreczeni are also still without deals for next year, suggesting the Waratahs' search for their first regular No. 10 since the days of Bernard Foley, will wage on for a while yet.
What does the future hold?
With the Waratahs highly likely to miss the playoffs for the second straight season, despite an influx of quality talent, McKellar's position is firmly under the microscope. The likelihood that he is shown the door a season early is low, but the pressure will be on the coach to get the best out of his side in their final three fixtures of the season.
If Rugby Australia -- who now owns and operates the Waratahs -- retains the coach for his final year of his contract, expectations would be that he gets performances on the board early next season, especially given the arrival of NRL convert Angus Crichton ahead of the Rugby World Cup. The emergence of Sid Harvey has meanwhile been a rare positive this season, while brilliant Brumbies on-baller Luke Reimer will also join NSW next season. And Angus Bell will be back from his Ulster sabbatical.
But if McKellar fails to bring the roster together, unlocking Suaalii and Crichton as dominant attacking threats through the opening few rounds, then the coach might be doing well to survive the season, let alone secure a contract extension.