The downside of this unusually polarised AFL season is the paucity of big team clashes we've been able to enjoy over the back half of 2025. And the upside? We're about to find out.
Before the weekend's games, just two games (or eight match points) separated the entire top eight. That is a significantly greater squeeze than the top has known previously. Indeed, there were a couple of years between 2008-11 that the gap between first and eight was routinely eight to nine wins.
It's not just a statistical quirk, either. Glance at this year's flag contenders and you'll see a lot of sides who are, on a good day, capable of giving the premiership a serious shake, but who, when they're "off", can stink it up more like a wooden spoon contender.
Who's going to keep it together long enough to take out the 2025 AFL premiership? With just one round left to play, here's my "flag likelihood" order. See what you think.
1. Brisbane
It's so hard to make any definitive statements about any of this year's finalists or premiership candidates. But here's at least one to which I'm happy to attach my name: Brisbane's best football IS the best of any team. There's an explosiveness and power about the Lions which I don't think any other team can match. It was certainly on show again on Friday in the 57-point demolition of Fremantle in Perth, their ninth win from 12 games on the road this season. Perhaps most importantly now, though, the Lions don't need the Gabba to be a serious chance. They proved it in last year's finals, and this year, with their record on the road. Will take a heap of stopping now.
2. Geelong
Geelong was my premiership tip preseason. I've been comfortable sticking with them all season and if anything, even more so now. They have no shortage of observers desperately baying for their failure for various reasons, but you can't will this ultra-professional club and team into submission. And for me, whilst Brisbane's best may be best, if I had to pick one of these teams to play for my life on Grand Final day, I'd probably still choose Geelong. The Cats have been consistent all season (11 wins from their last 13 games now), know the ropes, have a multitude of gears, spread the workload brilliantly, and have the healthiest, least-injured list of any team left in the race.
3. Adelaide
If there were any lingering doubts over the flag credentials of the Crows, surely Saturday's tough-as-nails win over Collingwood dispels them. OK, so they haven't served the traditional finals apprenticeship (not having appeared since 2017). But they're the No.1 side in the comp defensively, No.3 offensively, with five players having kicked more than 30 goals already, and are solid in all the important midfield contest and pressure stats. Saturday night's mini-final was as very welcome taste of how finals will most likely play out, and provided the Crows knock over North Melbourne, they could play two home finals on their way to the big one. It's as smooth a finals route as you could ask for.
4. Collingwood
This will definitely annoy people. Tough. And yes, I'll still have the Pies fourth-most likely premier even if they end up missing out on a top four spot. Why? Well, yes, I know they've lost six of their last seven games now. I also know they have as good a knack of turning it on when most required as any team in the running. Sure, the system is scratchy, as 71 inside 50s for just 8.8 will testify. The other side of that coin, however, is that those opportunities were created against a team boasting the best defensive setup in the AFL and which concedes on average just 49 entries. The Pies conceded just nine goals against a potent forward line and without key backman Jeremy Howe. And they've already beaten Brisbane, Adelaide, and very nearly Gelong. For mine, the Pies are still in this right up to their necks.
5. Western Bulldogs
Yep, they're not even certain to make the eight. But if they do, I reckon the Bulldogs are a bigger chance of going all the way than Hawthorn, the Giants, Fremantle, or Gold Coast. Why? Star power, potency, experience. Bontempelli, Liberatore, Richards, Dale, Darcy, for starters, is a more-than-handy quintet when it comes to class. The Dogs are the No.1 offensive team in the AFL, with a luxury of scoring sources perhaps only Adelaide and Geelong can match. Experience? The Dogs have 27 players on their books who have played AFL finals. Only the Cats have more. Oh, one extra string to the bow? Consistency. The Dogs don't get blown away. Every one of their eight losses has been by 22 points or less. If any side can win the flag from the lower reaches of the eight, it's these guys.
6. Hawthorn
The Hawks will end this season at worst matching last year's home-and-away win-loss tally, but in my view without having looked as dangerous or having built the sort of momentum required to give the flag a serious shake. And a loss to Brisbane at the Gabba this week could quite possibly put them in an elimination final against Collingwood, having beaten up on the Pies the other week but also having been smashed by them earlier this season. Will Day and Josh Weddle remain huge casualties. Have the Hawks got quite enough class without the pair of them in the mix? I have serious doubts.
7. Greater Western Sydney
The Giants' best was certainly delivered against the Suns on Saturday. Then again, their disappearing act against the Bulldogs a couple of weeks back doesn't augur well for a finals campaign, particularly seeing there's a very good chance GWS will end up playing the Dogs again in an elimination final. There's no doubt Adam Kingsley's team has chalked up some decent wins (Collingwood by lots, Geelong twice, and Brisbane away) and they've quietly racked up eight wins from their past nine games. The Giants are potent in attack, solid enough in defence, where Sam Taylor is a gun, but sometimes their midfield group can drop off a cliff even with stars like Tom Green and Finn Callaghan. In short, I think they could pull off a finals upset. But three or four in a row? Nope.
8. Gold Coast
Gold Coast will almost certainly at least play finals for the first time, and that alone deserves kudos. And if the Suns win both games against Port Adelaide and Essendon, they potentially go into a first September campaign with a double chance. But there were already enough reasons to wonder whether Damien Hardwick's team could play a big part in September before it got flogged a month ago against Adelaide, then again on Saturday against GWS, two significant shellackings at the hands of finals rivals. What is becoming increasingly clear is that when midfield pair Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell are both held in relative check, the Suns don't have enough alternative sources of drive. The loss of Daniel Rioli has also been significant. I do think the Suns will still make it. I don't think they'll last long, however.
9. Fremantle
Another cruel blow awaits the Dockers, who fell from third on the ladder with only four games remaining to miss out on finals altogether last year, and now look most likely to be the team pipped at the finals post, amazingly, despite recording 15 wins. To avoid that fate, the Dockers will need to beat the Bulldogs under the roof at Marvel Stadium. That's a tough break indeed for a team which had won 11 of its last 12 prior to Friday's defeat at the hands of Brisbane. But it's just those little slip-ups of attitude now and again for Freo which find them out in this sort of company, with three losses all of 10-goals or more to Geelong, St Kilda, and now the Lions. They're not unforgivable stumbles in the context of a 23-game season. But in the tightest top eight ever, sadly for the Dockers, they're going to prove fatal.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.