Who will be AFL premier in 2025? By the end of the month we'll have the answer to this pressing question, but a month is a long time to wait! So, on the eve of finals, we've ranked all eight teams, giving each their chance (in percentages) of winning the flag.
There's no exact science to this, rather current vibes, the draw, and a gut feel on how each team's September campaign might unfold, taking into account some input from Champion Data, as well.
8. GOLD COAST (1% premiership chance)
Do the Suns pass the very unofficial captain on the dais test? You know, if you close your eyes, can you imagine Noah Anderson in the middle of the MCG holding the premiership cup aloft as red and yellow streamers fall to the turf? I can't ... at least not this year. Gold Coast has improved drastically under Damien Hardwick but this team is still incredibly difficult to trust and I caution you all about getting sucked in after they humiliated Essendon last week. Add in the fact this is literally the club's first finals appearance, and it feels almost impossible they could reel off four consecutive wins on the road, something they've never managed in a single season. I'll call them a 100-1 shot, and even that feels a tad generous.
7. FREMANTLE (3% premiership chance)
I had the Dockers playing in a Grand Final at the beginning of the season, but I'm not sure they're going to get there from outside the top four, let alone win it. If they beat the Suns at Optus Stadium on Saturday night, they'll then have to travel to face the loser of Geelong-Brisbane, then travel again to play the winner of Adelaide-Collingwood. Tough. And that's just to make the Grand Final! Like the Suns, there's been tremendous growth all over the park, and I the direction this club is heading, but a flag in 2025 just feels a bridge too far. It's also worth noting that while Fremantle may have won 16 games this season, their percentage of 'just' 109 -- easily the lowest of any finalist -- is somewhat concerning. Percentage is one of the great indicators of how a team has fared over the course of a year and the Dockers aren't really winning the season by that much, if that makes sense.
6. HAWTHORN (6% premiership chance)
The Hawks may have finished below both the Suns and Dockers but there's more -- albeit just a little more -- chance they do serious September damage. Sam Mitchell's squad got a taste of finals football last season, belting the Bulldogs at the MCG before falling agonisingly short against the Power on the road. Those eight quarters of high-stakes footy will hold them in great stead ahead of their elimination final against the Giants on Sunday afternoon. Should they win that game, the Hawks will have a 50% shot at a 'home' semifinal, then a 50% shot at a 'home' preliminary final, and, obviously, a 100% 'home' Grand Final, should they make it that far. You can't say the same for any other 5-8 ranked team. Having said that, I still have major concerns over their midfield, particularly with Will Day now sidelined for the year. I'm just not sure there's enough firepower to mix it with some of these other sides.
5. GWS (9% premiership chance)
The Giants are lurking and they're incredibly dangerous. If this side had earned one more premiership point throughout the home and away season, they'd be facing the Crows in a qualifying final and bee a decent shot of causing the upset. But I digress, GWS will instead host the Hawks in a must-win elimination final. Adam Kingsley's side might just be peaking at the right time, having won nine of their last 10 games, including going 4-0 against fellow top eight sides. The Giants could also be set to welcome back a host of best 23 talents, including Jack Buckley, Jesse Hogan, Josh Kelly, and Jake Stringer. But maybe the reason I'm bullish -- of sorts -- on this club is that it really has something to prove after last year's catastrophic semifinal loss to eventual premier Brisbane. Call me crazy, but I reckon that's lit a fire under them and worth an extra percentage point or two.
4. COLLINGWOOD (16% premiership chance)
Anyone writing the Magpies off, or even doubting whether they have what it takes to be premier this season, is simply out of their mind. Are they as likely to win the flag as when they were riding high at 14-2 and two games clear atop the ladder? Obviously not, but they've still got the double chance up their sleeve and nobody should be surprised in the slightest if they upset the Crows on Thursday night in Adelaide. Don't forget, the average winning margin between these two sides over the last six games is an extraordinary 4.16 points! Collingwood has valuable, recent finals experience, something you cannot take for granted or underestimate. They've got a proven premiership coach in Craig McRae and, as much as some footy fans like to scoff, maybe the best player in the competition in Nick Daicos. This side is far from finished in 2025.
3. BRISBANE (19% premiership chance)
We have proof of concept with the Lions, and for that, they must be one of three most likely to lift this year's premiership cup. And if you wanted to argue they should be a slot higher on these rankings, I probably wouldn't fight you too hard. Brisbane has had a somewhat underrated flag defence, finishing the home and away season in third spot, despite dealing with the retirement of Joe Daniher and injury to key personnel throughout the year. But things are clicking now, this side beating the Cats, Magpies, Dockers, and Hawks in the last two months. Would anyone be surprised if the Lions knock off Geelong on Friday evening? I certainly wouldn't be, nor would any rational Cats fan. After all, their MCG curse is well and truly in the rear-view mirror, the Lions have won six of their past seven at the venue. And if they win this week's qualifying final, they'd earn a home prelim and just about be flag favourite. Do NOT sleep on Brisbane going back to back.
2. ADELAIDE (20% premiership chance)
The Crows have enjoyed one of the greatest one-year turnarounds in footy history. Last year, this club finished bottom four. This year it won a remarkable minor premiership. Matthew Nicks' side hasn't suffered a defeat in eight weeks, has the most potent attack in the competition, and is playing irresistible football. They also get to host Collingwood this Thursday evening in a qualifying final. That's the good news; now the bad. The loss of Izak Rankine -- likely for the entire finals series -- obviously hurts their chances to go all the way, as does the fact they'll have to get the Grand Final job done at the MCG, a ground they've played at just five times in the last 24 months for a 2-3 record. And then there's the experience factor, or lack thereof, the Crows not having featured in September since 2017. In that time, EVERY other side bar North Melbourne and Gold Coast has played at least one final.
1. GEELONG (26% premiership chance)
I've been as slow as anyone to the Cats party this year, but it's now undeniable they're the team to beat -- even I'm willing to concede that. Geelong's won 11 of its last 13 games, eight of which by 40+ points, and, over the course of the year, amassed the largest percentage of any team. As mentioned earlier, that's a pretty decent indictor they've been the team of the season. The Cats have runaway Coleman Medal winner Jeremy Cameron in tip-top form, a genuine Brownlow Medal chance in Bailey Smith, and, with Chris Scott, maybe the best coach in the competition. Geelong will start as favourites to defeat Brisbane in a qualifying final. Win that and they won't leave Victoria for the rest of the year. Even a loss will hardly be catastrophic for this side, as they'd host the winner of the Dockers-Suns at the MCG. Yep, the Cats are the team to beat this finals series.
The 2025 AFL Finals series begins Thursday Sept. 4, when minor premiers Adelaide host Collingwood at the Adelaide Oval.
Thursday, Sept. 4:
Adelaide vs. Collingwood, Adelaide Oval, 7:40pm (AEST)
Friday, Sept. 5:
Geelong vs. Brisbane, MCG, 7:40pm (AEST)
Saturday, Sept. 6:
GWS vs. Hawthorn, ENGIE Stadium, 3:15pm (AEST)
Fremantle vs. Gold Coast, Optus Stadium, 7:35pm (AEST)