The College Football Playoff selection committee members will tell you they don't rank conferences -- they rank teams -- but the Big Ten and SEC are leading the way in nonconference wins that will impact the committee's rankings through Selection Day.
According to ESPN Research, the SEC enters Week 3 with a 27-3 nonconference record (8-2 against Power 4 opponents), while the Big Ten is 31-5 (5-3 against Power 4 opponents). The Big 12 is 24-8 but 5-6 against the Power 4, and the ACC is 22-10 but 3-9 against Power 4 teams.
Those results impact the following conference-by-conference playoff breakdown -- listed in order of who is projected to have the most teams in the 12-team field.
Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each Power 4 league, and another identified as an enigma. We've also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week's top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee's ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff -- for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn't always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group's tendencies plus what each team has done to date. Mississippi State, for example, just earned a big nonconference win against Arizona State, so although the Bulldogs probably aren't ready for the CFP yet, they're still listed under Work to do to account for the upward trajectory that win provides early.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
SEC
Bubble watch spotlight: Oklahoma. The Sooners might have the best quarterback in the country with transfer John Mateer, whose true dual-threat ability was on full display in a statement win against Michigan. Mateer led the Sooners in passing and rushing in a performance that bumped them into the early playoff conversation, but if they occupy that No. 12 spot on Selection Day, they're out. With the projected Big 12 champion and Group of 5 champion looming outside of the top 12, the committee's No. 11 and No. 12 teams would get bumped out. The more pressing question, though, is whether Oklahoma has sustainability. ESPN's FPI gives the Sooners less than a 50% chance to beat Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama. Yes, Mateer gives Oklahoma's offense a dramatic boost and has revived the program's hopes of returning to national relevance, but the Sooners have to be better around him to prove the computer projections wrong.
The enigma: Alabama. Were the Tide that bad in their loss to Florida State, or are the Seminoles that good? It's probably a combination of both, but how those teams fare will impact each other's résumés in the committee meeting room all season. What if Alabama lost on the road to a top-four ACC champion? What if FSU's big win was against a five-loss Alabama team that spirals down the stretch? Alabama beat down Louisiana-Monroe 73-0 in Week 2. It was the largest shutout for Alabama since 1951. Yes, it was against a weaker opponent, but Ty Simpson still completed all 17 of his passes -- the most without an incompletion in a game in SEC history. So no, the performance against FSU wasn't good, particularly up front, but ESPN's FPI projects the Tide to win each of their remaining games -- except on Sept. 27 at Georgia, which is a coin toss (53.6% chance for the Dawgs). If Alabama is a two-loss team with losses to the ACC and SEC champs ... it's in the playoff.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas (63%), Georgia (62.4%), Tennessee (53%), LSU (26.5%)
Work to do: Ole Miss (59.8%), Alabama (48.6%), Auburn (33.3%), Missouri (26.7%), Texas A&M (20.6%), South Carolina (19.8%), Oklahoma (19.2%), Mississippi State (1.7%)
Would be out: Arkansas (17.7%), Vanderbilt (10.7%), Florida (5.1%), Kentucky (1.3%)
Big Ten
Bubble watch spotlight: Illinois. The Illini entered this season with high expectations after returning 18 starters from a 10-win team that finished in the Top 25 last year. Saturday's win against Duke was the first real step in living up to them: a convincing road victory against a respectable program that won nine games last year. Duke was very generous in this game, surrendering five turnovers, and Illinois was hardly flawless, allowing four sacks before halftime. Illinois avoids Oregon, Michigan and Penn State this year, so it will need to take advantage of the opportunities it has, starting on Sept. 20 at Indiana. The toughest game is Oct. 11 against Ohio State, but Illinois will have home-field advantage. If Illinois loses both of those games, it could be a hard sell in the committee meeting room. The Illini would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Indiana, which could be the difference in who gets the at-large bid. If their only loss, though, is to Ohio State, even if they finish as the Big Ten runner-up, the Illini could be this year's version of 2024 Indiana. Speaking of the Hoosiers ...
The enigma: Indiana. Are the Hoosiers a playoff team again? They have a more difficult road to prove it, with three games against ranked opponents (Illinois, Oregon and Penn State) -- plus a tricky road trip to Iowa. Last year, Ohio State was the only ranked opponent Indiana faced during the regular season -- a 38-15 loss. It didn't matter, though, because IU beat everyone else it played -- soundly. The Hoosiers can't go 0-3 against the ranked teams on this season's schedule, though, and expect an at-large bid -- especially when the nonconference lineup includes Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State. ESPN's FPI gives the Hoosiers a 61.3% chance to beat Illinois, which would be critical in a debate for an at-large spot. If the Hoosiers lose to Penn State and Oregon, would it be enough to earn a spot as a two-loss team? If they look as dominant as they did last year, then possibly. It would certainly help their case if other Big Ten opponents were above .500 or ranked by the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State (82.4%), Oregon (81.5%), Penn State (54.1%)
Work to do: USC (59.3%), Indiana (21.5%), Illinois (14.1%), Wisconsin (2.6%)
Would be out: Nebraska (27.4%), Washington (7.4%), Michigan (4%), Rutgers (3.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), Iowa (0.8%), Maryland (0.5%), Michigan State (0.4%), Northwestern (0%), Purdue (0%), UCLA (0%)
ACC
Bubble watch spotlight: Clemson. The Tigers dropped out of this week's playoff projection after a second week of ho-hum offense. The LSU defense had a lot to do with making Clemson one-dimensional in the season opener, but Troy? Some of it could have been the letdown effect after losing a tough opener at home, but this is a veteran offense that has sputtered and stuttered. Clemson trailed 16-0 before scoring the final 27 points to win and avoid utter embarrassment. The Tigers needed the largest comeback the school has seen since 2020 against Boston College. Clemson earned a spot in the playoff last year as a three-loss ACC champ, so the Tigers certainly aren't eliminated. They will be, though, if they don't get that offense moving.
The enigma: Georgia Tech. With Haynes King in the lineup, Georgia Tech is a tough team capable of building upon last year's seven-win season under coach Brent Key, but is this team capable of being more than a CFP spoiler? Remember, the Jackets beat Miami last year and pushed Georgia to eight overtimes -- in Athens. This year, they avoid Miami, Florida State and SMU. Even without King, who was sidelined on Saturday with a lower-body injury, the Jackets beat overmatched Gardner-Webb 59-12 and backup quarterback Aaron Philo got some meaningful reps. The committee will learn more about both Clemson and Georgia Tech on Saturday when the Jackets host the Tigers -- a game ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 55.9% chance to win. If that happens, Georgia Tech should be favored in every remaining game -- except the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And -- gasp -- if Georgia Tech is sitting there on Selection Day having played in the ACC title game and with a lone regular-season loss to Georgia, this "enigma" is suddenly a playoff contender. The Jackets would be a lock with the ACC title, and in high consideration as a two-loss runner-up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami (33.4%), Florida State (22.8%)
Work to do: Georgia Tech (17.1%), Clemson (11.4%), SMU (8.2%)
Would be out: Louisville (5.1%), Virginia (3.2%), Pitt (2.8%), Boston College (1.8%), NC State (1.7%), Cal (0.7%), Duke (0.6%), Virginia Tech (0.5%), Syracuse (0.2%), North Carolina (0%), Stanford (0%), Wake Forest (0%)
Big 12
Bubble watch spotlight: Iowa State. The Big 12 winner will earn a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, but the ultimate champ in this wide-open league is anyone's guess. Right now, ESPN Analytics gives Utah the best chance to win the Big 12 (21.9%), followed by TCU (19.9%), BYU (17.7%) and then Iowa State (9.5%). The Cyclones, though, would have a slight edge with the committee because of two Power 4 wins against Kansas State and rival Iowa. Still, the league isn't represented in our latest projection of the committee's top 12. That's because other teams have better résumés or have looked better (or a combination of both), and because Iowa State's season-opening win against K-State will be devalued a bit after the Wildcats lost to Army (which lost to Tarleton State!). The committee also looks at opponents' opponents. ESPN's FPI projects Iowa State will lose to both BYU and TCU, but this is the kind of conference race that should go into late November -- like it did last year. A two-loss Big 12 champ is in, but anything less than a title would open the door for debate.
The enigma: Texas Tech. The boosters have poured money by the bucketful into a highly rated class of 22 transfers. Billionaire Cody Campbell said publicly the school's collective has raised $63.3 million since it was formed in 2022. And coach Joey McGuire was quoted this summer in the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal saying it's "the best roster I've ever been a part of." Now it's time to see if they got their money's worth. So far, the Red Raiders have scored 129 points in two games -- albeit against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State. ESPN's FPI says Texas Tech will lose two regular-season games -- Sept. 20 at Utah and Nov. 8 against BYU. And the Oct. 18 trip to Arizona State is a 50-50 game. If Texas Tech finishes the regular season as a two-loss team -- and doesn't win the Big 12 -- it probably won't have a résumé impressive enough for an at-large bid. If the Red Raiders' lone loss is a close one in the Big 12 title game, though, it would give the league a strong chance at two CFP teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Iowa State (12.9%)
Work to do: Utah (27.2%), TCU (24.8%), BYU (22.8%), Texas Tech (11.1%), Baylor (5.7%)
Would be out: Kansas (6.3%), Arizona (3.4%), Arizona State (3.1%), UCF (1.7%), Houston (1.1%), Cincinnati (0.9%), Kansas State (0.7%), Colorado (0.4%), West Virginia (0.1%), Oklahoma State (0%)
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame (24%). This is a team the committee would like better than the computers right now, as the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Notre Dame the 18th-best chance of getting into the playoff -- behind the likes of Auburn, Nebraska and TCU. The close loss at Miami didn't doom the Irish. A home loss on Saturday to Texas A&M, though, and the Irish are in trouble. ESPN's FPI gives Notre Dame a 71.2% chance to win at home -- and the second-best chance in the country to win out (behind Ohio State). If that happens, and Notre Dame finishes as a one-loss team (possibly to the ACC champs), the committee would consider Notre Dame for one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye. Those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions, so there's no ceiling anymore for the independent Irish. Without a conference championship game, though, Notre Dame's résumé has to stand on its own on Selection Day. That's why a second loss could be so damaging -- there's no opportunity to lock up a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and there's not another chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. So, if the Irish start 0-2, even if they run the table, they will have to bank on wins against the likes of Arkansas, Boise State, USC, Navy and Syracuse to earn an at-large bid. It seems ... like a stretch.
Group of 5
Bubble watch spotlight: South Florida. The Bulls have already defeated the computers, which projected an 0-2 start. Now, with statement wins against Boise State and Florida -- two teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time -- South Florida is leading the race for a Group of 5 playoff spot. ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 72.3% chance to beat South Florida at home on Saturday, but even if the Bulls lose, they will still impress the selection committee with their 2-0 start. If South Florida wins the American Conference, it should earn a spot in the playoff because it's going to be hard for another Group of 5 champion to finish with a better résumé. Things could get interesting if South Florida runs the table but loses in its conference title game. The committee would consider the Bulls for an at-large spot along with the top Group of 5 champion. With regular-season wins against Boise State, Florida and Miami -- especially if the Canes win the ACC -- no other Group of 5 team would beat that résumé. Only two weeks into the season, South Florida is already ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, trailing only Ohio State and Florida State. The selection committee is using a similar metric this season to help evaluate how teams performed against their schedules.
The enigma: Tulane. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Tulane has the second-best chance in the American to reach the playoff (19.8%) behind South Florida. The Green Wave earned a Power 4 win in their opener, albeit at home against an unranked Northwestern team. Tulane has another chance to start to separate itself from the other Group of 5 contenders on Saturday against Duke, but the biggest opportunity will be on Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. This would be even more impressive than South Florida's win at The Swamp because the Rebels look like a tougher opponent. ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss an 87.3% chance to win.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida (34%)
Work to do: Tulane (19.8%), Memphis (16.6%), UNLV (11.1%), Navy (2.8%)