Pat Cummins' Ashes preparation has been compromised after a scan revealed lumbar bone stress in his lower back which has ruled him out of the three white-ball series against New Zealand and India. It leaves the potential that he won't play any cricket ahead of the England series which starts on November 21 in Perth.
Cummins, Australia's Test and ODI captain, has not played since the Test tour of the Caribbean where his bowling workloads were significantly lower than usual. He missed the five T20Is against West Indies and both series against South Africa that followed which was a long-held plan to given him a 10-week physical build-up to the Test summer in a similar vein to last year.
But Cummins experienced some back soreness post the Caribbean tour that lingered much longer than expected and a routine scan on Monday showed the bone stress, otherwise known as a hot spot, which can be a precursor to a stress fracture. However, he has been cleared of any fracture in his lower spine and there remains confidence he will be fit for the opening Test against England.
"There always was a de-load planned for him post that West Indies Test series, and then he's just reported that he had a little bit of ongoing back soreness as part of that, and [the scan] just identified a little bit of lumbar bone stress," chair of selectors George Bailey said. "I think the focus for him has and will continue to be just preparation for that [Ashes] Test series.
"So there'll just be some further management and a little bit of rehab around that. But in terms of plan for the Ashes, I don't think too much will change. There still feels like there's plenty of time. But there's full expectation that Pat will be right to go come the first Test."
Cummins was plagued by stress fractures across the first six years of his international career and did not play a Test match between his debut in 2011 and his second Test in India in 2017.
Since that time he has been incredibly durable with various minor issues, including an ankle injury and a hamstring issue, being managed without him missing large chunks of cricket.
This back issue will be a concern given his overall bowling loads have been much lower in 2025. He had bowled 400-plus overs in all cricket in each of the last three calendar years but has only bowled 175.1 overs through nine months of 2025, including just 95.1 across the four Tests recently in June and July against South Africa and West Indies. Even with a handful of ODIs and a possible planned Sheffield Shield game as well as the first four Ashes Test before the end of the year he was likely to fall well short of 400 overs this year.
Cummins went into last summer deliberately underdone playing one 50-over match for New South Wales and two ODIs against Pakistan before the first Test against India. He was rusty as a result in the first Test in Perth when Australia were beaten heavily. But his freshness showed at the back end of the series as he was Player of the Match in the fourth Test in Melbourne and took five key wickets in the final Test in Sydney while India's Jasprit Bumrah went down with a back injury following an unsustainable bowling load.
Cummins said after the West Indies series in July this year that he planned to play in New Zealand and then against India in the ODIs, as well as potentially play a Sheffield Shield game.
He now has just 11 weeks for the hot spot to settle and it would seem highly unlikely, although not impossible, that he could play any cricket before the Ashes starts. There is a domestic one-day game between NSW and Queensland in Sydney on November 3 that could present a chance for some capped competitive overs if his back has settled in time, without being locked into a four-day Sheffield Shield game. NSW's last Sheffield Shield match before the first Test, against Victoria at the SCG, starts on November 10.
"I think he's one, certainly skill wise, that has entered summers at different stages without a great amount of match balls at different times," Bailey said. "Given how far out we are there's the potential for some Shield cricket in the lead-up. There's still options there. If it got to the stage where they were taken off the table, I still think that we'd be comfortable with Pat's experience and skill level."
The injury also presents a possibility that Cummins will not be able to play and captain all five Tests. There are eight-day breaks following each of the first and second Tests but those breaks shorten to just four days after the third and fourth, putting major strain on the ability of fast bowlers on both sides to back up later in the series.
Steven Smith will likely captain Australia if Cummins were to miss any of the Tests. Smith led Australia in the two Tests against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka earlier this year when Cummins missed due to an ankle issue and the birth of his second child. Smith also captained one Test in the last Ashes series in Australia in December 2021 when Cummins was ruled out of the second match in Adelaide due to the Covid-19 rules in place at the time.
Overall, Smith has captained six times in Cummins' absence since returning to the vice-captaincy in 2021. Travis Head is also formally a Test vice-captain but it would be unlikely he would be called upon to deputise if Smith is in the XI.
On a bowling front, Australia have a ready-made replacement in Scott Boland, but should another injury occur to either Josh Hazlewood or Mitchell Starc then the likes of Michael Neser and the uncapped pair of Brendan Doggett and Sean Abbott will come into the frame.
Jhye Richardson is hopeful he can be fit by the time the Ashes starts but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and has only just started bowling again and won't be able to throw properly. Lance Morris is out for the summer after opting to have back surgery following another stress fracture.
Hazlewood and Starc's management will become critical in the lead into the Ashes. Starc's retirement from T20Is means he will likely play the ODIs against India and at least one Shield game for New South Wales before the first Test, as he did last summer.
Hazlewood will play the T20Is in New Zealand, but almost certainly won't play all three in four days. He, too, will likely play some of the ODIs and at least one Shield game before Perth. Last summer he played one Shield game and one ODI but broke down with a side strain in Perth before returning for the third Test in Brisbane only to injure his calf and miss the rest of the summer.
CA will also be extra vigilant in managing allrounder Cameron Green ahead of the Ashes as he returns to bowling for the first time since back surgery last year. Green will not tour New Zealand and will instead play the first Shield round for Western Australia starting on October 4. It is likely he will play three Shield games and potentially only one ODI before the Ashes begins to build up his bowling loads.
Cummins' back issue could also influence Australia's selection in the Ashes. There had been a thought that Australia did not need the luxury of two allrounders in the same Ashes XI with Green's return to bowling potential making the in-form Beau Webster surplus to requirements. But having two allrounders in the same XI could significantly aid Cummins' chances of playing while managing his workloads given Australia could have five genuine seam options plus Nathan Lyon to spread the overs across.