The start of the NFL season is closing in fast, which means casual and sharp sports bettors alike are gearing up to bet on the league. The options are endless; you can bet the spread, money line, totals, player props, futures ... just about anything you can think of.
But how do you win?
You will not reliably beat sportsbooks by betting on your favorite teams and players sight unseen. Sportsbooks have tons of institutional knowledge and data scientists working around the clock to set the best possible lines. It's very difficult to beat them on your own.
So, consume content. Tail professional bettors who you are confident know their stuff and have a proven track record of profitably betting. Listen to NFL podcasts, watch NFL shows and make informed decisions.
If you're looking for the basics of betting, this is a good place to start. If you're ready to talk strategy, here are some tips to help you on your way.
Consider taking spreads and totals early in the week -- before they move
If you like getting your spread bets in mere minutes before kickoff, that's fine -- but it's not optimal. Lookahead lines for NFL spreads and totals are often posted one week in advance -- i.e. there are Week 6 lines available in Week 5 -- although taking these can be risky, as injuries can dramatically affect lines. Those lookahead lines are taken down during the Week 5 action and then are reposted Sunday evening in anticipation of Week 6.
You can get some good prices with the early lines. Totals can move three points -- sometimes more! -- over the course of the week and, critically, they can roll right through key numbers. Spreads can move in much the same way. If you were betting right after the Miami Dolphins' 70-point bonanza against the Denver Broncos in Week 3 of the 2023 season, it might have been wise to grab the Dolphins against the spread, or the full game total, when the Week 4 line dropped on Monday. You're anticipating a move in the market and trying to secure "closing line value" (CLV) -- a mathematical edge in which the ticket you're holding has better odds than what will be available right before kickoff.
Betting early in the week comes with risks. Nagging injuries and subsequent availability won't be made clear until Wednesday or later, so betting early can get you burned. But it's generally a good practice, especially for those playing close attention to the league.
Know your key numbers
In the NFL, unlike in basketball and in baseball, total scores and point margins are fairly discrete. Because points are largely scored in increments of sevens (touchdowns) and threes (field goals), certain point totals appear more than others, and certain winning margins are more common than others.
Spreads are more significant than point totals here. There is a much bigger difference between a -6.5 favorite and a -7.5 favorite than there is between a -4.5 favorite and -5.5 favorite. In the former example, the market now believes the second team will win by more than a touchdown, whereas in the latter example, the favorite still wins by a touchdown, and the underdog still covers on a field goal victory. According to Covers.com, roughly 15% of games end with a three-point margin of victory, and 9% end with a seven-point margin of victory.
Key numbers are far more esoteric, but still significant, when it comes to totals. Again, because an NFL total score is most often formed by some combination of sevens and threes, certain totals show up more than others. Forty-four is one of the most common NFL totals (five touchdowns, three field goals). So is 51 (six touchdowns, three field goals), as well as 41 (five touchdowns, two field goals). As more teams attempt 2-point conversions in late-game situations, these totals diminish in significance slightly -- but not enough to fall out of relevance.
When considering taking a total, especially early in the week, look at how it has moved relative to key numbers. If a 50.5 total is taking money to the over, know that getting in before it moves to 51.5 is significantly more meaningful than getting 51.5 before it moves to 52.5. If a line has moved from 44.5 to 43.5, know that far more money to the under has adjusted that line than in another game in which the total moved from 39.5 to 38.5.
Strive to take unders on player props
The betting advice that is most difficult to stomach is often the most shrewd; it's hard to take only overs and succeed in your player prop betting -- no matter how much more fun it is to root for an over than an under. Over the past three seasons, single-game rushing yardage overs have never beaten the closing line at ESPN BET more often than not; they've won 47.8%, 45.5% and 47.0% of the time. The same is true of rush attempts and receptions. Receiving yards beat 50% only last year, and that was at 51% (remember, you need to win more than 54% of your prop bets if you want to make money on lines set at -115). This same trend holds true for season-long bets; try to have as many unders on win totals and player props as you have overs.
Taking exclusively overs is like swimming upstream. There's only one way to get to an over -- playing and producing -- but there are so many ways to get to an under. Midgame injury is the most obvious one, but other little edges start to add up. Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving over might look great against a pass defense until Jameson Williams takes the first play for a 70-yard touchdown -- now the Detroit Lions have a lead and are less likely to pass. Similarly, Jared Goff's passing yards over looks great, but the fact that the opposing offense really struggles means the second half is so quiet that he never clears his inflated total.
I'm not telling you never to take an over -- they're often easier to identify when you aren't betting with a model -- but if your card shows only overs, you're already at a mathematical disadvantage before a single kickoff.
Stop betting parlays so often
Betting parlays is a great way to get a viral screenshot on social media and an even greater way to lose money. With every leg that you add to your parlay, you're paying the sportsbook a greater and greater tax for placing the bet. Stop it.
Of course, sportsbooks want you to build parlays, so they incentivize them with profit boost tokens and parlay forgiveness. Same-game parlays have even worse mathematical edges than traditional parlays, and those accordingly get double the incentives. It can be easier to bet same-game parlays, and I certainly do, as those parlays tell a correlated story that regular parlays do not. But don't overestimate your cleverness. There are no deals in sports betting -- every discount the sportsbook offers you still gives the house the edge. Even in the extremely few cases where that isn't true, it's a loss leader to get you hooked on betting parlays and chasing big wins.
If you must bet parlays -- which again, you do not have to do, but I acknowledge that they are very fun, and I certainly bet them myself -- do so only with the profit boosts and no-sweat tokens that at least make the house's edge a little less sharp.
Early bets to consider
Chuba Hubbard to go UNDER 925.5 rushing yards (-115) 
Hubbard has been an important linchpin in the Carolina Panthers' offense for the past two seasons, totaling 238 and 250 carries for 902 and 1,195 yards, respectively. But the under is the play here, as the Panthers clearly want their offense to become less reliant on Hubbard. They drafted another running back in Trevor Etienne, one year after taking Jonathon Brooks with a second-round pick. Brooks has been ruled out for the 2025 NFL season, but Rico Dowdle, who ran for 1,000 yards with the Cowboys last year, was also signed in free agency as a backup. Hubbard could see his time split.
The Panthers could also just run the ball less overall. Bryce Young had his strongest stretch of games at the end of last season, and with first-round investments at receiver in Tetairoa McMillan (2025 draft) and Xavier Legette (2024 draft), it's fair to expect the Panthers to drop back a little more often this season. It becomes tough to get Hubbard, who isn't particularly explosive and needs volume to stack up big yardage, over 925 yards.
Breece Hall to have UNDER 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-145)
I don't particularly understand this one. Hall has never had more than five rushing touchdowns in a season (four, five and five through three years as a pro) -- and that's with two healthy seasons in 2023 and 2024. Braelon Allen is a much bigger part of the backfield now and profiles far more as the short-yardage back than does Hall. Furthermore, running quarterback Justin Fields is now in the backfield, which presents another player to take away Hall's red zone touches. And remember, these have to be carries, not receptions. Hall's best trait is his receiving chops, and if the Jets' backfield does become a timeshare, Hall will see a disproportionate amount of his work through the air. Hall can still score from distance, of course, but with how bad this Jets offense looks, he might have to.
Baker Mayfield to go UNDER 3,750.5 passing yards (-115)
Last season was the best season of Mayfield's career: 4,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and, critically, a 71.4% completion percentage -- his first season ever above 65%. Regression might have come even if his environment remained stable -- but it didn't. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen is gone and replaced by Josh Grizzard, a general unknown. Chris Godwin, last year's WR2 and occasional WR1, will start the season on PUP. WR3 Jalen McMillan will likely miss the first half of the year. And star left tackle Tristan Wirfs will also be absent to begin the season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were particularly good last year on screens, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt (fourth best) and leading the league in third-down conversion rate. If both of these regress, Mayfield will get fewer easy passing yards and see shorter drives, both of which hurt his ability to get to this number. There's also the durability issue: Mayfield takes a lot of hits, and although he has proved durable over the course of his career, he just turned 30. A few missed games would make the difference.
Tennessee Titans to MAKE the playoffs (+425)
The Titans got the first overall pick at quarterback and hardly any odds bump for it. I think that's a mistake. We've seen rookie quarterbacks carry their teams to the playoffs in consecutive seasons, as Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud did. But the quarterback doesn't always have to carry the team. In 2022, San Francisco 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy simply brought a level of competency to the offense that allowed the rest of that superteam to work for him. Ward will likely land more in the first group than in the second group, but the sudden leap in play quality at the quarterback position can enable a team to break through multiple tiers in a hurry.
With that said, the team in Tennessee is better than you might think. The additions of Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler to the offensive line should improve that unit considerably, as should the return to health of center Lloyd Cushenberry III. That line might be a top-10 unit. So too could be the Titans' defense, which was 12th in success rate last season and suffered in the box score only because of the turnover-prone offense it had to endure. A run-and-defend team philosophy with a young quarterback capable of making spectacular plays is the sort of recipe that can surprise a weak AFC South.