Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 254 245 -9 13 104 1127 6 2. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 240 275 35 14 89 1039 8 3. Davante Adams , LAR 237 223 -14 14 61 950 13 4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 228 306 77 14 82 1093 6 5. Chris Olave , NO 224 205 -18 14 82 1038 6 6. Puka Nacua , LAR 218 287 69 13 87 1001 4 7. George Pickens , DAL 217 252 36 14 72 979 8 8. Justin Jefferson , MIN 210 162 -48 14 71 959 7 9. Emeka Egbuka , TB 205 184 -21 14 68 1003 6 10. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 200 190 -10 14 82 917 4 11. Nico Collins , HOU 192 208 15 13 58 900 7 12. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 183 180 -3 14 59 870 6 13. Michael Wilson , ARI 179 167 -12 14 60 860 5 14. Troy Franklin , DEN 179 161 -18 14 55 825 6 15. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 179 179 0 11 58 848 6 16. Courtland Sutton , DEN 177 190 12 14 58 845 6 17. A.J. Brown , PHI 173 190 17 13 58 867 5 18. Zay Flowers , BAL 172 179 7 14 71 798 3 19. Rome Odunze , CHI 172 146 -26 12 56 811 6 20. Ladd McConkey , LAC 166 163 -4 14 61 781 5 21. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 164 189 25 14 68 735 4 22. DK Metcalf , PIT 164 179 15 14 56 700 6 23. Keenan Allen , LAC 164 160 -4 14 64 713 5 24. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 24. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 46 40 -6 6 14 209 1 25. DeVonta Smith , PHI 159 173 14 14 59 785 4 26. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 159 181 22 14 56 760 4 27. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 159 166 8 13 62 600 4 28. Drake London , ATL 158 177 19 9 56 721 5 29. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 75 82 7 6 25 302 2 29. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 30. Jameson Williams , DET 147 189 41 14 50 755 3 31. Rashee Rice , KC 146 150 4 8 57 508 5 32. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 145 102 -43 14 49 735 4 33. Romeo Doubs , GB 144 137 -7 14 43 671 6 34. DJ Moore , CHI 142 144 3 14 46 584 4 35. Stefon Diggs , NE 141 158 17 14 57 634 3 36. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 140 119 -21 11 45 688 4 37. Tee Higgins , CIN 139 169 30 12 41 693 5 38. Jordan Addison , MIN 138 116 -22 11 44 628 5 39. Jauan Jennings , SF 138 136 -2 12 43 599 6 40. Tre Tucker , LV 135 137 2 14 50 597 3 41. Khalil Shakir , BUF 131 150 18 14 62 554 2 42. Quentin Johnston , LAC 127 136 9 12 41 571 5 43. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 126 125 -1 10 39 576 5 44. Alec Pierce , IND 122 130 7 12 33 692 3 45. Xavier Worthy , KC 122 104 -19 12 45 562 3 46. Parker Washington , JAC 121 120 -2 13 37 583 3 47. Chimere Dike , TEN 118 97 -21 14 42 436 3 48. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 113 86 -27 13 41 568 3 49. Josh Downs , IND 110 110 -1 13 48 470 3 50. Hollywood Brown , KC 110 121 12 13 41 483 3 51. Darnell Mooney , ATL 109 67 -42 12 35 568 3 52. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 52. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 77 53 -24 5 22 361 3 53. Malik Washington , MIA 103 93 -10 14 42 358 2 54. Xavier Legette , CAR 102 81 -21 12 34 453 4 55. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 100 80 -21 14 44 414 2 56. Jayden Higgins , HOU 100 100 0 14 34 457 3 57. Mack Hollins , NE 96 100 3 14 33 475 3 58. Jalen Nailor , MIN 95 93 -2 14 25 391 5 59. Cooper Kupp , SEA 93 103 9 13 38 430 2 60. Keon Coleman , BUF 92 94 1 12 32 434 3 61. Sterling Shepard , TB 90 82 -8 13 35 389 2 62. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 88 100 11 7 37 435 1 63. Tyquan Thornton , KC 86 81 -6 14 17 485 3 64. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 86 76 -10 14 29 403 2 65. Terry McLaurin , WAS 85 85 0 7 25 417 3 66. Darius Slayton , NYG 85 82 -3 11 29 446 2 67. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 84 92 8 14 29 359 3 68. Isaiah Bond , CLE 82 47 -34 13 23 409 3 69. Luther Burden III , CHI 81 93 12 13 38 353 1 70. Tez Johnson , TB 81 84 4 13 27 340 2 71. Christian Watson , GB 80 106 26 8 22 430 2 72. Ricky Pearsall , SF 80 75 -5 8 25 409 2 73. Calvin Austin III , PIT 79 70 -10 12 31 379 2 74. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 79 78 -1 14 28 329 3 75. Kayshon Boutte , NE 79 117 38 12 21 372 3 76. Van Jefferson , TEN 77 58 -19 14 28 401 2 77. Dyami Brown , JAC 77 48 -29 12 21 328 3 78. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 76 80 4 12 28 315 1 79. Kendrick Bourne , SF 75 83 8 13 32 375 1 80. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 81. DeMario Douglas , NE 72 87 15 14 25 288 2 82. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 72 71 -1 12 25 361 2 83. Matthew Golden , GB 69 66 -4 11 24 326 1 84. Mike Evans , TB 69 53 -16 5 20 378 2 85. Christian Kirk , HOU 68 48 -19 10 25 289 2 86. Devaughn Vele , NO 67 66 -1 13 22 317 2 87. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 88. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 66 63 -2 14 28 263 2 89. Tyler Lockett , LV 36 38 2 7 16 168 1 89. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 90. Greg Dortch , ARI 64 75 12 12 26 210 1 91. Rashod Bateman , BAL 63 54 -9 11 21 296 2 92. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 62 64 2 12 23 216 1 93. Jaylin Lane , WAS 61 49 -12 14 19 303 2 94. Pat Bryant , DEN 60 59 -2 13 23 295 1 95. Chris Godwin , TB 59 49 -9 6 22 264 2 96. Cedric Tillman , CLE 58 50 -9 10 20 287 2 97. John Metchie III , NYJ 52 53 0 6 24 204 1 97. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 98. Calvin Ridley , TEN 57 47 -10 7 21 314 1 99. Jaylin Noel , HOU 56 52 -5 14 21 222 2 100. David Sills V , ATL 53 40 -12 14 18 248 2 101. Tory Horton , SEA 51 65 14 8 13 211 3 102. Joshua Palmer , BUF 50 48 -2 9 18 269 1 103. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 49 59 10 14 14 264 1 104. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 105. Tre Harris , LAC 48 53 5 14 20 228 1 106. Brandin Cooks , BUF 7 2 -5 3 1 49 0 106. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 10 17 194 1 107. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 108. Demarcus Robinson , SF 46 38 -8 11 15 241 1 109. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 45 32 -13 14 10 204 2 110. Jalen Coker , CAR 44 62 18 8 18 229 1 111. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 44 39 -4 11 13 200 2 112. Tim Patrick , JAC 43 48 5 13 12 169 2 113. Chris Moore , WAS 40 36 -4 11 11 192 2 114. Jordan Whittington , LAR 39 33 -6 14 18 156 0 115. Jahan Dotson , PHI 38 39 1 14 13 209 1 116. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 37 44 7 14 7 135 3 117. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 37 20 -17 12 10 239 0 118. Jack Bech , LV 37 36 -1 14 16 168 1 119. Roman Wilson , PIT 36 39 3 12 14 174 1 120. Allen Lazard , NYJ 36 23 -13 10 9 136 2 121. Kalif Raymond , DET 34 41 7 12 16 152 0 122. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 123. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 14 19 5 4 5 57 0 123. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 124. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 32 37 5 12 16 135 0 125. Zay Jones , ARI 31 30 -1 8 10 164 1 126. Adam Thielen , MIN 28 17 -11 11 12 136 0 126. Adam Thielen , PIT 3 3 0 2 2 12 0 127. Elijah Moore , BUF 31 29 -2 9 10 134 0 128. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 129. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 29 37 8 14 12 154 0 130. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 29 9 -20 8 8 159 1 131. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 29 20 -9 14 14 132 0 132. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 28 35 7 10 10 142 1 133. Isaiah Hodgins , NYG 26 26 -1 4 8 120 1 134. Jayden Reed , GB 26 33 7 4 11 111 0 135. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 135. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 2 2 -1 2 1 16 0 136. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 25 21 -4 10 8 86 0 137. Xavier Smith , LAR 25 28 4 13 10 121 0 138. Kyle Williams , NE 24 31 7 14 7 135 1 139. Savion Williams , GB 24 25 1 11 8 60 0 140. Gage Larvadain , CLE 23 12 -11 10 9 109 0 141. Arian Smith , NYJ 23 12 -11 13 7 110 0 142. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 7 7 139 0 143. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 22 25 3 13 10 114 0 144. Mason Tipton , NO 21 12 -9 13 8 88 0 145. Jamari Thrash , CLE 20 21 0 9 10 102 0 146. Gabe Davis , BUF 20 16 -4 4 6 78 1 147. Dylan Drummond , ATL 20 11 -8 6 7 81 1 148. Tutu Atwell , LAR 19 28 9 7 6 107 0 149. Malachi Corley , CLE 18 18 0 10 6 36 0 150. Treylon Burks , WAS 18 19 1 5 5 93 1 151. Curtis Samuel , BUF 17 21 4 6 6 81 0 152. Ashton Dulin , IND 17 20 3 10 5 71 0 153. Tylan Wallace , BAL 17 15 -2 13 4 65 1 154. Noah Brown , WAS 17 13 -4 4 5 86 1 155. Xavier Weaver , ARI 17 5 -11 7 4 83 1 156. Devontez Walker , BAL 16 25 9 9 3 73 1 157. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 16 15 -1 14 6 76 1 158. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , PIT 5 9 4 2 1 16 0 158. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 159. Austin Trammell , JAC 16 8 -8 6 5 86 0 160. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 16 6 -10 12 5 85 0 161. Robbie Chosen , WAS 14 10 -4 3 5 75 0 162. Kameron Johnson , TB 14 18 4 14 5 64 0 163. Beaux Collins , NYG 13 5 -8 9 3 53 1 164. Xavier Restrepo , TEN 13 7 -6 2 3 54 1 165. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 12 8 -4 12 4 67 0 166. Skyy Moore , SF 12 11 -1 14 4 62 0 167. Ben Skowronek , PIT 11 17 6 14 4 44 0 168. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 11 10 -1 7 3 50 0 169. Braxton Berrios , HOU 11 10 -1 4 5 51 0 170. Devin Duvernay , CHI 11 5 -6 14 2 37 1 171. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 11 13 2 13 1 27 1 172. Malik Heath , GB 11 15 4 11 5 52 0 173. Jalen Brooks , ARI 10 6 -3 2 4 47 0
