Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Tight end adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for tight ends:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Tight Ends (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Trey McBride , ARI 272 279 7 15 100 1077 11 2. Jake Ferguson , DAL 180 179 -1 15 69 668 7 3. Tyler Warren , IND 176 172 -4 15 65 677 6 4. Kyle Pitts , ATL 170 195 25 15 74 776 3 5. Dalton Schultz , HOU 170 162 -9 15 72 697 5 6. Harold Fannin Jr. , CLE 170 175 5 15 72 742 3 7. Brock Bowers , LV 161 176 15 12 58 629 6 8. Travis Kelce , KC 157 180 24 15 66 688 3 9. Juwan Johnson , NO 149 159 11 15 67 667 3 10. Hunter Henry , NE 148 154 7 15 50 600 6 11. Dallas Goedert , PHI 133 175 42 14 53 558 4 12. Mark Andrews , BAL 131 121 -10 15 42 458 6 13. Theo Johnson , NYG 127 128 1 15 45 570 4 14. Zach Ertz , WAS 123 126 3 13 48 572 3 15. AJ Barner , SEA 115 131 16 15 46 406 4 16. George Kittle , SF 114 154 40 10 42 449 4 17. T.J. Hockenson , MIN 111 113 2 15 50 443 3 18. Oronde Gadsden II , LAC 110 115 5 13 41 482 4 19. Chigoziem Okonkwo , TEN 105 107 3 15 50 468 1 20. Cade Otton , TB 103 93 -11 14 50 457 1 21. Colston Loveland , CHI 103 119 16 14 39 443 3 22. Mason Taylor , NYJ 102 89 -13 13 45 471 2 23. Evan Engram , DEN 101 89 -12 14 50 414 2 24. Gunnar Helm , TEN 89 91 1 15 37 364 3 25. Dalton Kincaid , BUF 89 118 30 11 32 382 3 26. Brenton Strange , JAC 83 92 10 10 36 358 2 27. Jonnu Smith , PIT 82 76 -6 15 36 328 2 28. Colby Parkinson , LAR 79 99 19 13 30 265 4 29. Dawson Knox , BUF 79 85 6 15 29 306 3 30. Cole Kmet , CHI 76 70 -7 14 28 348 2 31. Sam LaPorta , DET 74 107 33 9 33 341 1 32. David Njoku , CLE 74 86 13 12 29 317 2 33. Mike Gesicki , CIN 73 61 -12 11 22 304 3 34. Tucker Kraft , GB 72 117 45 8 31 296 2 35. Pat Freiermuth , PIT 71 96 25 15 31 300 2 36. Darnell Washington , PIT 70 70 0 15 30 275 2 37. Jake Tonges , SF 68 74 7 15 27 248 3 38. Darren Waller , MIA 66 88 21 8 19 266 3 39. Taysom Hill , NO 66 36 -30 11 10 81 0 40. Ja'Tavion Sanders , CAR 62 54 -8 12 27 233 2 41. Noah Fant , CIN 62 75 13 13 29 241 2 42. Isaiah Likely , BAL 56 51 -6 12 23 231 2 43. Davis Allen , LAR 56 63 7 15 25 199 2 44. Michael Mayer , LV 56 48 -7 11 25 230 1 45. Tommy Tremble , CAR 51 50 -1 15 24 199 1 46. Tyler Higbee , LAR 50 51 1 9 21 198 2 47. Terrance Ferguson , LAR 50 39 -11 13 10 223 3 48. Noah Gray , KC 48 32 -17 14 21 220 1 49. Luke Musgrave , GB 48 49 1 15 23 237 0 50. Elijah Higgins , ARI 46 52 6 15 24 197 1 51. Daniel Bellinger , NYG 42 45 3 14 15 173 2 52. Elijah Arroyo , SEA 42 37 -5 13 15 195 1 53. Tanner Hudson , CIN 41 43 1 13 15 143 2 54. Austin Hooper , NE 40 49 9 14 15 184 1 55. Jeremy Ruckert , NYJ 39 46 7 15 20 157 1 56. Mitchell Evans , CAR 38 45 7 15 16 135 1 57. Jackson Hawes , BUF 36 52 16 15 13 138 1 58. Greg Dulcich , MIA 36 41 5 8 17 154 1 59. Adam Trautman , DEN 35 41 6 15 17 143 1 60. Brock Wright , DET 34 37 2 11 18 124 1 61. Hunter Long , JAC 31 33 1 9 13 103 1 62. Josh Oliver , MIN 30 48 18 13 13 99 1 63. Luke Schoonmaker , DAL 30 22 -8 15 11 148 1 64. Julian Hill , MIA 27 27 0 12 14 102 0 65. John FitzPatrick , GB 26 25 -1 15 12 83 1 66. Charlie Kolar , BAL 25 36 11 15 10 108 1 67. Drew Sample , CIN 25 25 1 15 12 92 0 68. Tanner Conner , MIA 24 18 -6 9 9 114 1 69. Johnny Mundt , JAC 24 18 -7 14 13 108 0 70. Luke Farrell , SF 24 30 6 15 11 84 1 71. Ian Thomas , LV 23 24 1 13 11 92 0 72. Nate Adkins , DEN 23 17 -6 8 9 73 1 73. Cade Stover , HOU 22 18 -4 7 11 75 0 74. Mo Alie-Cox , IND 22 15 -7 15 9 89 1 75. John Bates , WAS 21 18 -3 13 11 90 0 76. Jack Stoll , NO 17 17 -1 14 8 67 0 77. Quintin Morris , JAC 17 10 -7 12 6 72 1 78. Connor Heyward , PIT 16 17 1 15 2 23 1 79. Brevyn Spann-Ford , DAL 16 15 -1 15 6 56 1 80. Tyler Conklin , LAC 15 16 1 12 7 71 0 81. Foster Moreau , NO 15 13 -2 11 8 57 0 82. Grant Calcaterra , PHI 14 11 -3 13 7 69 0 83. Charlie Woerner , ATL 14 13 -1 15 7 52 0 84. Will Dissly , LAC 13 15 2 7 7 58 0 85. Ben Sinnott , WAS 12 20 8 14 5 53 0 86. Andrew Ogletree , IND 11 13 1 15 4 42 1 87. Ross Dwelley , DET 11 3 -8 11 2 25 1 88. Anthony Firkser , DET 11 11 1 5 5 44 0 89. Albert Okwuegbunam , LV 10 9 -2 1 4 38 0 90. Shane Zylstra , DET 10 5 -5 4 3 36 0 91. Josh Whyle , GB 9 11 2 6 3 31 1 92. Stone Smartt , NYJ 8 8 0 13 4 39 0 93. Harrison Bryant , HOU 8 3 -5 10 3 37 0 94. Durham Smythe , CHI 7 4 -3 15 4 36 0 95. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , BAL 5 1 -4 6 1 11 0 95. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , NO 2 2 1 2 1 8 0 96. Tip Reiman , ARI 7 5 -2 4 3 33 0 97. Kylen Granson , PHI 6 4 -2 15 3 31 0 98. Blake Whiteheart , CLE 6 2 -4 15 3 33 0 99. Lucas Krull , DEN 6 4 -2 3 3 27 0 100. Pharaoh Brown , ARI 6 2 -3 6 2 9 0 101. Tucker Fisk , LAC 5 4 -2 10 3 26 0 102. Brenden Bates , CLE 2 0 -2 4 1 5 0 102. Brenden Bates , HOU 3 4 1 3 1 17 0 103. David Martin-Robinson , TEN 5 9 3 15 1 10 0 104. James Mitchell , CAR 5 6 1 4 3 19 0 105. Colson Yankoff , WAS 4 4 -1 12 2 22 0 106. Payne Durham , TB 4 2 -2 15 3 17 0 107. Devin Culp , TB 4 8 3 11 1 7 0 108. Eric Saubert , SEA 4 6 2 9 2 13 0 109. Nick Kallerup , SEA 4 0 -4 8 0 7 0
