Breakout forward rankings for 2025: From value picks to rising stars

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Every fantasy manager dreams of finding the player who jumps from late-round flyer to league-winner. The trick is knowing when the leap is coming by spotting the precise age and experience window when potential turns into production.

Last season, we took age-related curves for fantasy production and upgraded our system to identify potential breakout candidates by adding more targeted criteria.

• Each forward was under 23 years and 331 days old.

• They averaged less than 1.70 fantasy PPG in their career to that point.

• They had at least 100 NHL games of experience, but fewer than 180.

• They had not sustained a 30-game stretch averaging 1.70 fantasy PPG (FPPG) or better.

Jump ahead: Breakout picks

Logical and sound, no complaints there, but the more I reflected on it, the more I realized it wasn't exactly finding what we wanted.

If we define a true breakout player, it's someone who transforms from a minimal acquisition cost into a difference-maker, and with our previous threshold of 1.70 FPPG, that doesn't really describe a difference-maker. In fact, that's about replacement level.

This time, we are moving the goalposts in a way that the criteria to establish a breakout benchmark specifically target top fantasy players. Now, we want players who haven't yet finished among the top 100 fantasy forwards in any season, and fall within the typical age and experience range when most forwards historically break out.

Some hard numbers so you know what we ended up looking for:

• Sample size: Since 2009-10, 281 forwards appeared at least twice among the top 100 in fantasy scoring. (One-time flukes excluded.)

• Breakout threshold: The group's median FPPG was 1.89. We used that as the bar -- a player had to sustain it for at least half a season to qualify.

• How many made it: 115 forwards hit that bar at some point in their career.

• Average breakout point: Age 24 years, 92 days and 254 games played.

• Age window: Most broke out between about 21.96 years and 26.32 years old.

• Experience window: Most broke out between 143 and 402 career games.

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The breakouts

Here are the most intriguing players who meet all of our requirements -- anyone penciled in for or with a reasonable path to top-six minutes -- presented in order of how close their career games played are to the average breakout age.

Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (23.1 years old, 1.50 FPPG in 260 games): Consider me surprised that Byfield didn't finish among the top 100 forwards last season. It wouldn't be too much of a shock -- even a welcome surprise to the Kings -- if he outpaces Anze Kopitar in fantasy points.

Kirby Dach, C, Montreal Canadiens (24.6 years old, 1.26 FPPG in 269 games): With both his age and experience right in the wheelhouse of the historical breakouts, the fact Dach is on the up-and-coming Canadiens only adds to the allure.

Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals (24.6 years old, 1.56 FPPG in 237 games): After really stepping up in the first half of the season, McMichael slowed down enough to not finish among the top 100 forwards. It's unlikely he'll run out of gas the same way again.

Mason McTavish, C, Anaheim Ducks (22.6 years old, 1.59 FPPG in 229 games): While Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier didn't make this list because of the experience filter, it's worth mentioning that they, along with McTavish, represent a youth movement that will take over the Ducks offense completely, as early as this season.

Matias Maccelli, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (24.9 years old, 0.76 FPPG in 224 games): Maccelli has etched himself into my brain with some highlight-reel passes, even if his overall results are unimpressive. If he plays with Auston Matthews and establishes a rapport, it could be great for fantasy managers taking a chance on him late.

Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (23.7 years old, 1.45 FPPG in 222 games): Even if Jonathan Toews isn't the answer to the Jets' second-line issues, Perfetti is still due an increase in power-play usage with the first unit.

Vasily Podkolzin, RW, Edmonton Oilers (24.2 years old, 1.11 FPPG in 219 games): Anyone with a chance to play regular shifts in this top six is worth some lengthy consideration for your fantasy roster. While the excitement may be swirling around Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie, it's Podkolzin who has experience.

Barrett Hayton, C, Utah Mammoth (25.2 years old, 1.39 FPPG in 291 games): Hayton is still secure in a top-six role and the Mammoth even picked up another quality winger for him with the trade for JJ Peterka.

Nils Hoglander, LW, Vancouver Canucks (24.7 years old, 0.83 FPPG in 293 games): Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, Evander Kane and Conor Garland are the Canucks' top wingers on paper. There could be some flexibility there, though, given the results last season.

Anton Lundell, LW, Florida Panthers (23.9 years old, 1.52 FPPG in 295 games): With Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen, Lundell's third line was the Panthers' best line at times during the postseason. Given their exceptional results and the extended absence for Matthew Tkachuk, the "third" line might get enough minutes to be fantasy relevant.

Philip Tomasino, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (24.1 years old, 1.10 FPPG in 209 games): With the only reliable wingers on the Penguins, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, both being discussed as potential in-season trade candidates, there is room for Tomasino to find a comfortable spot.

Simon Holmstrom, RW, New York Islanders (24.3 years old, 1.46 FPPG in 200 games): These breakout calculators keep flagging Holmstrom, even though we've yet to see much evidence. While he isn't locked in on a projected scoring line, the path to get there isn't overly daunting.

Kent Johnson, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (22.9 years old, 1.72 FPPG in 198 games): You could argue he already broke out and his inclusion here is a technicality because the 14 games he missed prevented him from finishing among the top 100 forwards last season.

William Eklund, LW, San Jose Sharks (22.9 years old, 1.66 FPPG in 174 games): What's not to love about the upside of Eklund after seeing the interplay between him and Macklin Celebrini last season?

Luke Evangelista, RW, Nashville Predators (23.5 years old, 0.99 FPPG in 172 games): The Predators need Evangelista to take a big step forward, or else their scoring lines look very thin.

Tyson Foerster, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (23.6 years old, 1.49 FPPG in 166 games): Does anyone feel like a 100% lock for the Flyers' top six aside from Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett? Not really? That leaves as many as six players competing for the other spots. Foerster, Trevor Zegras and Bobby Brink have the most fantasy upside of the remaining forwards.

Alex Laferriere, RW, Los Angeles Kings (23.9 years old, 1.51 FPPG in 158 games): The experience of playing on a scoring line all season should help vault Laferriere for the coming season.

Dmitri Voronkov, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets (25.0 years old, 1.64 FPPG in 148 games): He caught us off-guard with a midseason run of success last season, but we are ready for Voronkov to belong on fantasy rosters this season.

Kaapo Kakko, RW, Seattle Kraken (24.6 years old, 1.20 FPPG in 379 games): Kakko enjoyed a massive increase in minutes last season following the trade, and has high expectations ahead of his first full season with the Kraken.

Alexis Lafreniere, LW, New York Rangers (23.9 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 380 games): It's now or never. Either Lafreniere has another level to his game for fantasy managers or he doesn't. He comes in with a secure top-line role and plenty of experience.

Together, this group represents the players most likely to graduate from "potential" to "proven" in fantasy -- and the ones you'll want to be early on before the rest of your league catches up.

Want to test out different approaches? Try out the ESPN Mock Draft Lobby.

Technically already broken out

Because these players have had one season among the top-100 forwards in fantasy points, they have arguably already broken out. But they are still worth keeping an eye on, as they trend toward the middle of our criteria windows and still have a pedestrian career FPPG.

Trevor Zegras, C, Philadelphia Flyers (24.5 years old, 1.30 FPPG in 268 games): This change of scenery comes with Zegras on the cusp of his prime years. Injuries played a big part in his fade from early-career glory with the Ducks, so a healthy season at the top of a depth chart may just skyrocket him back into the spotlight. But there is a nonzero chance that the Zegras we've had the past couple seasons is all we are going to get, so there is risk.