Brandon Bussi now has a nine-game run of victories that started on Oct. 30 against the New York Islanders. His streak includes a total of 39.4 fantasy points across those nine games, representing 4.28 fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60). For reference, only Jesper Wallstedt (5.92) and Mackenzie Blackwood (4.76) have posted a better FPP60 this season.
Even considering the season as a whole, Bussi's 3.91 FPP60 still ranks fifth overall.
But when you see the opponents listed across his nine-game win streak, you can't help but wonder a little about them. Among the nine are the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames, who are all fighting near the bottom of the NHL standings.
But a quick look at opposing fantasy points for goaltenders by team shows that standings do not equal feasting time for goaltenders. Sure, the Flames, Blue Jackets and Predators are among the best opponents for goaltenders to pile up points, but the rest of Bussi's opponents in the streak are in the tougher half of the league as fantasy points go.
But it got me wondering about which goaltenders have faced the easiest overall schedule when it comes to fantasy points.
A couple of qualifying statements before we show the stats, though. There is some self-perpetuation baked into these calculations: to measure how fantasy-friendly a team is for goalies, we use the fantasy results of the goalies who faced them, then apply that back to evaluate goalie schedules. It's a kind of fantasy points-against turducken: logically sound but layered in on itself.
In other words, a goaltender's rating here feeds back into itself more than we usually like with these kinds of calculations.
Schedule strength and the fantasy points to compare to it are averaged per start to reflect the matchups a goaltender was assigned, not brief relief appearances that can skew appearance-based averages.
This table is restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of five starts.
The results versus opponent strength shows how well a goaltender has performed above the expectations set by the strength of their opponents this season. It's no shock to see Wallstedt leading the way on the back of all his shutouts, Colorado's goaltenders are both up high on the list, and backups Jonathan Quick and Casey DeSmith really are locked in behind their respective starters.
And yes, there is Bussi, ranked fourth in success versus expectations. But it's very interesting to note the strength of schedule of opponents. Of the 69 goaltenders with five starts, Bussi ranks 25th in easiest assignments, two behind teammate Pyotr Kochetkov. That's not a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not the most difficult schedule either. The solid fantasy output by both Bussi and Kochetkov this season isn't all due to their assigned opponents, as the Hurricanes are just a dominant possession club and play great defense. But remember that they aren't the only two goaltenders for Carolina ...
Way down the list, with the 58th easiest (or 12th most difficult) schedule this season, is Frederik Andersen. The veteran Hurricanes goalie has struggled this year, but based on the opponents he's faced, his schedule has been tougher than most.
His results against expectations are still solidly negative, but as Bussi soars and Kochetkov remains steady in the three-goalie rotation, the difficulty of Andersen's assignments should be considered before letting him go to the waiver wire. There's still plenty of season left, and the Hurricanes crease remains one of the best spots for fantasy success.
Brandon Bussi makes big-time save vs. Capitals
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Goalie notes
Here's this week's selection of goaltending snapshots, showing crease shares, fantasy production, and key notes where relevant.
Anaheim Ducks in 33 games (four last week):
Lukas Dostal (crease share season/week: 57.5%/49.6%, fantasy points season/week: 44.6/4.8, 34.0% available, 2.34 FPP60)
Ville Husso (crease share season/week: 21.0%/50.4%, fantasy points season/week: 10.8/3.2, 98.2% available, 1.55 FPP60)
Petr Mrazek (crease share season/week: 20.5%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -3.0/DNP, 99.0% available, -0.44 FPP60)
Vyacheslav Buteyets (crease share season/week: 1.0%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -4.0/DNP, 100.0% available, -12.0 FPP60)
Dostal's back and he gave us a solid reminder as to why he's a fantasy must-have with 7.4 fantasy points against the Rangers on Monday. His availability grew a little during his injury absence (he was only available in 22% of leagues in late November).
Detroit Red Wings in 33 games (four last week):
John Gibson (crease share season/week: 52.0%/75.5%, fantasy points season/week: 22.8/31.8, 81.5% available, 1.32 FPP60)
Cam Talbot (crease share season/week: 48.0%/24.5%, fantasy points season/week: 14.8/-1.0, 85.6% available, 0.93 FPP60)
This was a big week for Gibson, with a couple of shutouts rocketing him up the goaltender ranks. The opponents were on the softer side, but it's still arguably enough to get him onto rosters and maybe even into lineups going forward. This is what the Red Wings acquired him to do this season.
Edmonton Oilers in 33 games (four last week):
Tristan Jarry (stats since acquired by Oilers) (crease share season/week: 51.9%/51.9%, fantasy points season/week: 3.0/3.0, 44.7% available, 3.0 FPP60)
Calvin Pickard (crease share season/week: 30.6%/23.7%, fantasy points season/week: -21.2/-3.4, 98.7% available, -2.1 FPP60)
Jarry had a solid first outing as the new goaltender for the Oilers and he should get a massive share of the crease with how unreliable Pickard has been. Note in the table at the start of this column that Jarry has had the fourth most difficult schedule to date this season and he ranks fifth in results versus expectations. He might just be the fantasy answer we've wanted for the Oilers crease.
Los Angeles Kings in 32 games (five last week):
Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 69.3%/57.0%, fantasy points season/week: 61.8/9.0, 9.5% available, 2.76 FPP60)
Anton Forsberg (crease share season/week: 30.7%/43.0%, fantasy points season/week: 12.6/-1.6, 99.0% available, 1.27 FPP60)
Kuemper was knocked out of Monday's game. Keep an eye on his status, as Forsberg could be a short-term option for your roster if Kuemper misses time. It's not a great schedule this week though, so don't rush out to start Forsberg against the Florida teams.
Anton Forsberg makes big-time save vs. Stars
Montreal Canadiens in 32 games (five last week):
Jakub Dobes (crease share season/week: 52.1%/32.8%, fantasy points season/week: 28.0/3.6, 69.8% available, 1.66 FPP60)
Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 41.5%/16.5%, fantasy points season/week: -18.2/-4.0, 57.8% available, -1.36 FPP60)
Jacob Fowler (crease share season/week: 6.3%/50.7%, fantasy points season/week: 2.8/2.8, 93.4% available, 1.37 FPP60)
The Canadiens have some decisions to make after rookie Fowler showed well enough in his debut against the Penguins, then not so well in a followup against the Rangers. This crease is too crowded with three, but we'll see what the Habs do with Fowler this week. In keeper leagues, he is worth having on rosters already, just in case the future turns out to be now.
New Jersey Devils in 33 games (five last week):
Jake Allen (crease share season/week: 50.2%/47.2%, fantasy points season/week: 36.6/2.6, 75.0% available, 2.21 FPP60)
Jacob Markstrom (crease share season/week: 46.8%/52.8%, fantasy points season/week: -0.4/-1.6, 55.2% available, -0.03 FPP60)
Nico Daws (crease share season/week: 3.0%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 7.8/DNP, 99.5% available, 7.8 FPP60)
Allen and Markstrom have both faced some of the toughest matchups for fantasy points so far this season. Allen has outperformed expectations, while Markstrom has struggled, but the difficulty of their opponents suggests better days may still be ahead for this crease.
Nashville Predators in 32 games (four last week):
Juuse Saros (crease share season/week: 75.0%/75.7%, fantasy points season/week: 32.4/14.6, 33.1% available, 1.34 FPP60)
Justus Annunen (crease share season/week: 25.0%/24.3%, fantasy points season/week: -18.4/1.4, 99.8% available, -2.29 FPP60)
It's funny to see the anecdotal suggestion confirmed mathematically that the Predators throw Annunen to the wolves to protect Saros. Based on the strength of schedule calculations, Annunen has played the toughest fantasy slate of any goaltender this season, with his seven starts coming against a who's who of dangerous opponents. That decision, however, shields Saros a little. If we consider just high-volume goaltenders (20-plus starts), only Dustin Wolf has had a friendlier fantasy schedule.
Winnipeg Jets in 32 games (four last week):
Connor Hellebuyck (crease share season/week: 50.1%/51.2%, fantasy points season/week: 43.4/7.4, 0.4% available, 2.72 FPP60)
Eric Comrie (crease share season/week: 42.7%/48.8%, fantasy points season/week: 4.6/-11.4, 97.0% available, 0.34 FPP60)
Thomas Milic (crease share season/week: 7.2%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -5.2/DNP, 100.0% available, -2.25 FPP60)
He's back, and not a moment too soon. Hellebuyck came off the IR late last week, so make sure he's back in your lineup.
Power-play notes
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Minnesota Wild (available in 96.7%): Although the unit didn't get a single shot attempt in 2:13 in Hughes debut, don't doubt for a second that this is now one of the scariest power plays in the NHL now that the Wild have their anchor on the point. Tarasenko got first crack at the unit and could be a fantasy power-play specialist if he sticks. We'll give the unit a mulligan for this first game.
Dylan Cozens, C/RW, Ottawa Senators (available in 25.1%): With three power-play tallies across their past three games, the Sens' top unit might be finding their groove again now that Brady Tkachuk has settled back into the lineup. Cozens is the most available option on the top unit and is deserving of being a lineup lock with his 2.0 fantasy points per game (FPPG) this season.
Rickard Rakell, LW/RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (available in 28.2%): Returning from injury on Saturday, Rakell was back on the top power-play unit as it scored three times against the Sharks. He didn't get a point, but simply being there is more than half the battle going forward.
Darren Raddysh, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (available in 44.0%): With news Victor Hedman has gone from day-to-day to out until February, we can stop flirting with Raddysh in and out of lineups and simply lock him into place for the foreseeable future.
Zeev Buium, D, Vancouver Canucks (available in 63.6%): The Wild had other options and plenty to lose. The Canucks, however, don't really have any options and have nothing to lose. Buium should monopolize the Canucks power-play time for the rest of the season (maybe decade). There will be some struggles at 5-on-5, and I would worry if plus/minus was a category in my league, but Buium should be back on rosters again with this trade.
Darren Raddysh nets power-play goal
Droppables
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (rostered in 95.4%): It was always going to be tough for Montreal to field three strong fantasy options on the blue line. While Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson have stayed hot, Matheson has slowed in recent weeks. In his past 11 games, he's posted two assists and 15.4 fantasy points (1.4 FPPG), compared to four goals, 10 assists, and 45.2 fantasy points (2.15 FPPG) in the previous 21 games. Eleven games isn't necessarily enough to cut bait, but with his power-play access gone, his upside is limited.