2025-26 predictions: Premier League, Champions League, Golden Boot

play
Can Arsenal end their 22-year wait for a title? (1:57)

Rob Dawson and James Olley discuss Arsenal's chances of ending their 22-year wait for a Premier League title. (1:57)

The 2025-26 European soccer season is here! After a busy summer of drama and excitement, including Chelsea knocking off Paris Saint-Germain in the FIFA Club World Cup final, we are back with a new club season across the continent.

In the Premier League, the action kicks off with Liverpool vs. Bournemouth on Friday. LaLiga and Ligue 1 also begin play this weekend, with the Bundesliga and Serie A beginning the following week.

That means it's time for nine of ESPN's writers to predict everything from silverware to transfer window regrets. We also asked each of them to provide one big, bold prediction that we'll be sure to revisit at the end of the season.

Who is primed to surprise or disappoint this season? Does anyone think Wrexham can keep their fairy tale alive and earn promotion for the third straight year? And whose hot takes will look brilliant come season's end? Let's see what our writers had to say, starting with their Premier League picks.

Jump to a section:
Premier League predictions | Europe predictions | One bold prediction

Premier League predictions

One thing's for certain: Liverpool are the clear favorites to retain their crown. But our writers' picks for top four and relegation feature a few surprises.

Who will win Golden Boot?

Bill Connelly: Erling Haaland. We'll see if City has the defense to rise back to the top of the Premier League, but no one will benefit more from City's recent influx of attacking talent than Haaland, who had 22 league goals in a supposedly bad season.

Rob Dawson: Haaland. He was typically prolific last season despite City's struggles, and they'll be better overall this season.

Tom Hamilton: Alexander Isak, if he goes to Liverpool. If not, then Haaland. Chelsea's new forward João Pedro should also finish high up the charts.

Julien Laurens: Haaland. Last season, City were not themselves, and Haaland was not himself either. This will all change this season with more attacking power from Pep Guardiola's team, and we should get another top campaign from the goal machine.

Beth Lindop: Haaland. Injury prevented the Norway international from claiming another Golden Boot last season, but he still remains arguably the most prolific striker in Europe. I expect him to be right up there again this term.

Gab Marcotti: Haaland. There's no reason to think he'll suddenly get worse after a humdrum 2024-25 that still saw him bag 22 goals. Eighty-five goals in 97 Premier League appearances tell the story. (In the same time frame, Mohamed Salah has 66 in 114 and Isak has 54 in 86.)

Mark Ogden: Haaland. Manchester City might not win the title, but you can never back anyone besides Haaland for the Golden Boot.

James Olley: Salah. His fitness record is excellent, he takes penalties, he won it last year and Liverpool will be in the thick of the title race again.

Sam Tighe: Haaland. He'll be back with a vengeance. Man City might still present as a somewhat flawed team, but his goal-scoring instincts -- and sheer hunger -- should never be doubted.


Which player will have a bounce-back season?

Connelly: Can I say Haaland again? In terms of goals per 90 minutes, 2024-25 was his worst season since he was 17 and playing for Molde in Norway. In terms of assists per 90 minutes, it was his worst season as a pro. He's almost certainly going to get it back.

Dawson: Kobbie Mainoo. He has struggled for games under Ruben Amorim, but with the right midfielder partner next to him, he could be key to Manchester United's resurgence.

Hamilton: Haaland. It seems strange to label the third-highest scorer in the Premier League last term as needing a bounce-back, but Haaland's season was a little erratic. Expect him to be back and firing this time around.

Laurens: Martin Ødegaard. First, he was injured last season, then never really got into top form, and that impacted Arsenal. He has looked sharp in preseason, and he will be back to his best this season.

- Ranked: The top 50 players going into the new Premier League season
- Wrexham want promotion to Premier League. They should worry about relegation from Championship
- Nailing preseason is key to any club's Premier League ambitions

Lindop: Jack Grealish. His move to Everton is a bit of a gamble for both parties, but I think Grealish will relish the opportunity to be the main man at a club after struggling for minutes last season. With the World Cup next summer, the England international will be desperate to get back to his best.

Marcotti: Joško Gvardiol. He wasn't awful last season, but he was sort of mired in City's defensive mediocrity. If Guardiola ditches the four-center-back setup and moves him into the heart of the back line as many expect, the Croatia international is ready to step into the role and be a leader.

Ogden: Mason Mount. If he stays fit, the Manchester United midfielder can finally justify his move -- two years after arriving at Old Trafford.

Olley: Rodri. It has almost become a cliché to underline how important the midfielder is to Manchester City, but this season could prove once again why he is vital.

Tighe: Phil Foden. The only way is up for Foden, who followed up a Player of the Year campaign in 2023-24 with a complete dud in 2024-25. It took him 24 shots to register his first goal of the season, and he ended up making only 20 starts in the league.


Which manager will be sacked first?

Connelly: Scott Parker, Burnley. He has the least or second-least talented roster in the league, and the past three times he has coached a Premier League team, the team has been relegated.

Dawson: Keith Andrews, Brentford. He's walking into a difficult situation for his first job as a head coach.

Hamilton: Daniel Farke, Leeds. There were those suggestions at the end of last season that Leeds were looking to replace him soon after their promotion was confirmed. If they have a slow start, the pressure will be on him.

Laurens: Parker, Burnley. He gets teams promoted to the Premier League and then they struggle. I can't see the pattern changing.

Lindop: Farke, Leeds. The Premier League hasn't been kind to newly promoted sides in recent years, and I have a feeling Farke could be the first one to fall victim to that trend.

Marcotti: Parker, Burnley. His team was promoted after giving up only 13 goals on an xG conceded of more than 33. And Burnley lost their standout goalkeeper (James Trafford) and center back (CJ Egan-Riley). This is Parker's fourth stint as a Premier League manager. In every previous one, he was either sacked or relegated.

Ogden: Graham Potter, West Ham. It could be a close call between him and Everton's David Moyes, but Potter is already on the back foot after his poor start to the job last season.

Olley: Potter, West Ham. There were a few murmurings of discontent among the fan base at the end of last season, and they've lost Mohammed Kudus. He starts under more pressure than most.

Tighe: Parker, Burnley. A scattergun approach to the transfer market hasn't sufficiently lifted a squad that is not only likely to struggle to score goals at this level, but has lost its best defensive player (keeper Trafford) too. Parker will pay the price.


Which team will regret its summer transfer window the most at the end of the season?

Connelly: Manchester United. They finished 15th last season and entered the summer needing new blood at center forward, midfield and wing back at the very least. They've now signed two wingers/attacking midfielders at the peak of their value (Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha), and have finalized a dramatic overspend for a center forward (Benjamin Sesko). Bad priorities and bad spending.

Dawson: Brentford. They've lost a lot of good players, such as Mbeumo and Christian Nørgaard, as well as their manager, Thomas Frank.

Hamilton: Newcastle. Despite bringing in Anthony Elanga, it has been an underwhelming summer for them, missing out on several of their top targets. Other teams around them have strengthened, leaving Newcastle standing still, and they also have the Champions League to juggle.

Laurens: Newcastle. There is the Isak issue and the lack of signings, plus the fact they will be in the Champions League this season. The last time they were, it didn't work out for them in either the Champions League or Premier League.

Lindop: Newcastle. It has so far been a transfer window to forget for the Magpies. Having missed out on several key targets, securing Champions League qualification could be tricky unless Eddie Howe is able to add some more quality depth before the window closes.

Marcotti: Liverpool, and I say this while reserving the right to change my mind since the window is still open. But getting reliable cover at center back for Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate, as well as Ryan Gravenberch in midfield, seemed like priorities to me. Instead, as of now, it seems Wataru Endo is the answer to both questions (or, at center back, Joe Gomez, whose injury record isn't good). I love their other signings, but they need to get cover in those positions (and while they're at it, extend Konate's contract too).

Ogden: Newcastle. They've had a shocker throughout the summer and missed out on so many top targets.

Olley: Newcastle. It hasn't entirely been their own fault, but at time of writing, their window has been a disaster. It is difficult to see how they cope with the additional demands of Champions League football without a late flourish.

Tighe: Newcastle. It'd be no surprise if, come Sept. 2, the day after the window closes, Newcastle fans take stock and collectively think, "Well ... that sucked."


Which team will unexpectedly regress or struggle?

Connelly: Nottingham Forest is the obvious answer, if only because they overachieved dramatically against their underlying numbers last season. But if that's not unexpected enough, I will note that Chelsea got next to no time to rest this offseason and might end up struggling physically as a result. With good luck around injuries, they should be strong, but we'll see.

Dawson: Newcastle. Their squad-building hasn't gone as they had hoped this summer, and they've got the Champions League to contend with.

Hamilton: Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth, but for different reasons. Forest have European competition to contend with alongside their Premier League aspirations, so that will be tough to juggle. And for Bournemouth, although they've brought in reinforcements, their defense has been picked apart this summer with Milos Kerkez and Dean Huijsen both leaving and goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga's loan ending.

play
1:42
Will Zirkzee and Højlund both leave Manchester United?

Gab & Juls assess the futures of Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Højlund after Benjamin Šeško's arrival at Man United.

Laurens: Newcastle. There is the Isak issue and the lack of signings too, and they'll also be in the Champions League this season. The last time they were, it didn't work out for them in either.

Lindop: Nottingham Forest. They were the Premier League's surprise for much of last season, but with Europa League fixtures to contend with this term, Nuno Espirito Santo could see his squad stretched to the limit.

Marcotti: Aston Villa. Again, this could change since the window is still open, but Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, who gave them a midseason boost, are gone, there's no cover for Ollie Watkins and none of the three signings are likely to get significant minutes. Sure, Amadou Onana and Morgan Rogers can go to the next level, but that's a heavy lift.

Ogden: Everton. Their squad is too small, David Moyes is too conservative, and the move to a new stadium will put pressure on them to overperform.

Olley: Brentford. They are a very well-run club, but they've lost the manager who held everything together, and have said goodbye to their best player (this time, Mbeumo) for the second year in a row.

Tighe: Chelsea. In the past year, they've gone from Euro 2024, to a full Premier League campaign plus 13 European fixtures, then to a monthlong Club World Cup that left them just two weeks to prepare for the season. Surely they'll just crash at some stage?


Will Wrexham earn promotion to the Premier League?

Connelly: No. The water just got much deeper. They will be operating at a financial disadvantage compared to the best teams in the league. This is by far their biggest challenge yet.

Dawson: No. The Championship is one of the toughest leagues in the world, and they are competing against clubs armed with Premier League parachute payments.

Hamilton: Not this time around. They've strengthened well, but I expect them to finish in that corridor between the playoffs and midtable.

Laurens: No. They will have a good season and could make the playoffs, but will come up short.

Lindop: No. It has been a fairy-tale ride for Wrexham over the past few seasons, but the Championship is another level, and I think it will take a few more years of investment before they are in the top flight.

Marcotti: No. I don't follow the Championship (or Wrexham), so take it for what it's worth, but the second tier is a really expensive blackjack table at which to play.

Ogden: No. It's a huge leap from League One to the Championship, one that's too big to take in a single step.

Olley: No. They have been very shrewd with their transfers and it would be a fantastic story, but a third successive promotion feels a step too big this season. It'll happen at some point, though.

Tighe: No. It's hardly a hot take to suggest the step they've just made is the biggest one yet. The team they've assembled looks good, but not promotion-quality.


European soccer predictions

Though our writers are expecting business as usual for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, some of Europe's other competitions offer major intrigue and a variety of predictions.

Who's your 'hipster' pick for most entertaining team to watch in all of Europe?

Connelly: Barcelona will be the most entertaining again, but that's not a hipster pick. So let's go with Roma, who will either soar or crash with Gian Piero Gasperini as manager, and either one will be entertaining. If that's not hipster enough either, give me Nice. They score a ton of goals, and they're not against allowing a ton sometimes, too.

Dawson: Marseille. They've got some good players and Roberto De Zerbi's brand of football is risky and exciting. They could cause problems in the Champions League this season.

Hamilton: Manchester United. Not sure if it's "hipster," but they're never dull; there's always some drama going on there. You hope the additions of Mbuemo and Cunha will help their entertainment value on the pitch, while there's inevitably going to be something engrossing happening away from the field. Also, keep an eye on Paul Pogba's Monaco, Gasperini's Roma and Kevin De Bruyne at Napoli.

Laurens: Brighton had another good summer in terms of recruitment for Fabian Hürzeler ahead of season No. 2 together. I can't wait!

Lindop: I'm not sure if it's "hipster," but I'm going to go for Napoli again. The Serie A champions were great to watch last season and now they've added De Bruyne to the mix, so I'm really excited to see what they do.

Marcotti: Como. Not sure what's going to happen if and when they qualify for Europe and the Club Financial Control Body (CFCB) monsters come for them, but for now Cesc Fabregas' crew are a joy to watch, and they've already spent tons again this summer.

Ogden: Monaco. Pogba is chasing redemption, and he could be a star in Ligue 1.

Olley: I'm not -- and never will be -- a hipster, but it is impossible not to have a soft spot for Shakhtar Donetsk given what they have to contend with off the field.

Tighe: Galatasaray. The typical standard of defending in the Turkish Süper Lig is woeful, so watching Gala's major summer signings Leroy Sané and Victor Osimhen lay waste to their opponents should prove fun to watch.


One bold prediction

Connelly: Borussia Dortmund will give Bayern a major scare in the Bundesliga race. With Bayer Leverkusen starting over after the loss of Xabi Alonso, Florian Wirtz and others, there's an opening in the race for No. 2 in Germany.

BVB went unbeaten in their last eight league matches under Niko Kovac and played well in the Champions League knockout rounds; they were the second-best team in the Bundesliga in the spring, they added a fun, young midfielder in Jobe Bellingham, and if they can complete one of their rumored attacker additions in the coming weeks and the hard-nosed Kovac keeps everyone's attention, they could be dangerous. Meanwhile, Bayern's summer transfer spending didn't quite go as planned, and both Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies will be out for at least a couple of months because of injuries. It feels as if a challenge is conceivable here.

Dawson: Leeds United are going to buck the recent trend of teams promoted to the Premier League going straight back down. All three promoted teams have gone straight back down in each of the past two seasons. Leeds, powered by the atmosphere at Elland Road, are going to show everyone that Championship teams can stay up.

Hamilton: Evan Ferguson will finish top scorer in Serie A. He has been in good form during preseason for Roma, scoring a couple, and working under ex-Atalanta supremo Gasperini will help him. The Italian league has proven to be prosperous for those in the Premier League looking to rediscover their stride, and Ferguson should flourish in Serie A having moved there on loan from Brighton in the summer.

Laurens: PSG will win another treble to make it back-to-back trebles, which no team has ever done. And if Paris lift the UEFA Super Cup and the Intercontinental Cup this year, then I even predict that they will make it back-to-back quintuples.

Lindop: I'm going to predict Mikel Arteta will leave Arsenal by the end of the season. I'm not predicting Arsenal to have a disastrous campaign, but after several near misses, I think the pressure is on Arteta this season to deliver either the Premier League or Champions League, and I'm not massively convinced their transfer business so far puts them in a strong position to do that.

Marcotti: It's kind of hard to explain succinctly, but I think we're seeing a shift in how teams press and how they play through it. The high press basically means playing off opposition errors and doing so required more athletic, and possibly less technical, forward players. Faced with the high press, teams are opting for more technical defenders (and sometimes less athletic and sometimes midfielders in the back). No more of this four-CB set up, like we saw with City a couple of years ago. Already the types of press we see are evolving, and I expect it to continue. Ultimately, I say good riddance to it.

Ogden: Rashford scores 20-plus goals for Barcelona and restores his reputation after his Manchester United nightmare. If Antony was able to tear up LaLiga during his six-month loan at Real Betis last season, Rashford will do even better because he is playing for a team that will dominate virtually every game it plays.

Olley: The verdict in Manchester City's 115 alleged rule breaches could cause chaos in the Premier League. It is ludicrous this has dragged on for so long -- the original plan was to have a decision by March -- and so it seems certain now to bleed into another season. Whatever the outcome, there probably will be appeals and separate arbitration cases relating to potential compensation. It is a cloud that continues to hang over the English top flight. Whether City are innocent or guilty, fans deserve clarity, but the fallout could have far-reaching and damaging complications.

Tighe: Graham Potter will be sacked before Christmas, having failed to imprint any sort of meaningful style upon this mishmash of a West Ham squad. They'll attempt to go big in replacing him, targeting continental names such as Marco Rose or Sérgio Conceição ... before appointing Gary O'Neil. They'll finish 15th.