On this date last year, Major League Baseball teams had spent around $2.1 billion on free agents. So far this year, that number is shy of $1.4 billion. And as big as that difference seems, it's impossible not to notice the gap between the two numbers shares the same first digit as Juan Soto's $765 million megadeal with the New York Mets signed last December.
Each offseason has its own unique pace, but like last year's market, this year is moving quickly in some areas and more deliberately in others. This winter has seen an early emphasis on pitching -- owed, perhaps, to the scarcity of quality hitters. At the same time, a number of big bats remain available.
In fact, the top five players on Kiley McDaniel's ranking of the top 50 free agents are still without a team. The ones who have signed are running about $140 million over his estimates, a difference comprised almost entirely by the three biggest deals: Dylan Cease for $210 million ($65 million over expectations), Pete Alonso for $155 million ($45 million) and Kyle Schwarber for $150 million ($22 million).
McDaniel's overall projection of $3.46 billion leaves plenty of money left to be spent throughout the rest of free agency. Considering the Boston Red Sox haven't signed a player, the New York Yankees have spent just $5 million on free agents and the bottom 20 teams have spent less combined ($207 million) than the top team (Toronto Blue Jays, $277 million), there will be deals aplenty coming soon.
For now, here is a temperature check on different segments of the market and where they stand going forward.
Top-of-the-market bats
Temperature: Comfortable
Yes, it's Dec. 18, and Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette still have not signed. There is not yet panic, though, and understandably so. Because there is too much need from teams with World Series aspirations -- and too few impact-type players to fill that demand.
Boston needs a big bat badly, whether it's Bregman or a replacement. The New York Mets, for all of their austerity thus far this winter, could stand to -- and afford to -- add one as well. And there are enough other teams that either can weather a nine-figure outlay (Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies) or have the need for a player of that ilk (Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks) that none of the four is in danger of his market collapsing.
Bregman and Bellinger have taken shorter-term deals with opt-outs in the past, so both are looking for the security of long-term deals. Neither is likely to move off such an ask. Bregman figures to seek six years. At 30 years old, Bellinger could pursue even longer. Tucker is the clear jewel of the class and the shoo-in for highest-paid player. The best player can afford patience, so as clear as the ties are to Toronto, there has been no rush for Tucker to get a deal done. And Bichette, at the end of the day, is 27, plays in the middle infield and has twice led the American League in hits. Players with that sort of resume, and particularly at that age, get theirs.
Sure, there's a chance one of them slips between the cracks and signs a short-term, high-dollar deal that includes early opt-outs and allows the pursuit of a bigger deal next winter. That's the long game. For now, the staring contests continue.
Top-tier starting pitchers
Temperature: Chilly ... but about to warm up
Once Cease got paid on Thanksgiving Eve, the market for the best starting pitchers looked like it would be bountiful for all to follow. In the three weeks since, none of the higher-end group -- Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez, Michael King and Zac Gallen -- has signed. That could change soon, sources said.
Much of the same applies to the frontline pitchers as it does the hitters. The Baltimore Orioles have eyed a top starter since free agency opened. The Mets gladly will spend on one if the years are short. The Houston Astros are in the mix, the Yankees are dabbling, the Los Angeles Angels remain part of the conversation, the Cubs still could use an arm and the San Diego Padres are involved as ever.\
And lest we forget: The Diamondbacks came out of nowhere last year to pluck Corbin Burnes for $210 million on Dec. 30. Mystery teams can be real.
This stratum is slightly different from the hitters in that it encompasses pitchers seeking longer-term deals with those likelier to consider something shorter. Valdez, Imai and Suarez want years. King, after an injury-filled season, recognizes that teams value him for the frontline potential on a shorter deal, while Gallen could target an opt-out to hit the market again off a better platform year than 2025 - or continue the better-than-expected deals this winter and get locked up..
What's clear is that even if the Cease deal didn't create an immediate waterfall effect, the desire for pitching remains acute, as evidenced by a tier down from the top.
Mid-tier starting pitching
Temperature: Febrile
The prices being spent on back-of-the-rotation arms reflects teams' desires to enter a season with at least six, and preferably more, major league-caliber starting pitchers. They've been lofty, either in dollars or years. Merrill Kelly, at 37, got two years and $40 million from Arizona. The St. Louis Cardinals gave Dustin May one year at $12.5 million. Adrian Houser, coming off a winter in which he signed a minor league deal, will receive $22 million from the San Francisco Giants over the next two seasons. And one great year in Korea netted Cody Ponce a guaranteed $30 million over three years from Toronto.
There are still starters aplenty available. Chris Bassitt is the best of the bunch for teams seeking innings -- only five pitchers have thrown more over the past four seasons -- and Lucas Giolito has the highest ceiling. Nick Martinez and Zack Littell are steady strike-throwers, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander quadragenarians with enough stuff and know-how to succeed, and Tyler Mahle and German Marquez tantalizing to teams that dream on what they could get out of a full, healthy season. Walker Buehler remains a prime bounce-back candidate, Patrick Corbin a lefty who can pitch forever and Michael Lorenzen an ever-ready swingman.
Depending on prices, truly every team could target this tier. Among those who have been most aggressive in mid-tier pursuit, according to sources: the White Sox, Orioles, Angels, Nationals, Mets, Padres and Diamondbacks.
Japanese free agents
Temperature: Warming
Those coming from Nippon Professional Baseball have different rules than domestic free agents. When they enter the posting system, which facilitates the NPB-to-MLB transfer, a 45-day window to sign begins.
For Imai and corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, the window is closing. For Munetaka Murakami, it's almost shut.
Murakami, the slugging 25-year-old corner infielder, must sign with an MLB team by 5 p.m. ET Monday. While plenty of teams have balked at Murakami's strikeout rate, in-zone swing-and-miss and questionable defensive position, one high-ranking executive this week said: "He's still got 90 raw power." Meaning: Murakami's immense power breaks the scouting scale that ranks players on scores of 20 to 80.
Even with the concerns, Murakami could find himself signing a long-term deal for the sort of price that locks him up through his prime years. If a shorter-term, big-dollar deal that allowed Murakami to hit the market again while still in his 20s were presented, he could potentially position himself to re-enter free agency having answered the questions teams had and getting the sort of mega-deal that is unlikely to greet him now.
Imai is the most electric starter on the board, pumping his fastball up to 99 mph and inviting big-city attention. He could wind up with the biggest deal of the remaining frontline pitchers, and with MLB teams trying to -- but not always succeeding at -- limit work between Christmas and New Year's, Imai's Jan. 2 posting-window expiration either means there will be a rush in the next week to sign him or some team is going to buy itself a very nice after-Christmas present.
Only two days later, Okamoto's window ends. He is near the top of the mid-tier bat market - and some teams see him as a tick above that, capable of hitting for average and power while regularly putting the bat on the ball. At 29, Okamoto is by no means wizened, and considering the relatively grim nature of the next category, teams will be pushing hard for him before Jan. 4.
All non-elite bats
Temperature: Cold
This isn't entirely a surprise. Back-end bats often spill into January and even February before signing. The line of demarcation is particularly clear in this free agent class' still-available hitters, though. The top-tier ends with Murakami, who McDaniel projected to receive $90 million, and the next one begins at Suarez, who he pegged for $45 million.
Beyond Suarez, whose 49-homer season was counterbalanced by a sub-.300 on-base percentage, infield bats are few and far between. Ryan O'Hearn deserves a starting first-base spot somewhere. Luis Arráez's three batting titles will get him a job, though not the immense payday it would've a generation ago. There are solid veterans (Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins), youngish switch hitters (Willi Castro, Luis Rengifo, Yoan Moncada) and Korean third baseman Sung Mun Song.
The catching, outfield and DH groups are even more sparse. J.T. Realmuto is a solid everyday catcher. The others are mostly backups. Center fielder Harrison Bader should get a multiyear deal after his strong finish last year. The best of the rest -- Max Kepler, Rob Refsnyder, Michael Conforto -- will need to earn everyday at-bats. And at 35, Marcell Ozuna is still a legitimate on-base threat and will get a deal from a team hoping he recaptures the power that eluded him this year as he dipped from 40 and 39 home runs the previous two seasons to 21.
Trade market
Temperature: Tepid
At this juncture last winter, Garrett Crochet, Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Andres Gimenez had been traded. In the weeks ahead, Josh Naylor and Jesus Luzardo would move, too. This year, the biggest names who have been dealt so far are Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien -- and the deal was a one-for-one swap.
What looked like a bonanza of trade possibilities this winter has turned into a complete slog. The names available in trades (Ketel Marte, Jarren Duran, Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Brendan Donovan, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Lowe, C.J. Abrams, Willson Contreras, Luis Robert Jr.) and even those not necessarily (Tarik Skubal) are the sorts that would inject intrigue into any offseason.
Instead, there is gridlock.
While it's far too early to give up hope on blockbusters, the languid pace of the trade market has contributed to the slow top end of the free agent market. Almost every trade candidate comes at a far more palatable salary than free agents are asking, but the corresponding requests in player return have persisted at levels that make acquiring teams too uncomfortable to accede.
The Diamondbacks understandably want a huge return for Marte: major league-ready talent, plus minor league upside. The Red Sox will want value for Duran, even if their outfield glut is untenable so long as Masataka Yoshida is in Boston. Peralta doesn't need to go anywhere for a World Series-contending Brewers team. Washington can hold onto Gore and Abrams for another year if need be. And while executives believe Donovan will get moved, the Cardinals have set specific terms for him and have no desire to waver.
Trades will happen. Promise. They have to. Teams are talking right now, working through different concepts, perhaps one trade begetting another. There are plenty more avenues. Whether it's an acquiring team missing out on its top free agent and using trade market to backfill or a dealing team reaching its preferred sell-by date, the mechanisms of the winter always win out. An offseason without multiple substantial trades is simply not something baseball does.
Relief pitching
Temperature: Scorching ... but cooling fast
The biggest winners of the winter thus far have been relief pitchers. Almost every one of consequence has landed a deal big in years, money or both. There have been 18 deals guaranteeing $20 million or more this winter. Eight of them belong to relievers.
Edwin Diaz: three years, $69 million (the highest average annual value ever for a reliever, even after factoring in deferrals)
Devin Williams: three years, $51 million (coming off a season with a 4.79 ERA)
Robert Suarez: three years, $45 million
Tyler Rogers: three years, $37 million
Ryan Helsley: two years, $28 million
Brad Keller: two years, $22 million
Luke Weaver: two years, $22 million
Emilio Pagan: two years, $20 million
And that's to say nothing of Raisel Iglesias getting $16 million and Kenley Jansen $11 million for a year, Kyle Finnegan nabbing $19 million over two and Gregory Soto leading the left-handed market at $7.75 million.
The only closer left is Pete Fairbanks, who should get either multiple years or well over the $11 million option declined by Tampa Bay. Beyond that, the pickings are slim. Seranthony Dominguez throws hard, strikes out hitters and should find a soft landing. Shawn Armstrong was among the most unhittable relievers in baseball this year. An array of left-handers, from Sean Newcomb to Taylor Rogers to Danny Coulombe, could be snatched up soon, though the best available one is Matt Strahm, who is likely to be traded by Philadelphia.