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ESPN.com

Jul 21, 2016, 11:06 AM

The anti-Drummond? Damian Lillard

Measure	Andre SD*	Rank (of 304)	Damian SD*	Rank
Vertical angular release consistency	1.86 degrees	141	1.45 degrees	8
Release height consistency	0.36 feet	219	0.32 feet	116
Horizontal position release consistency	0.45 feet	304	0.33 feet	191
Horizontal angular release consistency	2.26 degrees	301	1.5 degrees	42
Approach consistency (long/short)	0.46 feet	290	0.34 feet	38
Approach consistency (left/right)	0.37 feet	304	0.25 feet	30
*SD = standard deviation = 68% of shots fall within this range)

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Typical guard vs. typical big

Research guru Michael Beuoy, of Inpredictable.com, crunched data from hundreds of free throw shooters of various heights and determined that the 7-foot Dirk Nowitzki and the 6-foot-3 Kyrie Irving exhibit the most typical arcs of tall and shorter players, respectively. They also happen to be great free throw shooters.

As you can see, Nowitzki (in blue) starts his shot at a higher launching point, and, of course, the ball peaks higher as well. But the more interesting thing is that Irving needs to shoot with more power, as evidenced by his average release velocity of 24.0 feet per second, compared to Nowitzki's 22.7 feet per second. Since Irving is shorter, he has to cover more ground to get it up and over the rim. From this perspective, it pays to be taller.

So why, then, don't taller players shoot better than shorter players? A higher arc means a higher approach velocity, which leads to a more violent bounce. If it lands off by even a little bit, it's off by a lot.

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Explaining Drummond's free throws

An Andre Drummond free throw is like a snowflake; no two attempts are the same -- which is a problem. He struggles at releasing from the same spot on the floor each time.

For an average shooter, 80 percent of their shots start from within a five-inch zone. For Drummond, that zone is over a foot wide (14 inches). He also struggles with hitting the target.

A horizontal angular release of zero means the shot is aimed directly at the hoop. However, 80 percent of Drummmond's shots fall within a range of 5.64 degrees.

Damian Lillard, in many ways, is the anti-Drummond. His range is just 3.8 degrees, which ranks 42nd among 304 shooters. Where Lillard stands out is his ability to keep his shot arc (vertical angular release) almost exactly the same every time. He ranks eighth among 304 in this area.

Lillard ranks above-average in consistency in five of the six categories. No wonder he made about 90 percent of his freebies last season.

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