During the preseason, all 32 NFL teams have high expectations, but a lot can impact the race to Super Bowl LX over 17 regular-season games. There are often record-setting performances, unforeseen surprises -- off the field and on it -- and impactful variables we're not even thinking about. The 2025 season will be no different.
To look at the bigger picture and just how good -- or bad -- every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2025, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated.
If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would its record look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. However, our reporters weren't allowed to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.
Let's go division by division, picking X factors for all 32 teams:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: The defensive line
What is this Buffalo defensive line capable of? The Bills made it an emphasis in the offseason to invest in what they viewed as a clear issue, and that was the group up front on the defensive side of the ball, as they selected three linemen in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft. That young group making an impact would be significant, and T.J. Sanders standing out during training camp is a positive sign. On the other end, keeping Joey Bosa healthy for the postseason is a clear priority. More consistency is needed from the likes of Greg Rousseau on the outside and Ed Oliver on the inside for this group to take a step forward. -- Alaina Getzenberg
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Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The secondary
Can the Dolphins' secondary hold up behind a strong front seven? Miami shouldn't have trouble pressuring quarterbacks this season with Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler all healthy in training camp. Behind them, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick leads a secondary that replaces four of its five starters from last season. The Dolphins' cornerbacks are young and unproven, but their inexperience could be mitigated by (what should be) a proficient pass rush. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The Mike Vrabel effect
In his introductory news conference as coach, Vrabel said, "We just want to be good enough to take advantage of bad football." For the most part, the Patriots have had the look of a buttoned-up team so far, which included an impressive 48-18 win against the Commanders in the preseason opener. Vrabel, preaching an identity that starts with "effort and finish," is all about the details. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Aaron Glenn and a new culture
The first-year coach inherits a penalty-prone team that got pushed around in the trenches and cracked under pressure (last season, the Jets had a franchise-record six losses after leading in the fourth quarter). In a word, the 2024 Jets were soft. Glenn's mission is to make the Jets physically and mentally tougher than last season. If he can accomplish that, his first year will be a success. -- Rich Cimini
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Rookie kicker Tyler Loop
As if he didn't face enough pressure in replacing Justin Tucker, Loop also could decide a lot of games based on recent history. Last season, Tucker was 9-of-16 (56.3%) in the Ravens' five losses and was 13-of-14 (92.9%) in their 12 wins. Over the past five years, rookie kickers have made 82.8% of their field goal attempts (428 of 517). There will be plenty of critical kicking situations because quarterback Lamar Jackson keeps Baltimore in games and hasn't lost a game decided by more than one score since 2023. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Defensive coordinator Al Golden
It's no secret that the Bengals' defense is what cost them a playoff bid last season. Cincinnati is hoping having Golden as its new defensive coordinator for 2025 will be key to unlocking the potential of the team's young talent. Getting better play from the secondary will be crucial to any defensive improvement this season. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
The Browns are returning to the offensive scheme Kevin Stefanski operated in his first few seasons as coach, with an emphasis on running the ball. For that to be successful, Cleveland will need its offensive line to return to dominant form. The Browns have an experienced line but an aging one, too. Only one projected starter -- left tackle Dawand Jones -- is under 30. -- Daniel Oyefusi
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
Though Mike Tomlin (famously without a losing season) is the ultimate X factor in elevating his team's floor every year, this Steelers season will be largely dictated by the unit tasked with protecting 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. Last year, the Steelers' offensive line gave up 49 sacks, among the most in the league. The group, led by second-year center Zach Frazier, has more experience, but tackles Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu are essentially entering their first seasons playing at their positions in the NFL. Jones struggled at times at right tackle the past two years, but he enters this season at his natural left tackle position, while Fautanu is at right after missing most of last season with injury. -- Brooke Pryor
AFC South
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
Can the group protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and establish the line of scrimmage in the run game? If the Texans' offensive line can't protect the third-year QB and running the ball effectively, the hopes of getting to Super Bowl LX will vanish in a blink of an eye. -- DJ Bien-Aime
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Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Defensive end Laiatu Latu
Can Latu make a second-year jump? The Colts are betting heavily on their 2024 first-round pick, evidenced by them letting top edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo depart in free agency. That was a calculated risk based on Latu's obvious pass-rush skills and high ceiling. But the UCLA product has to tap further into that potential this season and get more production than the four sacks he registered last season. If Latu steps up, it might help unlock the full potential of a talented defensive line. -- Stephen Holder
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Pass defense
The defense must be much better at limiting explosive pass plays. The Jaguars' unit gave up a league-high 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards for a league-high 770 yards (due mainly to coverage busts), and that was a significant reason Jacksonville gave up 25.6 points per game in 2024 (fourth worst in the NFL). The signings of safety Eric Murray (from Baltimore) and cornerback Jourdan Lewis (from Dallas) and drafting Travis Hunter (whenever he does play defense) should help. -- Michael DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
Giving Cameron Ward enough time in the pocket is possibly the biggest factor in his development. The Titans signed Dan Moore Jr. to an $80 million contract, which shows their commitment to protecting Ward. Moore's success is critical because it allows Tennessee to improve at both left and right tackle since last year's starter JC Latham flipped sides to give the Titans what they hope will be bookend protectors for their rookie quarterback. -- Turron Davenport
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The refurbished defense
The Broncos took an already top-shelf defense -- No. 3 in scoring defense, No. 1 in sacks and No. 1 in defensive EPA in 2024 -- and added LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga in free agency as well as CB Jahdae Barron with their first pick in April's draft. Greenlaw and Hufanga have battled injuries in the past, and Greenlaw missed the Broncos' on-field work in the offseason program and over a week of training camp, both times with leg injuries. Linebacker Alex Singleton also missed some time in camp with a fractured thumb; LB Drew Sanders will miss several weeks with a ligament injury in his foot; and safety Brandon Jones was held out of the joint practice with the 49ers. If the Broncos get healthy and are able to keep largely the same group on the field for 15, 16 or 17 games, it's a championship-level defense that could fuel a deep run in the playoffs and one of the reasons coach Sean Payton has said he believes the Broncos are a Super Bowl-caliber team. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons
The Chiefs are ready to have their offense become a spaceship again. But for that to happen, quarterback Patrick Mahomes will need time and proper protection with help from Simmons to load up his right arm. With few changes on defense, the most the Chiefs can improve on from last season is their offense, which they'd like to see consistently put 30 points on the scoreboard. If Simmons struggles, Mahomes will once again have to overcome a pretty big obstacle. -- Nate Taylor
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Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
The Raiders' success in 2025 will depend largely on their performance in the trenches. When pressured, quarterback Geno Smith threw the most interceptions in the league (13) and ranked 25th in QBR (19.6) last season. Indeed, Smith is an upgrade at quarterback for Las Vegas, but the Raiders are going to need their offensive line to provide solid protection so he can unlock the full potential of Chip Kelly's offense. -- Ryan McFadden
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: The rushing offense
In offensive coordinator Greg Roman's first news conference, he asked reporters: "Can you imagine Justin Herbert with a great running game?" A year later, the Chargers and Roman are still imagining. The Chargers' rushing offense was inconsistent and at times nonexistent last season, as they finished the season ranked 17th in the NFL in yards per game (110.7). If Los Angeles can build the run game Roman promised -- led by running backs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton -- the ceiling for this Chargers team could significantly change. -- Kris Rhim
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Brian Schottenheimer
How ready is Schottenheimer for his first head coaching job? He saw his father, Marty, coach four teams, and has been an assistant coach in the NFL for more than 20 years. Players like the culture he has built so far in the spring and summer, but he will be counted on to make split-second decisions that will impact winning and losing, which ultimately will be how he is judged. The Cowboys aren't a typical team, given the attention they receive on an hourly basis. -- Todd Archer
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New York Giants
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Left tackle Andrew Thomas
We've seen it the past two seasons -- the Giants without Thomas are in trouble, having gone 3-14 without him. Thomas is currently on the physically unable to perform list after Lisfranc surgery on his foot last year. Fortunately for the Giants, he's on pace to return for their Week 1 game at Washington, according to a league source. New York also has more depth on its offensive line this season. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Running back Saquon Barkley
What can Barkley do for an encore? The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year became the ninth player to rush for 2,000-plus yards during the regular season, fueling Philadelphia's Super Bowl charge. None of the previous eight players to reach 2,000 yards was able to accomplish the feat the following season -- all finished with 1,500 yards or less the next year. The Eagles can't afford too sharp of a drop-off. "It's so hard to do it twice," Barkley said, "because it's hard to do it the first time." -- Tim McManus
Washington Commanders
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: The improved defense
Washington's offense will face more challenges playing 11 games against teams ranked in the top 13 scoring defenses last season. The Commanders need more from their defense, specifically in the fourth quarter. They ranked 18th in scoring and 13th in yards (though 30th in rushing yards per game), but in the fourth quarter they ranked 28th or worse in nine key categories. Their secondary should be much improved with the addition of rookie corner Trey Amos and a healthy Marshon Lattimore -- but the latter needs to be durable, something he hasn't been the past three years. A beefed-up defensive line, with multiple key additions including pass rusher Von Miller, needs to produce. -- John Keim
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Ben Johnson's offense
How quickly will the Bears be able to execute Johnson's offense? Chicago went out and got the best playcaller available this offseason with the belief that some ingenuity and creativity can create one of the most explosive units in the NFL -- a characterization not historically associated with Chicago offenses. But how many games will it take for the offense to operate at a high-functioning level? The Lions started out slow during Johnson's first season calling plays in 2022, and Johnson said what he's asking of his current players is more complex than what Detroit's were tasked with early on. The key to success comes from Johnson creating opportunities for quarterback Caleb Williams to gain confidence in executing the scheme early on, even as he's still aiming to master the details. -- Courtney Cronin
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: New coordinators
How fast will the Lions adjust to new coordinators Kelvin Sheppard and John Morton? After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit lost both coordinators -- Aaron Glenn (Jets) and Ben Johnson (Bears) -- to head coaching roles this offseason. Now, Sheppard, Detroit's leader on defense, and Morton, the offensive guru, are taking on key roles for a team with high expectations to reach Super Bowl LX. They both will be under the microscope, with Detroit playing a first-place schedule after winning its division. The Lions are the fourth team since 2000 to lose both of their coordinators to head coaching jobs in the same offseason, per ESPN Research. -- Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley
What more could Hafley do than rank fifth in the NFL in total defense, seventh against the run and sixth in fewest points allowed -- all in his first season at the helm? If he can find a consistent pass rush, then this thing could go to the next level. Hafley would prefer to follow the Eagles' model of getting home with four, but that didn't generate enough pressure last season. The Packers ranked 17th in the NFL in pressures last season, according to ESPN Research. Given that they didn't add a significant pass rusher in free agency or early in the draft, it will be up to Hafley -- and perhaps new defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington -- to find a way. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The run game
Is Kevin O'Connell serious about the run game? The Vikings coach took a step toward balancing his offense in 2024 from its pass-happy ways in 2022-23, but the ascendance of first-time starter J.J. McCarthy will necessitate a bigger shift. The Vikings will also need to run more effectively after ranking 25th in the NFL last season in EPA on running plays. There is good reason to think they can, after pairing Jordan Mason with Aaron Jones Sr. in the backfield and acquiring three new starters on the line. McCarthy continued to develop during training camp, but counting on him to be a 4,000-yard passer in his first season seems unrealistic. -- Kevin Seifert
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Tight end Kyle Pitts Sr.
A great deal of the Falcons' fortunes this season rest on the left arm of second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but a great deal of Penix's fortunes rest with Pitts. If Pitts can even approach his Pro Bowl rookie output of 1,026 yards on 68 catches in 2021, Penix will have another elite player joining wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson. Pitts, 24, has not eclipsed the 700-yard mark in any of his previous three seasons, but he says he's healthier now and has already formed a connection on and off the field with Penix. -- Marc Raimondi
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: The defense
Can the league's worst defense in 2024 become a top-20 unit? If quarterback Bryce Young picks up where he left off the final three games of last season, the success of this team will come down to defense. Carolina ranked last in almost every major statistical category. The Panthers have made an effort to beef up the run defense and pass rush with free agency and draft additions, such as defensive tackle Bobby Brown III and Nic Scourton. Stopping the run is first and foremost -- Carolina allowed the most rushing yards in the league (3,057) and the third-most rushing yards in NFL history. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Skill position players' health
Can the skill position players stay healthy? The Saints' offense got off to a fast start in the first two games last season, but that turned quickly in Week 3 when tight end Taysom Hill was out with an injury, followed by wide receiver Rashid Shaheed's injury in Week 6 and WR Chris Olave sustaining the first of many concussions in Week 6. The Saints struggled with injuries all over the team last year, but the health and performance of Shaheed and Olave will be a key piece of the puzzle this season, especially with a young quarterback at the helm. -- Katherine Terrell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Ball-hawking
The Bucs had just seven interceptions last season -- their lowest pick total since at least 2000. They were 2-5 in one-score games in 2024 and 1-2 in games decided by three points or less, so flipping the field just one time could make all the difference -- which is why getting interceptions was such a big point of emphasis in the draft (selecting corners Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish) and throughout training camp practices. -- Jenna Laine
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NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
After his good-but-not-great rookie season, the expectation around the Cardinals is that Harrison will make the coveted jump in Year 2. Through training camp, he looks like he's on pace to do just that. He added 11 pounds of muscle and is moving as quickly as he did when he was lighter. Harrison's performance this season -- whether he can consistently show up throughout a full game, make tough catches and put up big numbers -- could dictate whether the Cardinals make the playoffs. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
A big part of this is how healthy the unit is, and how healthy it can stay. It's unknown whether left tackle Alaric Jackson, who is dealing with blood clots in his lower leg, will be ready to start Week 1, and him missing any time would be a huge blow for the Rams' hopes at another double-digit-win season. That unit will be especially important in 2025, as veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford deals with back soreness entering his 17th season. -- Sarah Barshop
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: The youth movement
Can the many young players the 49ers are counting on take a step forward and produce quickly? The Niners said goodbye to nearly 20 players via free agency, release or trade, and they didn't spend much on signing outside players to fill those gaps. Instead, the Niners are counting on an 11-player draft class and plenty of other young veterans to become full-time starters or key reserves. San Francisco is banking on star-level production from its elite players, but it could easily have as many as seven first- or second-year players starting on defense. The Niners will need at least some of those guys to make a big leap in order to return to contender status. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
Rookie left guard Grey Zabel, the team's 2025 first-round pick, might be the only upgrade Seattle made to a starting five that was often overmatched in 2024. The biggest reason for optimism, however, isn't with the personnel as much as it is with the coordinator. Between running the ball, getting the quarterback outside the pocket and operating less out of shotgun, Klint Kubiak is running a scheme that will make life much easier on the O-line than that of his predecessor, Ryan Grubb. The swing factor within the swing factor is whether right tackle Abraham Lucas, who has flashed dominance when healthy, can stay on the field. -- Brady Henderson