In a not-so-distant future, sportswriters around the country might be tasked with writing a quick summary on the Bengals' trade of star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. To help them with that mad scramble, I have written two ledes (that are free to copy, word for word). Here is the first:
After consecutive seasons missing the playoffs, the Bengals continue reloading their roster, trading away a 30-year-old pass rusher after a peak season.
And here is the second:
Despite contending aspirations, the Bengals refuse their sack leader's contract request, weakening their struggling defense via a last-minute trade.
Are either of these good ledes? No. But both could stand atop a quick summary of a potential Hendrickson trade and hold equal truth, depending on the spin the author wants to give.
There's no end in sight for the contract dispute between the 30-year-old Hendrickson and the Bengals, which is sparking more trade rumblings. It has gone on for so long and taken so many turns that it bears recalling how it came to this point, explaining why both sides are right(ish) and trying to figure out what will happen next.
Jump to a section:
How much has actually changed?
How big could a Hendrickson extension be?
How much trouble is this defense in?
Which teams could trade for him?
What's the most likely outcome now?
How did we get here?
This Hendrickson contract dispute really started two years ago. At the time, he was halfway through a four-year, $60 million deal he had signed as a free agent in 2021.
When Hendrickson signed that deal, he was coming off his first year as a starter for the Saints, racking up 13.5 sacks in 15 games. The Bengals rewarded him with a long contract, but in typical Bengals fashion, it came with minimal guarantees. Only $16 million of his $60 million contract was guaranteed at signing. Compare that to the other edge rushers who signed deals in that 2021 offseason: Carl Lawson, who Hendrickson replaced in Cincinnati, was given a three-year deal worth $45 million by the Jets, of which $30 million was guaranteed; Shaquil Barrett got a four-year, $68 million deal from the Buccaneers with $34.5 million guaranteed; and Bud Dupree left the Steelers for the Titans and signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with $35 million guaranteed. This was the going rate for a 26- to 28-year-old second contract edge rusher at the time.
These deals are significant not just for the difference in guarantees, but what happened next: Hendrickson outperformed them all. Dupree struggled in Tennessee and was released after two seasons. Barrett was an All-Pro in the first season of his extension, but regressed thereafter, only making one Pro Bowl in the next five seasons. Lawson ruptured an Achilles tendon before ever taking a snap in a Jets uniform and never returned to form.
Meanwhile, Hendrickson made four straight Pro Bowls. He missed three games in four seasons, recording 57 sacks over 65 games -- just three behind Myles Garrett and 1.5 behind T.J. Watt over that stretch. As his contemporaries from the 2021 free agent class faded, other star rushers got extensions, and the edge market exploded.
The next offseason, Haason Reddick, Harold Landry III and Maxx Crosby all got bigger deals -- 32-year-olds Von Miller and Chandler Jones, too. In the spring of 2023, Rashan Gary and Montez Sweat signed deals worth over $24 million per year, while Nick Bosa reset the market with a deal worth over $34 million annually.
By the summer of 2023, Hendrickson was one of the most underpaid edge rushers on the market, and he set out to address that. He and the Bengals reached terms on a one-year extension that bumped up his APY, added $21 million in new money and guaranteed some of that money in the form of an $8 million roster bonus. That additional year is the 2025 season, but Hendrickson has said he will not play out the deal.
Structurally, this additional year is quite team-friendly (the final years of long extensions often are). In exchange for giving Hendrickson the raise he sought in 2023, as well as some guaranteed money, the Bengals secured an additional year of team control. He hits the cap for only $18.6 million this season -- 10th among edge rushers. None of his base salary -- $15.8 million -- is guaranteed, either. That means he will only be paid by the Bengals for games he plays for the club this season -- significant in the event of a midseason trade and remarkable in the event of an in-season holdout. For every week of the 18-week season Hendrickson misses, he'll be fined 1/18th of that $15.8 million salary -- $877,777.
Hendrickson is in a similar position to 2023. At that point, he had accumulated 22 sacks in 31 games with consecutive Pro Bowl appearances. This time, he has 35 sacks in 34 games (which leads the league), has added a first-team All-Pro nod to his résumé and once again dramatically outperformed his contract value. If the Bengals were willing to play ball with him then, why aren't they now?
That question is why Cincinnati isn't playing ball. Hendrickson already came to the team once, while under a contract that he signed, and asked for a new deal to reflect his level of play. The organization gave him that raise in exchange for an additional year of team control. Now that the Bengals are finally getting that additional year, Hendrickson wants to rip things up again? When he's two years older? And when there's almost no shot he outperforms his contract a third time? He would have to be setting single-season sack records to do so.
When Hendrickson signed that 2023 extension, he got more money upfront on a deal that was light on guarantees. In doing so, he gave the Bengals that additional year of team control, opting to hit the market in 2025 instead of 2024. Had he gotten banged up in the 2023 season, or if his play had fallen off, the extra financial security would have been huge. Instead, he excelled in 2023 and 2024, ascending into the upper echelon of edge rushers -- and now that free agent delay is hurting his earning potential.
Has anything changed to accelerate a trade?
That's how we got here in a general sense: unhappy Hendrickson, obstinate Bengals. How did we get here specifically? After months and months of negotiating, have the Bengals finally reached the end of their rope? Will Hendrickson be traded soon?
Probably not.
The Bengals and Hendrickson have gotten closer on an extension over the past few months. In June, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the two sides still disagreed on value and length in their contract talks. One month later, Schefter said: "The deal is in place, but there is a disagreement on the guaranteed money in the deal."
During the Bengals' preseason game against the Commanders last week, ESPN's Laura Rutledge spoke to Hendrickson and reported that the two sides agree on contract length and total value, yet remain far apart on guarantees. This is not unsurprising since Cincinnati is notoriously reluctant to include guaranteed money beyond the first year of any contract extension, only making recent exceptions for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and (to a degree) Tee Higgins.
Still, movement on length and total value implies some degree of positive momentum. Despite the reports the two parties might be close to an agreement, why are there suddenly rumors about a trade?
The first is as a negotiating tactic. Hendrickson is staring down big fines while his teammates finish their preseason and prepare for Week 1. If his resolve is beginning to crack, maybe some rumblings that he could become a Carolina Panther will spur him to give a little ground on those guaranteed numbers.
As Burrow pointed out, the Bengals recently signed extensions in the past couple of weeks before the season: His megadeal was signed on Sept. 7, 2023; running back Joe Mixon signed his extension on Sept. 2, 2020; and wide receiver A.J. Green signed his on Sept. 11, 2015. Defensive linemen Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap were signed on the same day -- Aug. 29, 2018. At the time, Atkins' $16.3 million APY was the biggest number for a non-quarterback over 30 years old.
If the Bengals believe Hendrickson's deal is close and needs a little extra push, perhaps they're using the trade rumors as a final tactic of leverage. That, to me, feels like the more likely explanation.
But it is also possible negotiations have been so stagnant for so long that the Bengals are finally taking a serious look at options: They might actually trade Hendrickson. Reportedly, their asking price is steep (which is why I believe the first explanation more than this one). Any team acquiring Hendrickson will then have to pay him the contract he seeks, and in that it is a very large contract, trading the pick(s) and spending the money makes the pill a little too big to swallow.
How big could a Hendrickson extension be?
Extending Hendrickson should be a preposterously easy exercise for the Bengals and a team possibly acquiring him. There has been so much recent activity in the edge rusher market that a clear contract range exists for a player of his age and production.
At the top end, there is Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett. Garrett, who is less than a year younger than Hendrickson, signed a four-year, $160 million deal ($40 million per year) in March. Over the past three seasons, Garrett and Hendrickson have had the same number of sacks (47) in the same number of games played (49). Garrett gets more attention from opposing offenses and is significantly better on run downs (Hendrickson's 17% run stop win rate ranks 459th out of 463 qualifying defensive linemen, linebackers and safeties over the past three years), but he can argue to be in Garrett's neighborhood as a pass rusher.
Just below Garrett on the edge rusher rankings is the Texans' Danielle Hunter, who signed a one-year extension in March worth $35.6 million onto his existing deal -- a little like the Hendrickson 2023 extension, except most of the money is guaranteed. Hunter is more comparable to Hendrickson in run defense but has been a cut below as a pass rusher over the past three seasons.
Fold in a few other recent edge rusher extensions if you like. Hendrickson's camp would rightfully argue that T.J. Watt, who is older than Hendrickson, just got $41 million per year from the Steelers despite being demonstrably less productive as a pass rusher. But remember: Chasing the bigger APY figure is what led to issues for Hendrickson. In that he's desperate to get some guaranteed money while he's still highly productive in his early 30s, signing him to a deal below $40 million per year but with guarantees through the first and into the second year feels feasible for the Bengals. For another team, guarantees could stretch well into Year 3.
It's those pesky guarantees that are the hang-up. Hunter has $54.1 million guaranteed over the two seasons of his deal in what is nearly a fully guaranteed pact. Maxx Crosby signed a three-year extension with $91.5 million guaranteed with the Raiders -- $62.5 million of which is in the first two years. Don't even look at Watt and Garrett, who had $108 million and $123.6 million guaranteed in their respective extensions.
If the Bengals are trying to meet Hendrickson somewhere in the middle and give him guarantees over the first two years of an extension, they will be lucky to get him between Hunter's and Crosby's numbers of $54.1 million and $62.5 million. Any figure in that range will dwarf the two-year guarantees given to any Bengal not named Chase or Burrow. Only $30 million in guarantees were given to Higgins on his four-year, $115 million extension ($40.9 million, if you want to include a roster bonus that triggers next season).
If the Bengals are offering Hendrickson guarantees in Year 2, they're likely trying to use a similar structure to the Higgins deal -- all of the real guarantees in Year 1 and then a Year 2 salary that guarantees shortly after the 2026 league year begins. By doing this, Cincinnati functionally creates more team option years (like Hendrickson's current 2025 contract) at the end of the deal -- years full of fat salaries but no guaranteed money that make players easily cuttable. Will Hendrickson take a deal that includes those years? Short of signing a Hunter-esque, fully guaranteed one-year extension, it's something he'll likely have to endure.
As I said above, this should be painfully easy. The same realities of the quarterback and wide receiver market that forced the Bengals to break their typical contract guardrails for Burrow and Chase are present in the edge rusher market. Top pass rushers get paid like top receivers in terms of yearly contract size and functional guarantees. While it was a little easier to see Chase's megadeal occurring than it was to see Hendrickson's, who has unlocked a new level of play in his late 20s, this is an excellent problem to have. Sure, signing 30-year-olds to big guarantees comes with more risk, but every team does it -- it's an inescapable reality of the NFL.
If an elite player at a premium position wants to sign a contract with you, do it.
What could the Bengals defense look like without Hendrickson?
Cincinnati isn't sure if it can financially endure Hendrickson's demands -- but can it endure his absence on the field? Forget about his elite play. He was one of a precious few good players for its defense last season. Of course, his 17.5 sacks and 65 pressures can only do so much. Despite his All-Pro efforts, the Bengals ranked 27th by defensive EPA per play and 29th by success rate. Only the Jaguars and Panthers gave up a new set of downs more frequently.
On the one hand, it feels like trading Hendrickson wouldn't matter too much. He was elite last season, and the Bengals were really bad on defense. Their particular struggle was in run defense. By success rate, this was one of the 20 worst run defenses of the past 15 years; it was average against dropbacks. As mentioned above, he is a low-impact run defender. He makes some plays as a penetration disruptor, but his win rate against run blocking is well below the league average, and that shows up on the film -- his effort wanes, he doesn't shed contact well and he struggles against double teams.
But imagine a Bengals defense that cannot stop the run at all, and then on that rare first-and-10 when they get a stop ... they don't have their ringer pass rusher to actually get off the field. Similarly, Hendrickson's willingness to sell out for early-down pass rushes (at the expense of run defense) helped them keep the opposing offense behind the sticks. Of his 17.5 sacks last season, 13.5 came on first and second down, which is tied for the most early-down sacks in a season this decade. The Bengals needed splashy negative plays to find flashes of viability as a defense, and Hendrickson hunted for those.
Consider a Hendrickson holdout that makes it to Week 1, when Cincinnati travels to Cleveland. The Bengals' brass likely feels justified in its approach to his contract negotiation thus far. But the team's young defense, even under a new defensive coordinator this season, suffers the same run issues. The Browns then lean on them on the ground. On those precious few early-down dropbacks they force, they can't get quick pressure or a drive-ending sack. Week 2 comes against Jacksonville -- who, like the Browns, aren't considered a top offense. But the same thing happens. No Hendrickson escape button to get the two or three stops the Bengals offense needs to win shootouts.
Suddenly, Hendrickson has a lot more leverage at the negotiating table, even as he incurs his holdout fines. Because the Bengals have gotten a taste of what defense looks like without him on the field, and it's painfully obvious, their only path to a Super Bowl involved a heroic Hendrickson effort. And they need him to get on the field now in order to be ready to deliver that in January.
Other outcomes are possible. The defense holds its own for the first few weeks -- maybe the run defense even improves without him on the field -- and the call for him to sign never gets unbearably loud. The extension gets done and we never see the Bengals defense without him. Or perhaps Hendrickson gets traded, and their defense is reimagined around another player altogether.
It's difficult to imagine any player returning in a trade and dramatically overhauling this defense. Perhaps in-season we'll be pleasantly surprised by the linebackers, defensive line and safeties -- but a glaring need at corner will demand filling. Still, trading Hendrickson is defensible because of one of those headlines I wrote above: That a team that has missed the postseason twice, in large part because of an underwhelming defense, is trading an outstanding performer it doesn't want to pay and who evidently cannot single-handedly save its defense anyway.
Which team could trade for Hendrickson at this point?
If Hendrickson gets dealt, measuring his trade package against potential deals from earlier this spring will be fascinating. I immediately recall when the Panthers sent edge rusher Brian Burns to the Giants for a second- and fifth-round pick in March 2024, not 18 months after declining two firsts and a second at the 2022 trade deadline. When the rest of the league knows you're painted into a trade corner, the offers drop in value fast. I wonder what trade offers long past come out of the woodwork, if and when Hendrickson gets dealt over the next few weeks.
Offers were always going to be better in February and March than they are in September and October. Teams have more money at the beginning of the league year, before they've signed any free agents; they have more draft picks, too, before the draft hits. With that said, big late-summer trades are not unprecedented.
A few examples jump to mind: One of the biggest in recent memory was the Khalil Mack trade, which happened on Sep. 1, 2018. He held out of the preseason for a new deal from the Raiders, but they flipped him to the Bears (and a second-round pick) for two firsts. Mack then signed a six-year, $141 million extension -- at that point the biggest deal for a defensive player in NFL history. Mack had an even stronger résumé then than Hendrickson does now -- two All-Pro seasons, including a Defensive Player of the Year award -- and he was only 27.
The Mack trade is perhaps the most forgivable of all late-summer expenditures of big draft capital -- it went pretty well for the Bears. The other ones aren't so excusable.
On Aug. 31, 2019, the Dolphins traded offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (who also had one year remaining on his contract) and some change for two first-round picks and a second. Tunsil was 25 at the time, but it's worth noting the Dolphins got a young tackle (Julien Davenport) in the deal, much as the Bengals are looking to get a young replacement back in their trade. Of course, after sending such value to secure him, the Texans were in a poor negotiating position. Tunsil played out the final year of his deal, then was signed to a three-year, $66 million contract that was the highest offensive line APY at the time. This trade was universally panned as bad business by the Texans at the time, and despite the fact that Tunsil was a pretty good left tackle for them, the juice was not worth the squeeze.
On July 25, 2020, the Jets traded safety Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks for two future first-round selections. Like Tunsil and Mack, Adams was young (24 years old) and approaching the end of his deal (he had two seasons remaining). Like Tunsil and Mack, the Seahawks had to give Adams the extension he sought: a four-year, $72 million deal that topped the safety market following the 2020 season. That trade was really, really bad for the Seahawks -- Adams struggled to stay healthy and make impactful plays even when he was on the field.
Hendrickson's age complicates things significantly. ESPN's Bill Barnwell pointed out that the last non-quarterback over 30 years old to return a first-round pick in a trade was Chris Doleman in 1994 -- a much different time.
Perhaps the best analogy for Hendrickson is Richard Seymour, who was traded on Sept. 6, 2009, from the Patriots to the Raiders -- a month before his 30th birthday. Seymour was entering the final year of his deal with the Patriots and coming off one of his best seasons (8 sacks, 11 TFLs, 17 QB hits). He was traded for a 2011 first-round pick -- two drafts in the future -- and without an extension in place, which led to a long and painful contract dispute. Much like the Tunsil deal, the Seymour trade was not considered shrewd business at the time for the Raiders, nor does it look much better in hindsight.
As such, it's impossible to say which team will trade for Hendrickson because it doesn't make sense. At cost, it is a universally bad idea. Sending a first-round pick for a non-quarterback over 30 is bad business. Making a big trade right before the season implies a frantic plugging of a short-term gap, which is rarely a good approach, either. It is financially achievable for almost all teams, depending on the sort of contracts they offload in the trade process -- and for some, it is financially prudent. The Patriots and Titans have plenty of money and not much young ascending talent they're preparing to pay. The Chargers and Seahawks have the room and the playoff aspirations, too. It might not be a good idea on paper, but it's not impossible -- similar trades have happened before. It only takes one team.
Should the Bengals become interested in, say, a second-round pick and cornerback Cam Hart in an offer from the Chargers, or a second-round pick and edge rusher Derick Hall from the Seahawks, then it becomes much more likely. But I don't think they will, nor am I sure those other teams will offer those packages -- not with the season around the corner and plenty of other possibilities to spend their future money on.
So what will happen next?
My prediction: The Bengals will announce a three-year extension with Hendrickson worth $38 million per year with over $60 million in new guarantees on Sept. 3.