Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is already underway, with the Eagles beating the Cowboys in the opener and the Chargers defeating the Chiefs in Brazil. We've been preparing for the regular season for weeks with previews and rankings, but just in case you still need some last-minute intel for the 14 games remaining on Sunday and Monday, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That's followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three potentially big surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen picking one key matchup to watch. Finally, sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado gives her favorite bet of Week 1.
Could Jahmyr Gibbs have a huge receiving game? Will the Bengals finally win in Week 1? Which two Jaguars should you add in your fantasy leagues? Let's dive in.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Best bet of the week
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 1 winners
Is Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs in line for a huge receiving day against the Packers' zone coverage?
One of my favorite stat splits is the discrepancy between a running back's receiving numbers against man and zone coverage. Backs were targeted on 10% of man coverage dropbacks last season and caught passes on 8% of such dropbacks. But against zone, those same numbers jumped to 18% and 15%, respectively. That's almost doubling the reception rate when facing zone looks!
Well, take a guess who ranked third in receiving yards among running backs and which team ranked second in zone coverage rate last season. That's right, Gibbs and the Packers. He should be set up for a huge day.
Will Buccaneers edge rusher Haason Reddick get the best of Falcons backup OT Elijah Wilkinson?
This is the first test to see what Reddick has left in the tank after his lost year with the Jets. It should be an easy one to clear.
Wilkinson will play right tackle for the Falcons with Kaleb McGary and Storm Norton injured. The last time Wilkinson played tackle was in 2021. And over the course of more than 1,300 snaps at tackle between 2019 to 2021, Wilkinson recorded a 73% pass block win rate. That mark would have ranked last among qualifying tackles in 2024.
Reddick, who recorded double-digit sacks in every season from 2020 to 2023, held out for the first six weeks of 2024 due to a contract dispute with the Jets. After returning, he recorded just one sack and a career-low 12% pass rush win rate over 10 games. If Reddick finds a way back to his old form, he should have no problem beating Wilkinson and being a real threat to Michael Penix Jr. But if he can't produce, this game could be a rough sign for the rest of the Reddick's season.
Could Dolphins WR Malik Washington's kick returns make a difference against the Colts?
The touchback rate numbers could be really interesting this weekend. After drastic changes to the kickoff rules in 2024, NFL owners agreed to move the touchback from the 30-yard line up to the 35. I'm wondering if touchbacks will drop precipitously from last season's 64.3% rate, placing more of an importance on kick returns and coverage. That could have an effect across the board, but one matchup that looks particularly intriguing is Washington against Indianapolis' coverage unit.
Last season, Washington was a strong returner with 121 kick return yards over expectation (fifth-most in the league), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, the Colts allowed 8.3 kick return yards over expectation per return (second most), including one touchdown.
Indianapolis had only 13 kick returns from their opponents last season (tied for second fewest), so we'll see if Washington gets a chance to take one out with the new rules.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week
Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins (40.1% rostered)
The sixth-round rookie is De'Von Achane's backup while Jaylen Wright recovers from a lower-leg injury that could keep him out of the first month of the season. Achane is expected to play as he recovers from his own injury (calf), but don't be surprised if Gordon has close to 10 touches in short-yardage and goal-line situations. The Colts allowed 18 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for seventh most in the league. Gordon rushed for 34 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Oklahoma State, winning the 2023 Doak Walker Award as college football's top running back.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos (39.9% rostered)
Despite Denver signing tight end Evan Engram this offseason, Mims has earned a larger target share after showing major upside in the latter half of 2024. Over the final eight games, Mims caught 32 of 37 targets from Bo Nix for 447 yards and six touchdowns. His ability to threaten defenses in the vertical passing game makes him an excellent sleeper, even against the Titans' tough secondary.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (37.5% rostered)
Lawrence is in a great spot against a Panthers defense that allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Carolina's defense also didn't do much to improve this offseason, and Lawrence now has Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter as his top targets. It also helps that Jaguars coach Liam Coen was the architect behind Baker Mayfield's 2024 breakout, where he averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game and finished as the QB4.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens (32.5% rostered)
Bateman played a career-high 17 games in 2024, setting new marks in both receiving yards (765) and touchdowns (nine). While QB Lamar Jackson will continue to run the passing game through Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, Bateman is projected for the third-most targets. (DeAndre Hopkins, who showed signs of decline with the Chiefs last season, is his biggest competition as the tertiary option.) In a matchup against the Bills with one of the highest point totals, Bateman has a strong chance to shine.
Domonique Foxworth explains why the Ravens' season opener vs. the Bills is crucial for securing home-field advantage in the AFC.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (20.2% rostered)
Strange is the Jaguars' starting tight end following Engram's departure. Lawrence has historically targeted his tight ends a lot, and in the eight games Engram was injured last season, Strange recorded 29 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers' defense allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to tight ends in 2024.
Solak: Don't be surprised if ...
The highest-scoring game is Raiders-Patriots. Week 1 is always good for a surprising barn burner or two, and I'll be glued to this matchup Sunday. The Raiders' offense is a particular fascination. Will Chip Kelly go hurry-up? How aggressive will Geno Smith be throwing downfield? Can Ashton Jeanty immediately be a top-10 running back?
And on the other side of the field, Drake Maye has a new offensive coordinator, two new tackles and a new WR1 in Stefon Diggs. Patriots star corner Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is likely out for this one, too. I'm looking for fireworks.
The Bengals finally look good. The opening week has not been kind to Cincinnati in recent seasons. Last year, they lost to the Patriots in a 16-10 snoozefest. In 2023, they suffered a 24-3 embarrassment against the Browns.
But this season, the Bengals totally overhauled their training camp process. Quarterback Joe Burrow played five drives in the preseason, and neither Ja'Marr Chase nor Tee Higgins held out this offseason. The Bengals' offense is ready to come out of the gate fast, and it's an old friend -- that Browns defense -- waiting on the other side.
Ryan Clark says the Cincinnati Bengals' success this season will be determined by their first two games.
Literally anything else happens. Week 1 is a wild time, and we're primed to overreact because we haven't watched live regular-season NFL football in 207 days (but who's counting?). A few reminders from last year's Week 1: The Saints scored 47 points. J.K. Dobbins rushed for 135 yards, while Derrick Henry rushed for 46. The future of the passing game was declared dead in the water. Of course, some things are real -- remember how rough Kirk Cousins looked trying to move in the pocket against the Steelers? Just prepare yourself for chaos.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores
Flores' defensive system creates confusion for opposing quarterbacks due to pressure and late coverage rotation. Last season, the Vikings led the NFL with a blitz rate of 38.4%, and we should expect Flores to heat up the pocket in Chicago on Monday night. Yes, new Bears coach Ben Johnson has experience against Flores and will scheme up answers to pressure. But it's still on Williams, who had a QBR of only 56.4 versus the blitz as a rookie, to identify the post-snap picture and throw with timing when Flores speeds up his internal clock.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 1
Detroit Lions +1.5 at Green Bay Packers
Detroit is built to travel with a seasoned quarterback, one of the most effective rushing offenses and a coaching staff that stays aggressive in key spots. The opening line was 1.5, but is the addition of edge rusher Micah Parsons to Green Bay really worth a full point? He certainly boosts the Packers' pass rush, but the Lions' offensive line is still elite.
Quarterback Jordan Love doesn't get wide receiver Christian Watson back yet from his ACL injury, and the Packers' vertical game could be limited outside of Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Detroit's revamped secondary matches up well. The seasonlong upside is there with the Pack -- but not against this Lions team out of the gate. Grab the points with the better roster.