NRL Round 26 tipping, expert tips, best tips, sure thing, upset chance

The 2025 NRL season has so far been one of the toughest ever for tippers, and as teams head towards the finals it is not going to get any easier. Tipping all the winners each weekend is near impossible, so we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.


The sure thing

Canberra Raiders vs. Wests Tigers, GIO Stadium, Saturday August 30, 3pm (AEST)

The Roosters let the "Sure Thing" tag down last week, but weren't helped at all by halfback Sam Walker's early concussion. This week was a tough choice to make as many of the clubs that are out of contention for the finals are realising that they only have a couple of chances left to feel the joy of winning and to add to their own personal value.

The Tigers were still in contention last week, they were playing in front of their adoring fans at Leichhardt and still couldn't hold it together to beat the Cowboys, despite a healthy second-half lead. They take the lonely trip to Canberra to face the high-flying Raiders with very little left to play for this season.

The Raiders looked to be on their way to a tough defeat at the hands of the Panthers last week, but as they often do, they managed to fight back in the second half, take the game to golden point extra time and win, albeit with a bit of luck in the end. They are travelling nicely towards the minor premiership and will not let the Tigers upset their run.

Round 26 sure thing: Raiders


The toss of the coin

St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, Jubilee Stadium, Friday August 30, 5:30pm (AEST)

Last week's toss of the coin game between the Panthers and Raiders went to golden point extra time and was only half the width of the post away from being a Panthers victory, as the coin predicted. This week I have chosen a game, which on the surface looks fairly clear cut. The Sea Eagles have to win to stay in the hunt for a Top 8 spot and they should have too much class for the Dragons.

Last week the Dragons still had a mathematical shot at the finals and they were totally humiliated by the Rabbitohs. They would have taken a good look at themselves during the week and will be keen to prove to themselves and their fans that they really do care about the proud jersey they wear.

The Sea Eagles have been one of the most unpredictable teams all year, but looked good for the majority of their comfortable victory over the Dolphins last week. Despite appearances, this game really could go either way, but the coin has landed with the Sea Eagles side up.

Toss of the coin game winner: Sea Eagles


The roughie

New Zealand Warriors vs. Parramatta Eels, Go Media Stadium, Friday August 29, 6pm (AEST)

The Warriors had a well-needed win last week against the Titans, but struggled at times. The Eels stood up and turned the Roosters into feather dusters at home.

The Warriors have to keep winning to ensure they remain in the Top 4 and can't afford to slip up against the Eels. But they have been struggling for form since they lost halfback Luke Metcalf, while the Eels have patches of brilliance behind Mitchell Moses, with Dylan Brown looking to find a home in the centres.

The Warriors should win this, but the Eels will be looking to finish off their season on a high and could be worth a tip if you are looking for a roughie.

Round 26 roughie: Eels

Click here for a full guide to NRL Round 26.