NRL Round 11 tipping, expert tips, best tips, sure thing, upset chance

The NRL season has reached Magic Round, with plenty of exciting games lined up for the festival of rugby league at Suncorp Stadium.

Tipping all the winners each weekend is near impossible, so we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.


The sure thing

Penrith Panthers vs. St George Illawarra Dragons, Suncorp Stadium, Sunday May 17, 6:25pm (AEST)

This might be the cheapest shot in this column's inauspicious history, but when the ladder-topping Panthers face the spoon-favourite Dragons, that has to be the definition of a sure thing.

The Panthers faced a real test last week against the Raiders and managed to come through with the two competition points. They are now preparing themselves for the Origin period, where they'll hope to maintain momentum despite losing several players. They certainly wont let this full-strength opportunity against the Dragons pass them by.

The Dragons have recalled much-maligned halfback Kyle Flanagan to their starting side, as they continue their winless season, despite having replaced their coach. Interim coach Dean Young is feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders as each week without a win must cast serious doubts on whether he is the man to extinguish this dumpster fire.

This weekend they will do well not to be completely embarrassed by the Panthers.

Round 11 sure thing: Panthers


The toss of the coin

Parramatta Eels vs. Melbourne Storm, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday May 16, 7:45pm (AEST)

The Eels have been showing an impressive amount of resolve recently. Last week they looked beaten at several stages of their game against the Cowboys, but kept fighting back to secure a golden point victory.

The Storm finally ended their losing streak with an impressive victory over the Tigers last week. The question remains whether they have truly put those poor performances behind them and are ready to begin a charge back up the ladder. I'm not exactly sure.

The Eels need to continue with their hard up-the-middle style and hope they give Mitchell Moses the room he needs to perform his magic. This game could go either way, but I think the Storm might continue to improve and have too much class for the Eels.

Toss of the coin game winner: Storm


The roughie

New Zealand Warriors vs. Brisbane Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, Sunday May 17, 4:05pm (AEST)

The Warriors have been impressive this season and come into this game on the back of a bye. There have been rumblings during the week that last year's star halfback Luke Metcalf is seeking a release after his return from injury has not been enough to permanently displace Tanah Boyd who has been a revelation in the No. 7 jersey for them this season.

The Broncos struggled last week at Brookvale against the Sea Eagles, but they welcome back Adam Reynolds this week, strengthening their spine. The Broncos will not want to let their fans down at Magic Round.

On form, the Warriors should win this, but who knows how sharp they will be after a bye. The Broncos will be fired up and if they can somehow manage to match it up front with the formidable Warriors forwards, they just might spring the upset at Suncorp Stadium.

Round 11 roughie: Broncos

Click here for a full guide to NRL Round 11.