OK, so the lead-in to the AFL finals got a little tedious for a while. But the considerable upside about having half the competition so far ahead of the rest is that there's barely daylight between any of this season's finalists.
Sure, the Cats, Lions and Crows are the frontrunners, but can you really say definitively they've got the measure of the rest of the top eight? Not if the various ups and downs of all the flag contenders in 2025 are any guide.
So, yeah ... this September, anyone really CAN win the premiership. And yeah, there's just as compelling reasons they can't, too! Confused? Allow us to explain...
Adelaide
Why they CAN win the flag
They may not have graced the finals stage since 2017, but the Crows' form in the lead-up to September is impeccable, finishing 18-5, a game ahead of their nearest rival, and none of those losses having been by any more than 19 points. Adelaide has won its past nine games, 12 of the past 13, and is 12-1 on its home deck of Adelaide Oval, where if things go according to plan, it will play twice before grand final day. Strong defensively (fewest points conceded) and offensively (third for points scored), solid and deeper midfield than previously, the Crows appear to have all bases covered.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
A team's flag hopes shouldn't rest on one player, but Izaak Rankine is such a critical part of the Crows' make-up that his four-game suspension for an anti-gay slur might well be the difference between Adelaide's first flag for 27 years or not. As solid as they are, Rankine is the spark, the gamebreaker you need to tip you over the line in the biggest of games. Adelaide has lost already against Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast and Hawthorn, its record against the top eight only 5-5. And the Crows (obviously) lack experience in finals not having appeared since 2017, only eight players on the list having played a final previously.
Geelong
Why they CAN win the flag
In a sea of uncertainty and wild swings in fortune, Geelong are THE reliables, particularly this time of year. The Cats finished second but with the highest percentage, an outstanding 141.5. They won 12 of their last 14 games, were ranked second offensively and fourth defensively, and in the 32 statistical categories measured in Champion Data's premiership standards report, they ranked top six in 24. Apart from the potency up forward provided by Jeremy Cameron, Shannon Neale and Tyson Stengle, they boast star midfielders in Bailey Smith and Max Holmes, and an army of hard-working smalls who keep the pressure on.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
As consistent as they are, the Cats have still come up short this year against a couple of quality rivals in Brisbane and GWS (twice each), both of whom have defeated them at the once-impregnable GMHBA Stadium and on their own grounds. Indeed, Brisbane (which Geelong plays again in the qualifying final) has now beaten the Cats four times out of five, while the Giants have won seven of the past nine against them. Has Geelong been extended enough recently to be in perfect finals nick? The Cats' final six games were against non-finalists, and their two most recent clashes with top eight teams resulted in losses.
Brisbane
Why they CAN win the flag
Of course the reigning premier can win the flag. In fact, Brisbane is much better-placed to do so in 2025 than last year, when it had to come from outside the top four and play three consecutive finals on the road. Now, the Lions are up against Geelong (whom they've beaten four times out of five lately) for a home preliminary final slot. And the Lions' best football is THE best of any of the contenders, explosive and able to put away challengers quickly. They're 7-4 in clashes with other top eight sides this season, and four of their six losses were by 11 points or less. They're equally tough and skillful, too, midfield pair Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley and small forward Zac Bailey typical of that profile.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
Their best is great, but Brisbane has coughed and spluttered at times this season, certainly more than last year's model did on its way to the flag. A recent home loss to Sydney and a 10-goal obliteration against Gold Coast just leave open the possibility that Brisbane can have the odd shocker. Their statistical profile isn't nearly as strong as it was last year, either, Brisbane ranked sixth for attack and eighth for defence, a concern given not one of the past 25 premiership teams has ranked any lower than sixth for points conceded.
Collingwood
Why they CAN win the flag
The Pies have become another version of what commentator Peter McKenna used to say about Hawthorn of the 1980s: "You just can't write 'em off!" Sure, they've struggled with injury and structure at times, but the Pies' incredible will to win keeps them competitive always and a potential thorn in the side of even more favoured flag contenders. They've had big wins against both Brisbane and Hawthorn, beat Fremantle in Perth, too, and Adelaide. Collingwood plays a "finals-effective" pressure/turnover game and ranks highly for territory. It's also strong defensively, ranked No.2 for fewest points conceded despite frequently missing key personnel.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
They'll have a decent crack, but time is finally catching up with the Pies, and injuries like that to key defender Jeremy Howe destabilise key planks of their entire game, ditto the absence of Bobby Hill's brilliance up forward. Their form is less-than-outstanding, too, the narrow win over Melbourne in Round 24 just their second win in seven games. Nor do the Pies prevail in a tight finish nearly so often anymore, four of their seven losses this season by a goal or less.
GWS
Why they CAN win the flag
The Giants only missed a top four berth and a double chance on percentage, and managed to beat three of those four teams finishing above them (Geelong twice), only losing to Adelaide by 18 points. They finished with a 6-3 record in games against top eight teams. What's more, they did so with at times a significant amount of injuries to key players, though there's a good chance Josh Kelly, Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer and Jack Buckley will all be available again against Hawthorn next Saturday. GWS' recent form has been clearly its best of the year, winning nine of its last 10 games, most by handsome margins.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
Their upside is considerable, but there's always the fear in the back of the mind with the Giants of an off day, like that shocker against the Western Bulldogs a few weeks back. Or, more infamously, of a finals fadeout like the semi-final disaster against Brisbane last year. The Giants rely heavily on forward efficiency and aren't a great territory team, not necessarily a great finals recipe. There are five statistical indicators in which all of the past 10 premiership teams have ranked top six, but there's only of those in which GWS ranks top six.
Fremantle
Why they CAN win the flag
Since sliding to 4-5 after nine games, Fremantle has been a beacon of consistency, winning 12 of its past 14 games, and has repeatedly passed big tests (on the road, too, where they are 6-4 this season) against the likes of GWS, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. The Dockers have beaten top team Adelaide and Hawthorn, too, and are 5-3 against the top eight. They're solid midfield, thanks to Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Luke Jackson, and in defence Jordan Clark has been an outstanding source of rebound.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
No doubting their grit in some big moments this year, but the Dockers simply aren't good enough to go all the way yet. They've lost badly against two of the top four in Geelong and Brisbane and even got blown away against St Kilda. And they've won narrowly, seven of their 15 wins coming by just 18 points or less. Their statistical profile remains relatively unflattering, too. In the 32 premiership standards measured by Champion Data, the Dockers rank top six in just three categories. No side has won a flag this century ranked lower than sixth for defence, and Freo is only seventh (along with a mediocre ninth for attack).
Gold Coast
Why they CAN win the flag
Appearing in finals for the first time was THE psychological bogey for the Suns. Now it's been smashed. So what's another couple of September hurdles? Gold Coast has beaten three of this year's top four (Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood) and indeed smashed the reigning premier by 11 goals just a month ago. Structurally, the Suns are sound indeed, Ben King and Sam Collins the bookends, midfield pair Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell arguably the best 1-2 centre square punch in the game. And they measure up statistically, top six for both defence and attack.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
It's been such a massive goal for this club simply to make finals that as much as coach Damien Hardwick may deny it, it would be remarkable if there wasn't some sort of psychological letdown knowing that notch is now on the belt. A road final in Perth is about as tough as it gets, too. Gold Coast is 4-6 in games against the top eight this season. The Suns are also spotting their September rivals enormous amounts of finals experience, Daniel Rioli, John Noble and Ben Long the only Suns who have played any finals football at all.
Hawthorn
Why they CAN win the flag
The Hawks know their absolute best is good enough to match the best in the competition given results this year include a win over ladder leader Adelaide, a 10-goal smashing of Collingwood and a win over GWS, while they lost only narrowly to Geelong, Fremantle, Brisbane and the Crows. Hawthorn is comfortably top six for all the important defensive rankings and behind only Adelaide for both ability to thwart defensive transition and applied pressure. And while Will Day remains a big "out" for the Hawks, the chances of critical link-up runner Josh Weddle returning for the elimination final are increasing by the day.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
The Hawks are solid enough but haven't often reached the same sort of exciting heights their 2024 campaign reached. While they've had some decent wins and pushed other top sides close, their win-loss record against the top eight this season remains an unflattering 3-7. Veteran forward Jack Gunston's season has been quite remarkable, and rewarded with All-Australian selection, but he doesn't get enough consistent support, Hawthorn outside the top six for scores, scores per forward entry and scores from turnover. The Hawks also aren't a great territory team, and territory in finals is critical.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.