Who wins Game 7? Breaking down the paths to victory for San Miguel and Ginebra

Ginebra will again try to rely on defense to keep the game close while San Miguel hopes it can get its loaded offense going. PBA Media Bureau

It's only fitting that the clash between two powerhouses goes the distance.

A series filled with star talent, coaching adjustments, and underlying circumstances will reach its climax Wednesday evening to decide who will challenge TNT's quest to achieve a Grand Slam in the 2025 PBA Philippine Cup. Both San Miguel and Ginebra have traded haymakers across six games, highlighted by stretches of dominance, unexpected heroes, and critical tactical shifts.

San Miguel has leaned heavily on the inside presence of June Mar Fajardo, even being banged up with an injury, alongside their bench depth that has stepped up in key moments. Ginebra, meanwhile, continues to rely on its disciplined system, its stingy defense, and the all-around brilliance of Scottie Thompson.

Game 7 will be a test of execution, composure, and matchups: Who can impose their identity when it matters most?

What have we seen so far

San Miguel has been undefeated in this series when it has scored more than 100 points. Beyond Fajardo's regular dominance, Jericho Cruz has stood out with his scoring coming off the bench. Cruz has averaged 13.2 points on an efficient 66 TS%, including an impressive Game 5 performance.

For Ginebra, turning the game into a defensive slugfest has been their blueprint for success. In their three wins, they have limited San Miguel to 82.7 points per outing on just 38.2% field goal percentage.

But for both teams, overcoming struggles from their main guards offers an easy path for improvement. While San Miguel's CJ Perez has averaged of 18 points per game in this series, it has come with a 46.1 TS percentage. He has also missed all eight of his 4-point attempts. Ginebra's RJ Abarrientos has found ways to make his presence felt with four rebounds and 5.7 assists per game, but the team has to hope that his 3-point shooting clip of 10% (3-of-30) has to improve in Game 7.

X-factor for San Miguel: Don Trollano

San Miguel's base offense revolves around two primary pillars: post touches and ball screen action that involves Fajardo and Perez isolation possessions, whether for the good or the bad. These actions naturally attract multiple defenders, which opens up the floor for others to operate. That's where Don Trollano becomes essential. His basketball IQ and off-ball movement allow him to consistently capitalize against a tilted defense.

In high-pressure settings like Game 7, contributions from players like Trollano can be the difference between a Finals berth and a semifinals exit. When Fajardo commands double teams or Perez draws help on drives, Trollano's positioning as the one-pass-away option gives San Miguel a reliable play finisher who can keep the offense flowing. He's not just a standstill floor spacer - his ability to attack closeouts, finish off the dribble, and cut intelligently into open lanes makes him a seamless fit in Leo Austria's offense.

That chemistry didn't happen overnight. Trollano and Austria share a long history dating back to their UAAP days at Adamson, and that familiarity shows in how Austria utilizes him - trusting him in crucial lineups and keeping him involved in primary offensive reads. Whether spotting up from the corners or making timely cuts behind overhelping defenders, Trollano thrives on reading the game in real time that has made San Miguel hard to beat.

Trollano's production in the semifinals reflects that value: 12.8 points per game on an efficient 58.7 TS%. But more than the numbers, it's Trollano's timing and decision-making that often help unlock San Miguel's offense when primary actions stall.

As Game 7 looms, all eyes may be on Fajardo and Perez -- but Trollano's ability to read and react, to be in the right place at the right time, could quietly swing the momentum in San Miguel's favor.

X-factor for Ginebra: Japeth Aguilar

In this series, the importance of Japeth Aguilar cannot be overstated. With Ginebra's thin frontcourt rotation, much of the responsibility of containing Fajardo has fallen squarely on Aguilar's shoulders. His length, mobility, and timing make him Ginebra's best chance at bothering the eight-time MVP, but even with a 6-foot-9 frame and strong instincts, neutralizing Fajardo remains an uphill task.

That challenge has only been magnified by Aguilar's tendency to get into early foul trouble, particularly in Games 1 and 6, where he picked up multiple fouls in the first half. Aguilar has also struggled with fatigue, cramping late in Game 6 as well. Those early exits forced head coach Tim Cone to rely on smaller, less physically suited defenders like Troy Rosario and Raymond Aguilar to match up against Fajardo in the post. The result? San Miguel capitalized inside and forced Ginebra's defense in rotation.

Offensively, Aguilar can play a pivotal role in making Fajardo work on the other end of the floor. Ginebra has used him effectively in pick-and-roll actions, especially when Fajardo drops back in coverage. If Aguilar can pop into the midrange and confidently knock down open jumpers -- or short roll and make quick decisions -- it stretches San Miguel's defense and forces Fajardo into uncomfortable territory. This added workload could make a difference down the stretch.

But the truth is that this series has not seen the best version of Japeth Aguilar. His numbers -- which now stand at 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds on 47.7% field goal percentage -- have fluctuated throughout the semifinals. Whether it's due to nagging injuries or a dip in performance due to his age, Aguilar's impact on both ends has come in spurts rather than stretches. Still, the beauty of a Game 7 is that it only takes one game -- and Aguilar has the tools and experience to deliver when it matters most.

If he can stay on the floor, stay aggressive, and rise to the moment, he could be the one to finally get them over the San Miguel hurdle.

Prediction: Ginebra wins. It's been pretty rough for them on the offensive end, so a shooting variance might just come at the opportune time in Game 7.