AFC East betting preview: Bills odds-on favorite to take division

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Why Tyler Fulghum is big on the Jets this season (0:55)

Why Tyler Fulghum is big on the Jets this season (0:55)

The race to win the AFC East won't be much of a competition in 2025, at least according to ESPN BET.

At -350, the Buffalo Bills have the shortest odds of any division favorite. The New England Patriots, who went 4-13 last season and finished last in the division, have the second-best odds at +550.

The Miami Dolphins (+900) are the third choice, and the New York Jets (+1800) pull up the rear.

How will things play out this season? Here are the seasonlong odds for the AFC East teams and our favorite bets.


See also: NFC East betting preview
Coming up: AFC North/NFC North (Wednesday)
AFC South/NFC South (Thursday) | AFC West/NFC West (Friday)


Best bets

Bills UNDER 12.5 wins (-190, alt spread)

Pamela Maldonado: The Bills won 13 games last year riding historic turnover luck (+24 differential, best since 2000) and staying absurdly healthy on offense. Both of those are bound for regression. The defense tied for the fourth-most red zone trips allowed and forced the fewest punts, but still survived because of takeaways. That's not sustainable. This year they get a rough net rest disadvantage, with five games after Week 10 where the other team has more prep (Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles), and a tougher late-season slate. Josh Allen is elite, but even he can't cover every flaw.

Jets OVER 5.5 wins (-140)

Liz Loza: Despite implementing a fifth regime change in 10 years, optimism surrounding the Jets organization appears far from flush. The offense has looked decidedly one-note in preseason action, and question marks surrounding the secondary have fueled early frustration. And while the Jets' season opens with matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the schedule eases up in October with tilts versus the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers. The Jets posted a 5-12 record in 2024, but given a softer schedule this go-around, it's likely the squad will improve ever so slightly. The division is lost, but this line is too low.


Check out Tyler Fulghum's three bets for every team.


Patriots OVER 8.5 wins (Even)

Matt Bowen: I'd take a shot on New England after the coaching and personnel upgrades the team made this offseason. New coach Mike Vrabel is a culture setter, and offensive playcaller Josh McDaniels can boost the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Plus, the Patriots used free agency and the draft to bolster the line of scrimmage, while adding key veterans such as wide receiver Stefon Diggs and cornerback Carlton Davis. The crossover games versus the AFC North aren't ideal, but I see a relatively manageable schedule that can get New England past the .500 mark.

AFC East odds

2024: BUF (13-4, 10-7 ATS), NE (4-13, 8-9), MIA (8-9, 7-10), NYJ (5-12, 6-11)


Did you know?

Courtesy ESPN Research

  • The Bills are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the shortest odds to win the AFC championship this season at +325. Those odds would mark the second shortest the Bills have had to win the AFC over the past 25 seasons, according to Sports Odds History; they were 3-1 before the 2022 season. The Bills are 7-1 to win the Super Bowl. Only the Ravens and Eagles, both at +650, have better odds.

  • At +750, new Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is the No. 2 choice on the board to win Coach of the Year, trailing only the Chicago Bears' Ben Johnson (+650). Vrabel won the award in 2021 with the Tennessee Titans.

  • The Dolphins haven't won a postseason game since 2000, the longest active drought in the NFL. Miami is +190 to make the playoffs this season.

  • The Jets are tied for the second-lowest win total projection in the league (5.5), trailing only the Cleveland Browns (4.5).