Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2024 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable. A negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins). Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Dolphins than they did in Week 1, and in the process, they made Daniel Jones look like a fantasy superstar (29.48 fantasy points). The Dolphins had one sack, six quarterback pressures and an 87.5 Total QBR on defense, all of which ranked sixth or worse for the week, and their starting cornerbacks, Storm Duck and Jack Jones, rated in the 13th percentile or worse in Target EPA (Estimated Points Added). That sets Maye, who had an effective if unspectacular Week 1, up for a potentially big day on the road. He brings a degree of mobility that should be particularly attractive in this matchup, especially after Jones scored twice on the ground against this defense.
Others to like: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Cincinnati Bengals); Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Las Vegas Raiders).
Matchup to avoid: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Houston Texans). Though he delivered his fantasy managers 22.58 fantasy points in Week 1, Mayfield's performance was hardly the prettiest. He finished the week in the bottom 10 at the position in completion percentage (53.1%) and yards per attempt (5.2), despite facing what was widely advertised to be a subpar defense in the Atlanta Falcons. Now Mayfield faces the Texans, regarded by many as one of the league's best defenses. One of the things the Texans do best is pressure the passer, having led the league in pass rush win rate in 2024 (48.7%), and Mayfield had a wide disparity in stats when facing pressure last season (21.8 QBR, compared with 71.4 when not pressured).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Carolina Panthers). The Panthers' shoddy run defense fueled Travis Etienne Jr.'s Week 1 rebound, as the fourth-year running back had a league-leading 69 rushing yards over expectation, per Next Gen Stats, and four explosive runs (10-plus yards gained) in an 18.6-point performance. Now the Panthers face Conner, who badly needs a soft matchup like this one after he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry while his backup, Trey Benson, nearly doubled his yardage total despite playing only 34% of the offensive snaps (Conner played 64%). The Panthers will also be without DE Tershawn Wharton, out two to four weeks with a hamstring injury, further strengthening the matchup for the Cardinals running backs.
Others to like: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (at Tennessee Titans); Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (at Detroit Lions). He has a tough go of it on the schedule front to begin this season, facing both of the intra-division elite run defenses in the Minnesota Vikings (9.5 FPTS on Monday night) and now the Lions. Swift was one of the opening week's more disappointing performers, rushing for 20 yards beneath expectation and taking only three of his 17 carries for more than 5 yards, and he was similarly disappointing against his former team in 2024, totaling only 17.7 fantasy points in two meetings. The Lions might have surrendered a rushing touchdown to Josh Jacobs in Week 1, but they otherwise held Green Bay Packers running backs to 3.4 yards per carry.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (at New Orleans Saints). The team's pass catchers have been hit hard by injuries thus far, with George Kittle (hamstring) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) sidelined through at least Week 5 and Jauan Jennings (shoulder) in question for this week after leaving the season opener in the fourth quarter. Pearsall, who led the team in routes (32), receiving yards (108) and average depth of target (19.8 yards from the line of scrimmage) in Week 1, could be in for a leading-man role. That the matchup stacks up this favorably for him, as Saints starting CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Isaac Yiadom surrendered a combined 23.4 fantasy points as the nearest defender in coverage last week, only strengthens Pearsall's sleeper case.
Others to like: Travis Hunter, Jaguars (at Bengals); Stefon Diggs, Patriots (at Dolphins); Calvin Ridley, Titans (vs. Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (at Indianapolis Colts). Dismiss the Colts' Week 1 defensive success as entirely the product of a miserable all-around game by the Dolphins if you wish, but bear in mind that this defense was better than average against opposing WR1s in 2024 (-0.01 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added). CB Xavien Howard, who joined the team in August, had the fifth-best Target EPA among cornerbacks with at least 20 coverage snaps, and safeties Cam Bynum and Nick Cross earned elite grades, in Week 1. Sutton, who was really the only positive note from the Broncos' opening-week receiving game, is in for a tough assignment.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Dolphins). Tyler Warren enjoyed a breakthrough game against the reeling Dolphins in Week 1, turning nine targets into 14.9 fantasy points, while fellow Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox added a 20-yard, second-quarter catch that helped set up the team's second touchdown. That came on the heels of a 2024 season in which the Dolphins were the second-worst schedule adjusted defense against the position over the final eight weeks (3.6 Adjusted FPA). Henry, who tied for a team-leading eight targets and finished second with 66 receiving yards last week, offers enough promise to be a TE1 considering the matchup.
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Warren, Colts (vs. Broncos). Speaking of Warren, he and his Colts couldn't have much more night-and-day contrast in Weeks 1 and 2 matchups. The Broncos were the opening-week leaders in fantasy points scored by the defense (16), Defensive Expected Points Added (20.2) and yards allowed per play (2.4). Daniel Jones' Week 1 performance was one to celebrate, but he's in for a letdown this week, and that's sure to have an adverse impact on Warren's numbers as well.