Barcelona indeed won LaLiga, Liverpool were even better than top-two, and Nottingham Forest very much finished in the top half of the Premier League table. PSG were definitely better without Kylian Mbappe, and Freiburg snagged a top-five finish in the Bundesliga.
Our Early-Season Overreactions for 2024-25 had a fantastic success rate, even if Everton didn't go down, Juventus didn't win Serie A and Brighton still didn't break through.
We know measured predictions, derived from the largest possible sample, are usually the best, and we know that one to two matches aren't enough of a sample to go on. But it's fun to take some semi-wild swings, and I make sure to do it every year. Some sets of overreactions are more successful than others, but based on what we've seen thus far in Europe, here are eight big swings I'm at least semi-comfortable in taking.
1. Either Arsenal or Chelsea are winning the Premier League
Last week I mentioned that one of my favorite storylines to follow this season was how Liverpool and Manchester City both spent big to remodel their attacks, potentially at the expense of their defensive structure. On Saturday, City proceeded to get shredded by a sudden, full-length-of-the-pitch attack against Tottenham Hotspur and eventually fell 2-0. Two days later in Newcastle, Liverpool blew a 2-0 lead despite being a man up -- their fourth blown lead in three matches -- before pulling off another dramatic finish thanks to 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha's match winner deep in stoppage time.
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(The second goal in City's loss came from a terrible passing mistake from keeper James Trafford, an excellent shot-stopper but a guy with questionable skills on the ball. That City acquired him from Burnley for €31 million, two years after ditching him for €17 million, was confusing business considering they already knew about his deficiencies. That they are also now pursuing PSG's Gianluigi Donnarumma, someone with the exact same strength/weakness profile, suggests they are making moves primarily to keep certain players away from rivals, even though it might make them worse at playing Pep Guardiola's style of ball. I'm not sure that's the best way to go about your business.)
City's last three wins in all competitions have come by scores of 4-0, 5-2 and 6-0, but in that same span they've lost matches 4-3 and 2-0. Including the Community Shield, Liverpool have scored nine goals, but allowed six in three matches. They are ridiculously entertaining but are wide open defensively, and that tends to catch up with you over a long season.
You know who haven't been wide open thus far? Arsenal and Chelsea.
Granted, neither the Gunners nor Blues have played a team as solid as Spurs or Newcastle, but Arsenal have had the league's most reliable defense for a while, and Chelsea's defense was nearly impregnable in a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and a 5-1 win over West Ham.
Arsenal and Chelsea have combined to allow just one shot attempt worth more than 0.2 xG in 360 minutes. Meanwhile, Arsenal have attempted five such shots (tied for second most in the league) and Chelsea have attempted nine, nearly twice as many as anyone else. Entering the season, I was concerned about Chelsea constantly shuffling their attacking personnel, and they could still make some more transfer moves both in and out before next week's transfer deadline.
But new additions João Pedro (one goal and two assists) and Estêvão (we'll get to him below) have been dynamite, and Pedro Neto's Club World Cup form has thus far continued into August. Cole Palmer did very little against Palace and didn't play against West Ham because of a minor groin injury, but Chelsea have still been dynamite at both ends of the pitch.
Gab & Juls discuss Arsenal's interest in Bayer Leverkusen centre-back Piero Hincapié.
Arsenal are already dealing with a few minor injuries, and I can't decide whether Chelsea can keep up this attacking pace, or if they're doomed to suffer extra wear-and-tear later on because of their lengthy Club World Cup experience. I also can't decide whether Mikel Arteta can loosen the attacking reins at the right times and avoid dropping unnecessary points this season. Regardless, the idea here is pretty simple: Liverpool and City, the winners of the past eight Premier League titles, both look defensively fragile in ways that tend to damn title races. Be it Gunners or Blues, we might see a changing of the guard this season.
2. Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen won't finish top-four in their leagues
In three combined matches, Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen -- the two clubs that have managed to even briefly break the stranglehold that Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich hold over LaLiga and the Bundesliga in recent years -- have generated one point and failed to assuage preexisting concerns.
The past six months have been pretty dreadful for Atletico. Starting with their 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League in March, they have won nine of 20 matches and averaged just 1.5 points per game in all competitions. They've managed just six clean sheets in that span, and in five matches against "mega-clubs" -- in this case, Real Madrid, Barcelona in LaLiga, and then PSG at the Club World Cup -- they were outscored 11-4. They've also pulled just one point from two matches against Espanyol and suffered losses to Espanyol, Osasuna, Las Palmas and Getafe.
Atletico spent big this summer, bringing in seven players with transfer fees of €15 million or more, and a fast start would have helped to cleanse some of the bad vibes from their early Club World Cup exit. Instead, they're in 13th place in LaLiga after two matchdays.
New addition Álex Baena looked great against Espanyol before missing Elche with a muscle injury, and Antoine Griezmann has been eased in, with 44 minutes in two matches. Improvement is obviously possible. But with top-four rivals Villarreal and Athletic Club both looking excellent out of the gate, it would be advisable that Atleti pick things up sooner rather than later.
Ale Moreno and Steve Nicol question where Florian Wirtz can be most effective for Liverpool.
For Bayer Leverkusen, the hope in handing the reins to Erik ten Hag after Xabi Alonso's departure was that the former's failure at Manchester United was due primarily to a toxic culture that no manager has been able to solve since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. Results have only gotten worse since Ruben Amorim took over, so perhaps Ten Hag's issues -- namely, a passive attack that couldn't create much genuine quality and a passive defense that allowed too many shot attempts -- could be solved by simply bringing him to a club with a positive culture and a recent history of attacking success. After all, his Ajax teams dominated the Eredivisie, especially in attack.
In Ten Hag's first Bundesliga match, Leverkusen looked far more like United than Ajax. They enjoyed 60% possession against Hoffenheim, but they managed just seven shot attempts and only one worth more than 0.13 xG. They scored on a set piece just five minutes in, then attempted just two shots over the next 54 minutes as Hoffenheim charged back to take a 2-1 lead. And after so many late comebacks in the Alonso era, they managed only a failed long-distance effort from potentially Arsenal-bound defender Piero Hincapié after the 78th minute.
All natural disclaimers apply -- it's just one match, and new attacker Malik Tillman didn't play. Plus, for Leverkusen to fall out of the top four, they have to get worse and others have to get better. To say the least, neither RB Leipzig nor Borussia Dortmund gave serious indications of improvement in Matchday 1: RB Leipzig flunked a test at Bayern (6-0), while BVB couldn't shut the door on St. Pauli and watched a 3-1 lead turn into a 3-3 draw at the Millerntor (and then dealt with some locker room drama). Still, Leverkusen's first step was disconcerting.
3. Como will play in Europe next season
For the most part, Serie A looked just as we left it during its first matchday of the season. Napoli and Inter Milan both very much looked the part, beating Sassuolo and Torino by a combined 7-0, while AC Milan needlessly gave away points, losing 2-1 to Cremonese despite a plus-1.7 xG differential -- all was normal. Roma and Juventus both looked solid, too, which means the race for top-four slots should be pretty cluttered.
We did have one relative surprise, however: In front of 12,055 at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como manhandled Lazio 2-0. They enjoyed 63% possession and attempted 19 shots to Lazio's five, and after a sterling debut season (six goals and eight assists in 2024-25), 20-year-old former Real Madrid starlet Nico Paz began the new campaign with a goal and an assist.
Of course, this only continued what we saw late last season. Since April 1, no team has generated more points in Serie A than Como.
Back in May, I wrote that Como's Cesc Fabregas had been one of Europe's best managers in 2024-25, saying, "Fabregas has done a fabulous job, and if the core stays together -- something that doesn't tend to happen in this capitalist universe -- one could see a Europe-worthy team taking shape soon."
Not only did they keep that young core together -- Paz, winger Assane Diao, midfielders Lucas Da Cunha and Máximo Perrone all return this season -- but they added to it, spending eight-digit transfer fees on wingers Jesús Rodriguez (Real Betis), Nicolas Kühn (Celtic) and Jayden Addai (AZ Alkmaar) and attacking midfielder Martin Baturina (Dinamo Zagreb). They brought in veteran Álvaro Morata from AC Milan on loan as well.
Como are aiming high and are hitting all the right notes at the moment, and it might be the coolest story in Italy.
4. Estevao and Richarlison will be more productive than Viktor Gyökeres and Benjamin Sesko
Ale Moreno was impressive with the first Premier League start for teenage star Estêvão, as Chelsea thumped West Ham 5-1.
After what felt like a years-long pursuit, Arsenal finally locked down Sporting CP's Viktor Gyokeres' services with a €65.8 million transfer fee this summer. Manchester United, meanwhile, spent €76.5 million to acquire RB Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko. These were two of the biggest-name forwards on the boards for a long time, and they commanded huge fees.
Gyokeres did score twice in Arsenal's 5-0 romp over Leeds United last weekend, and while the second was a penalty, the first was a nice piece of directness and finishing. At United, Ruben Amorim has only begun to work Sesko into the rotation -- he has played just 62 minutes in two appearances, attempting just two shots worth 0.11 xG in the process.
If Gyokeres simply converts his penalties and gets some tap-ins capitalizing off the work of others, he'll end up with a solid goal tally this year. That's how it works when you're the center forward on a really good team. Sesko obviously doesn't have that luxury: Early this season, United look like the same midtable-at-best team they've been for a couple of years now. Regardless, for the transfer fees and salaries involved, it's fair to wonder whether either or both players will end up worth the money, especially as less expensive forwards potentially play at an equal or higher level.
Richarlison, for instance, has thrived early in the Thomas Frank era at Tottenham Hotspur. In 30% fewer minutes, he's outpacing Gyokeres and Sesko combined.
That Gyokeres and Sesko have combined for four non-penalty shot attempts in 212 minutes is a major red flag. They aren't there to get heavily involved in the pressing or ball progression games -- and they certainly aren't -- but they're supposed to get on the end of a number of decent attempts. Arsenal and United have to hope that their involvement picks up.
Meanwhile, in just 113 minutes of action, 18-year-old Estevao, acquired by Chelsea from Palmeiras for a relatively modest €34 million, has been one of the most active players in the Premier League. He tries stuff. He has more progressive carries (10) and one-on-one attempts (nine) than Richarlison, Gyokeres and Sesko combined (nine and eight, respectively). Starting for Cole Palmer on short notice Friday, he assisted Enzo Fernández's 33rd-minute goal to put Chelsea up 3-1, and his combined NPxG+xA (see below) is among the best in the league. Again: He has played only 113 minutes!
(NPxG+xA is non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists from completed passes. It's a gross-looking acronym, but a good way of judging a player's general creation abilities without some of the randomness that comes from which shots actually go in the net.)
Estevao was almost certainly intended to be a bench option this season, but his early productivity could create a potential conundrum for Enzo Maresca in that regard. But it's a pretty good (and relatively cheap) conundrum to have.
5. Eintracht Frankfurt will test Bayern Munich and finish top-two in Germany
Ale Moreno discusses transfer links between Chelsea striker Nicolas Jackson and Bayern Munich.
Indeed, it was a pretty poor first weekend for most of the more aspirational German clubs: Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart combined for one point between them. Eintracht Frankfurt, however, laid waste to Werder Bremen, winning 4-1 with two goals from 20-year-old Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, a goal and two assists from 19-year-old Can Uzun and an assist each from 21-year-old Hugo Larsson and 22-year-old Farès Chaïbi.
In a single calendar year, Eintracht lost Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool), Omar Marmoush (Manchester City) and Willian Pacho (PSG) for a combined €210 million, and they seemed to make a concerted effort to get a little bit older in signing forward Jonathan Burkhardt (24), winger Ritsu Doan (27) and right back Rasmus Kristensen (27) this summer. But here they are, fresh off their best Bundesliga finish in 32 seasons (third place) and once again winning with youngsters.
Eintracht have a good thing going right now, with top-notch talent evaluation and pretty stable leadership with manager Dino Toppmoller and sporting director Markus Krosche. The club seems to understand itself in a way that BVB and RBL are struggling with at the moment. This could easily be the second-best team in Germany, but obviously challenging Bayern will require some help from Bayern. The defending champs looked spectacular in their 6-0 dismantling of RBL. Michael Olise scored twice, newcomer Luis Díaz had a goal and two assists, Serge Gnabry had two assists, and Harry Kane swooped in with a second-half hat trick as well. The win served as a reminder that while this summer hasn't gone as planned from a transfers perspective, the lineup itself is still absurdly talented.
Bayern are still awfully thin, though. Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies are still out for a while, and the club is still trying openly to reel in another attacker for the rotation. (They've been stuck in the following loop for a while now: "Hey Chelsea, would you loan out Nicolas Jackson or Christopher Nkunku?" "No loans, only full transfers." "OK, but we only want a loan." "No loans, only full transfers.") It's possible that they end up giving quite a few minutes to youngsters like Jonah Kusi-Asare (18), Lennart Karl (17) and Wisdom Mike (16), and while that honestly might be a great thing long-term, it could make them vulnerable this season if a challenger is organized enough.
Eintracht look awfully organized.
6. Two promoted Premier League teams are staying up (because Wolves and West Ham are going down)
Look again at the Premier League xG chart up at the top of this piece. The most dominant teams were in the bottom-right portion, with the most xG created and least allowed. Wolves and West Ham are currently the two teams furthest in the upper-left. Through four combined games, they have zero points with one goal scored and 13 allowed. Granted, that includes a couple of losses to title contenders -- Chelsea 5-1 over West Ham, Manchester City 4-0 over Wolves -- but it also includes West Ham's 3-0 loss to newly promoted Sunderland and Wolves' meek 1-0 loss to Bournemouth in which they attempted just six shots worth 0.5 xG.
Considering these two teams began the season tied as the worst non-promoted teams in our Premier League power rankings, poor form isn't a surprise. But this is pretty dreadful stuff. Granted, Everton managed to recover from an abysmal start last season (they lost their first four matches by a combined 13-4 margin), but considering all three promoted teams have shown hints of life thus far -- Sunderland rolled over West Ham, Leeds were in control for most of a 1-0 win over Everton and Burnley took Sunderland down 2-0 -- this might not be the best year to mess around.
7. Rangers won't finish top-two in Scotland
The 2024-25 season was a frustrating one for Rangers: They finished second in the Scottish Premiership, as close to third-place Hibernian as first-place Celtic. It was their fourth straight second-place finish, and left them with only one top-division title in the past 14 seasons. They fired manager Philippe Clement in late February despite a decent Europa League showing.
With new ownership, new manager Russell Martin (most recently of Southampton) and a host of new signings, they began 2025-26 with fresh hope. And they have stumbled.
Wins over Panathinaikos and Viktoria Plzen earned them a spot in the Champions League qualification final, but they got rocked 3-1 by Club Brugge at the Ibrox Stadium in the first leg (the return fixture is Wednesday night), and they're already six points behind Celtic after just three Premiership matches, all 1-1 draws, against Motherwell, Dundee and St. Mirren. They've fallen out of the top 100 in Opta's power ratings (they're 122nd), and while everyone else besides Celtic is ranked in the 300s or (much) worse, the next-best teams -- Hibernian and Hearts -- have started the year well (and Hearts won't have to worry about European play).
This is probably the biggest overreaction on the list -- no one has finished within single-digit points of either of Scotland's two giants since 2017-18, when Aberdeen nipped Rangers for second -- but that's what overreaction lists are for! And hey, the gap between Rangers and the third-best team has already been cut from 35 points in 2022-23 to 17 in each of the past two years. Who's to say it can't shrink by that same amount once more?
8. Nicolas Pépé is about to have a career year
They haven't had to play anyone particularly dangerous thus far, but no one in LaLiga has dominated their first two matches as much as Villarreal. The 2022 Champions League semifinalists veered off-course with an eighth-place finish in 2023-24 but rallied to snag a Champions League berth last year and charged out of the gate with a 2-0 win over 10-man Real Oviedo (back in the first division for the first time in 24 years) and a 5-0 pummeling of Girona (16th last season). They've scored the most goals in the league, they've allowed none, and they have the third-most progressive passes (behind Real Madrid and Barcelona) and are averaging the third-most passes per possession. They're completing through-balls and crosses and are just playing beautiful, dominant ball.
What has changed this season for third-year manager Marcelino? How are they looking so good without last year's assists leader, Alex Baena (off to Atletico Madrid), or 11-goal scorer Thierno Barry (Everton)? Well, new right back Santiago Mouriño, acquired from Atletico, has looked good, and Tajon Buchanan has scored three goals in 133 minutes upon his return from an Inter Milan loan. But the string-puller thus far has been a player you might have forgotten about.
Within Europe's Big Five leagues, among players with at least 60 minutes ....
‐ 110 players are averaging at least 0.5 xG per 90 minutes.
‐ Nine of those 110 are also averaging at least 0.5 xA per 90.
‐ Four of those nine are also averaging at least 5.5 defensive interventions.
‐ Only one of those four is also averaging at least 9.0 progressive passes.
Whatever you want from a forward in 2025-26, 30-year-old Nicolas Pépé is delivering it. He has a goal and an assist, and only Real Madrid's Arda Güler and Sevilla's Dodi Lukebakio have more chances created. And if you like that fancy NPxG+xA measure above, only Erling Haaland has generated more of that among players in the Big Five leagues. And Pépé has done this while playing only 145 of 180 minutes, 82 as a right midfielder.
After a 22-goal, 11-assist season with Lille in 2018-19, Pépé made a big-money move to Arsenal and watched his career fly off track. He has averaged only five league goals and three assists per season since. But as long as you can remain employed, you can find your way back on to the course. And both Pépé and Villarreal are very much back on the course early in 2025-26.