Formula 1's summer break always coincides with the question that can dominate the middle portion of the year: who is going where?
Traditionally the August break is when the "silly season," which might otherwise be known as a transfer window or free agency in other sports, shifts into high gear. Unlike those other sports, however, there is no defined time a driver can decide to move teams. Lewis Hamilton signed his 2025 Ferrari contract before he had even done preseason for Mercedes in 2024, for example, but it is perhaps not surprising that the man with more records than anyone else broke the convention.
The resumption of a season can often be busy. This year a European doubleheader, the Dutch Grand Prix (Aug. 31) and the Italian Grand Prix (Sept. 7) promise to be dominated by talk of 2026 signings. This year's silly season has a new feel to it, with a brand new team, Cadillac, joining the grid next year, meaning two new available seats expanding the field from 20 to 22 drivers.
Which teams are locked in for 2026?
• McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
• Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
• Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
• Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
• Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto
Usually, the weeks and months either side of August are busiest. Until very recently, there was a big cork in the bottle that appeared to have slowed everything else down: Max Verstappen's future.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff confirmed the Silver Arrows' interest in the four-time world champion, and such a bombshell signing would've had ramifications up and down the pit lane. Other teams were waiting in the wings, ready to pounce should a Verstappen-to-Mercedes switch suddenly make George Russell available.
Ultimately, that did not play out, with Verstappen confirming he is staying with Red Bull for 2026. That leaves an obvious place to start this round up of the current state of affairs.
Mercedes
Now that Verstappen has gone into the summer break third in the championship, thus not triggering the performance clause in his contract that would have allowed him to walk away from Red Bull, the identity of Mercedes' driver lineup next season appears to be clear. Russell, out of contract at the end of the season, did not have a new deal in front of him when he left the Hungarian Grand Prix for the summer break, but the process of signing an extension is underway.
The length of that extension is one item to keep an eye on. Sources with knowledge of the driver market expect Mercedes to offer Russell a single-year deal to keep open the prospect of getting Verstappen next season, and while Russell is keen for a longer deal, his situation is complicated by the fact that he both drives for and is managed by Mercedes, limiting his leverage in negotiations. Rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli has struggled of late but is expected to be retained for 2026.
With a growing belief internally that Mercedes will be competitive under the new regulations being ushered in for 2026, Wolff is in a somewhat luxurious position. Giving Russell and Antonelli short-term deals will give the team flexibility next year in what is likely to be a more wide-open driver market. Hamilton's Ferrari deal expires at the end of next season, and any departure or retirement from the seven-time world champion might create a ripple effect across the grid, while Verstappen is likely to want out again if Red Bull is still uncompetitive 12 months from now.
Cadillac
With the Verstappen-Mercedes situation now clear, the incoming Cadillac outfit -- which will become the 11th team on the grid next season -- will dominate the attention in the silly season, with two available seats at an all-new project. The American team, overseen by General Motors and run by former Manor boss Graeme Lowdon, has made it clear that announcing its drivers has been low on the list of priorities this year as it focuses on building the operation from the ground up.
Lowdon has made a point of speaking to as many drivers as possible since the team's entry was confirmed in March, but two have appeared standouts from the beginning. Although Cadillac wanted an American driver onboard when its interest in joining the grid first became public, the realities of Formula 1 has made this option less likely.
With experience set to be key for the new team, race-winning free agents Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas are understood to be top of the team's wish list for the new season. Sources have told ESPN that Cadillac approached Pérez almost as soon as it was able to after he was axed by Red Bull last year, while talks have been ongoing with Bottas for a while. News on one of them might even come ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August.
Bottas teased a move to Cadillac earlier this year in a viral clip that saw him approaching a parked Cadillac road car and commenting how nice the seat was. The Finnish driver, who won 10 races across five seasons at Mercedes, has been without a race seat since leaving Sauber at the end of last year.
A left-field option might exist for Bottas (see below), and should Cadillac miss out on one or both of its primary targets, it might be tricky to find the same kind of experience. One obvious other race winner has ruled himself out: ESPN has been told that the popular Daniel Ricciardo considers himself retired from motor racing altogether.
Other fallback options to Pérez and Bottas do exist. Lowdon also manages former Sauber driver Zhou Guanyu, who has gained experience as Ferrari's reserve driver this year, but he has also spoken highly of former Haas driver Mick Schumacher, son of seven-time champion Michael, who has been lobbying hard for another F1 opportunity. Schumacher has been out of F1 since he was dropped by Haas at the end of 2023.
In terms of Americans, options are slim. IndyCar's Colton Herta was touted as a front-runner when the Cadillac bid -- then fronted by Andretti -- was first made public, but he has distanced himself from the opportunity and appears unlikely to finish the year with the IndyCar championship finish required for the super licence points he would need to be eligible for an F1 seat. Formula 2 championship contender Jak Crawford is a possibility and told ESPN last month that he would consider himself a front-runner if he was able to win the feeder series title this season -- he sits second in the standings.
Alpine
Pierre Gasly has scored 100% of Alpine's points this season, highlighting not only how much he has developed since leaving Red Bull but also how much his team has struggled to find an adequate teammate in the other car. Jack Doohan was placed under immediate pressure when Alpine signed Franco Colapinto as reserve driver before the season had begun, and the Australian driver failed to deliver. Doohan was replaced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, but Colapinto has fared little better.
The Argentinian driver is on loan from Williams, where he became an overnight sensation as Logan Sargeant's replacement last year, but the shine from that campaign has quickly worn off with a series of very poor results and crashes since making the step up. It has not diminished his financial clout, however. Colapinto arrived at Alpine with significant backing from a collection of Latin American companies, which has been vital in his elevation to the main team.
There have been conflicting reports about Colapinto's position at the team. Publicly, Alpine executive adviser Flavio Briatore has said the Argentine's form must improve quickly if he wants to stay in the seat, and the team was linked last month with a midseason move for Bottas. Such a swoop would likely tie down the Finnish driver into 2026 as well -- it would also not be a stretch given Bottas' longtime link with Mercedes, who will supply Alpine with engines beginning next year -- but that appears to be contingent on whether he takes the Cadillac seat.
Reserve driver Paul Aron could also get a chance to prove himself at the tail end of the year. Ahead of the break, sources with knowledge of the team's thinking suggested to ESPN that Colapinto might stay beyond 2025 regardless of whether his form improves, such is the importance of the money he brings with him.
Red Bull and Racing Bulls
You'd almost forgotten about this one, hadn't you? While so much focus over the past two months was on Verstappen, it is worth remembering the future of his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, is unclear beyond this season. Tsunoda was promoted to the team in place of Liam Lawson after just two races this season but has struggled brutally in the seat alongside the four-time world champion.
Nate Saunders explains why there's hope for Yuki Tsundoa's Red Bull future, despite being off the pace of teammate Max Verstappen.
The imminent end of Red Bull's partnership with Honda -- who gave the team a discount on its engine supply as part of the deal to promote Tsunoda in the first place -- made it unlikely the Japanese driver would continue beyond 2025, but that picture is harder to make sense of now that Christian Horner is no longer leading the team. Horner had been one of the biggest obstacles in Tsunoda's internal progression, but the former's replacement, Laurent Mekies, is a big fan, having worked with Tsunoda as team boss of Racing Bulls last year and at the beginning of 2025.
Weirdly, Tsunoda's plight might also be helped by what has grown into a consensus in F1: Red Bull has built a horribly difficult car to drive for anyone who isn't Verstappen. The fact that Gasly, Pérez, Lawson and Alex Albon all have ultimately flamed out alongside the world champion before Tsunoda, who was sublime in 2024 for the junior team, has only reinforced the feeling that Red Bull needs to work on the car as much as it needs to work on the driver. The technically minded Mekies has already hinted as much, meaning Tsunoda might well have a lifeline in terms of staying longer term.
Red Bull junior driver Arvid Lindblad, 18, appears to be on a rocket ship up the junior categories. The Brit became the youngest victor in F2 by winning in Jeddah as a rookie earlier this year. It's been a mixed season, though, and Red Bull might be reluctant to promote him too early. Should the path up to Formula 1 be the one they pick for the exciting teenager, there's one obvious scenario. Sources within Red Bull have told ESPN the only thing close to certain within the company's two F1 teams at the moment is that Lawson will not get another opportunity at the senior team, which would suggest he would be the one on the chopping block should there be a strong desire to promote Lindblad in 2026.
Mekies might also offer Lawson a lifeline similar to Tsunoda. Mekies managed Lawson when he replaced Ricciardo last year, and it was his form in the tail end of the season that earned the New Zealander his short-lived promotion to Red Bull -- Mekies was also the man waiting for Lawson with open arms when he was demoted. Sources close to Lawson have told ESPN that the Kiwi has only just recently shown glimpses of his former self on and off track, suggesting the knock to confidence was huge. With Mekies now in a position that should have influence in the wider driver decisions of the company, the prospect of Lindblad getting another year to develop and Lawson having one more season (his first uninterrupted F1 campaign at that) does not seem as farfetched as it might have a few months ago.
Of course, should Tsunoda be booted at the end of the year anyway, then everything would change: the likely scenario then would be Isack Hadjar moving up and Lindblad partnering Lawson at the junior team. With no major names on the market and a desire to rebuild both the perception of Red Bull's driver decisions and the strength of its pipeline generally, do not expect to see any hasty decisions made here: the Austrian company can bide its time before deciding the best way to proceed.