In 2024, underdogs enjoyed their most successful regular season ever in the modern college football era. Underdogs pulled off 231 outright upsets in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups and won 29.0% of games last regular season.
Both marks are records for any season in the FBS era (1978), according to ESPN Research. Home underdogs were especially successful, winning 33.0% of games, the highest mark since 2004.
The slew of upsets occurred during a season in which the average point spread tightened to 10.44, a 40-year low. It was the sixth consecutive season that the average point spread in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups dropped, increasing the implied probability of upsets. The smaller lines did their job, however, with underdogs covering the spread in a very even 51.2% of games.
The "over" also enjoyed its most successful season in years, with 52.1% of FBS games going over the total, the highest rate in ESPN Research's database, which goes back to 2000. Games averaged 53.6 points last season, while the average over/under total at sportsbooks was 52.1.
Will the trends continue this season? Heck if we know, but we definitely look forward to following along during a season with a bevy of betting storylines from Texas to North Carolina and beyond.
Betting public loves Coach Prime more than Belichick
Coach Deion Sanders' arrival at Colorado in 2023 drove the betting public wild. The Buffaloes, who were coming off a one-win campaign, became one of the most popular bets on the board at sportsbooks around the nation leading into Sanders' first season at the helm.
Bill Belichick has not had the same impact on North Carolina.
Entering Belichick's first season in the college ranks, the long-shot Tar Heels, who can be found upwards of 500-1 to win the national title, are receiving minimal interest from bettors. At BetMGM sportsbooks, North Carolina has attracted 50% fewer bets to win the national title than Colorado. The Tar Heels are not among the five most popular picks to win the ACC at ESPN BET.
While the betting public isn't sold on North Carolina, oddsmakers have upgraded the Tar Heels in their power ratings because of Belichick, who covered the spread in 56.2% of games during his NFL career. Joey Feazel, head football oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, estimated that Belichick is worth upwards of two points to the Tar Heels.
"We have not seen North Carolina experience the Deion Sanders/Colorado effect," Feazel told ESPN. "A lot of excitement around North Carolina, including with sharper bettors, has been betting against the Tar Heels."
Feazel pointed to the significant line movement against North Carolina in its opener against TCU. The Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Horned Frogs, but the line has flipped to TCU -3.5.
"I would imagine if Belichick were not the coach, we would be looking at TCU -4.5," Feazel said.
Top of oddsboard cluttered with contenders
On June 24, just before noon, a bettor in Arizona placed three six-figure futures bets on the college football national championship with BetMGM.
According to copies of the tickets provided by BetMGM, the bets were:
$300,000 on Texas at 5-1. Potential net win: $1.5 million.
$200,000 on Penn State at 15-2. Potential net win: $1.5 million.
$115,000 on Clemson at 13-1. Potential net win: $1.49 million.
All three teams are in the mix entering a season with no overwhelming favorite. Eight teams are odds-on favorites to make the second 12-team College Football Playoff: Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame and Clemson.
Texas and Ohio State, who meet in Week 1, sit atop the oddsboard at every sportsbook. FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars are among the books with Texas as the favorite. The Longhorns and Buckeyes are co-favorites at DraftKings and ESPN BET. Georgia, Penn State, Clemson and Oregon make up the next tier of national championship contenders on oddsboards.
"Betting has been steady around Texas so far, but it certainly feels more wide open than in previous years," Feazel said. "The hot teams of the summer [with bettors] have been Clemson, LSU and Texas."
The Longhorns have attracted more bets and more money than any other team in Caesars' odds to win the College Football Playoff, and Feazel says they're the top team in his preseason power ratings. Yet Texas begins the week as a 2.5-point road underdog to Ohio State in the marquee matchup of a packed first full Saturday of the season. Barring significant line movement, the Longhorns will be the first team ranked No. 1 in the initial AP Top 25 to be an underdog in their season opener.
However, after opening with Ohio State as 3-point favorites, the line has been moving toward the underdog Longhorns. As of Monday, the Buckeyes were only 1.5-point favorites at ESPN BET.
Arch and the Heisman race
Like the national title, the odds to win the Heisman Trophy are balanced at the top. Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the consensus favorite, but at +650, he has the longest odds for any preseason favorite over the past 15 seasons.
At DraftKings, Manning has attracted more than three times as many bets to win the Heisman Trophy as any other player on the board, but the total money wagered is much more evenly distributed. Entering the week, the total money bet on Manning was neck-and-neck with South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16-1), a popular pick at multiple sportsbooks. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (9-1) and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (11-1) have each attracted their fair share of the action as well. At 11-1, Smith has the shortest odds of any receiver since 2013, according to ESPN Research.
ESPN BET added Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood in mid-August, after he turned 18 years old. He opened at 40-1, the shortest odds for a true freshman on the board.
Four-year odds & ends
Numbers from the past four seasons.
Home teams in FBS-versus-FBS matchups have gone 1,434-1,433 against the spread, with 26 pushes, according to ESPN research.
Top 5 teams at covering the spread:
1. Notre Dame 69.1%
2. UNLV 64.7%
3. Jacksonville State 63.0%
4. Penn State 61.1%
5. Michigan 60.7%
Bottom 5 teams at covering the spread:
1. Stanford 31.9%
2. Kent State 34.0%
3. New Mexico 36.2%
4. North Carolina 38.5%
5. Purdue 39.2%
Coaches with best ATS record:
1. Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham 18-7 ATS
2. Tulane's Jon Sumrall 27-12 ATS
3. Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman 28-14 ATS
4. Indiana's Curt Cignetti 22-11 ATS
5. Colorado's Deion Sanders 16-8 ATS
* Minimum five games
Coaches with worst ATS record:
1. Middle Tennessee State's Derek Mason 2-9 ATS
2. UNLV's Dan Mullen 3-7 ATS
3. Oregon State's Trent Bray 4-8 ATS
4. Louisiana-Monroe's Bryant Vincent 8-14 ATS
5. Georgia State's Dell McGee 4-7 ATS
* Minimum five games
Highest percentage of overs:
1. USC 67.3%
2. Arkansas 64.0%
3. Indiana 63.3%
4. Memphis 60.8%
5. Pittsburgh and Tennessee 60.8
Highest percentage of unders:
1. Mississippi 18-34
2. Illinois 18-30-2
3. Miami, Ohio 20-33-1
4. Sam Houston 10-16
5. Nebraska 19-29-1